Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 12–24 August 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 43.6% | 42.0–45.3% | 41.5–45.7% | 41.1–46.1% | 40.4–46.9% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 20.4% | 19.1–21.8% | 18.7–22.2% | 18.4–22.5% | 17.8–23.2% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.1–11.1% | 8.8–11.4% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.2–12.2% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.9–7.5% | 5.7–7.8% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.1–8.4% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 4.9% | 4.3–5.7% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.1% | 3.6–6.5% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1.4% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.6% |
| Aliança | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.0% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.7–2.3% |
| LIVRE | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 128 | 122–133 | 122–134 | 120–135 | 118–137 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 57 | 53–59 | 53–62 | 52–62 | 50–64 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 22 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 18–26 | 17–28 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 13 | 9–15 | 8–17 | 8–17 | 7–18 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–11 | 4–11 | 4–11 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1 | 4 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| Aliança | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| LIVRE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 120 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 122 | 8% | 96% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 124 | 4% | 86% | |
| 125 | 8% | 82% | |
| 126 | 9% | 74% | |
| 127 | 4% | 64% | |
| 128 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 129 | 6% | 48% | |
| 130 | 7% | 42% | |
| 131 | 18% | 35% | |
| 132 | 2% | 17% | |
| 133 | 9% | 16% | |
| 134 | 2% | 6% | |
| 135 | 4% | 5% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 53 | 19% | 96% | |
| 54 | 11% | 77% | |
| 55 | 4% | 67% | |
| 56 | 5% | 62% | |
| 57 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 58 | 34% | 50% | |
| 59 | 7% | 16% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 61 | 3% | 8% | |
| 62 | 4% | 5% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 10% | 98% | |
| 19 | 4% | 88% | Last Result |
| 20 | 15% | 84% | |
| 21 | 14% | 69% | |
| 22 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 23 | 10% | 40% | |
| 24 | 22% | 30% | |
| 25 | 4% | 9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 7% | 98% | |
| 9 | 9% | 91% | |
| 10 | 8% | 82% | |
| 11 | 13% | 74% | |
| 12 | 10% | 61% | |
| 13 | 19% | 51% | Median |
| 14 | 18% | 32% | |
| 15 | 5% | 15% | |
| 16 | 3% | 9% | |
| 17 | 6% | 6% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 95% | |
| 6 | 34% | 86% | |
| 7 | 41% | 51% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 9% | |
| 11 | 7% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 24% | 93% | |
| 4 | 45% | 69% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 24% | |
| 6 | 14% | 14% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Aliança
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 30% | |
| 2 | 24% | 24% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Iniciativa Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 6% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
LIVRE
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 162 | 100% | 159–166 | 158–166 | 158–167 | 155–169 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 150 | 100% | 145–155 | 143–155 | 143–155 | 141–159 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 140 | 100% | 136–144 | 135–145 | 135–146 | 133–148 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 128 | 100% | 122–133 | 122–134 | 120–135 | 118–137 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 64 | 0% | 59–65 | 59–69 | 59–69 | 57–70 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 158 | 5% | 98% | |
| 159 | 13% | 93% | |
| 160 | 13% | 79% | |
| 161 | 4% | 67% | |
| 162 | 25% | 63% | |
| 163 | 3% | 37% | Median |
| 164 | 11% | 34% | |
| 165 | 5% | 24% | |
| 166 | 15% | 19% | |
| 167 | 2% | 4% | |
| 168 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 143 | 7% | 98.8% | |
| 144 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 145 | 9% | 90% | |
| 146 | 8% | 82% | |
| 147 | 8% | 74% | |
| 148 | 4% | 65% | |
| 149 | 2% | 62% | |
| 150 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 151 | 3% | 47% | |
| 152 | 9% | 44% | |
| 153 | 8% | 35% | |
| 154 | 10% | 27% | |
| 155 | 14% | 16% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 135 | 6% | 98% | |
| 136 | 3% | 92% | |
| 137 | 2% | 88% | |
| 138 | 9% | 87% | |
| 139 | 23% | 78% | |
| 140 | 11% | 55% | |
| 141 | 10% | 44% | Median |
| 142 | 8% | 34% | |
| 143 | 5% | 26% | |
| 144 | 14% | 22% | |
| 145 | 4% | 7% | |
| 146 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 148 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 120 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 122 | 8% | 96% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 124 | 4% | 86% | |
| 125 | 8% | 82% | |
| 126 | 9% | 74% | |
| 127 | 4% | 64% | |
| 128 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 129 | 6% | 48% | |
| 130 | 7% | 42% | |
| 131 | 18% | 35% | |
| 132 | 2% | 17% | |
| 133 | 9% | 16% | |
| 134 | 2% | 6% | |
| 135 | 4% | 5% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 59 | 10% | 98.6% | |
| 60 | 16% | 89% | |
| 61 | 2% | 73% | |
| 62 | 3% | 70% | |
| 63 | 8% | 68% | |
| 64 | 35% | 60% | Median |
| 65 | 15% | 25% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 67 | 3% | 9% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 69 | 5% | 5% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Pitagórica
- Commissioner(s): Jornal de Notícias
- Fieldwork period: 12–24 August 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1525
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.59%