Opinion Poll by GfK Metris for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 24 August–5 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 41.6% 39.4–43.8% 38.7–44.5% 38.2–45.0% 37.2–46.1%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 22.7% 20.9–24.7% 20.4–25.3% 20.0–25.8% 19.1–26.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.9% 7.7–10.3% 7.4–10.7% 7.1–11.1% 6.6–11.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.6% 4.5–7.9% 4.1–8.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 5.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.7% 3.3–7.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.1%
LIVRE 0.7% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.2%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.2%
Aliança 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.2%
Chega 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 120 115–129 114–131 111–132 108–136
Partido Social Democrata 89 67 60–70 59–71 57–73 53–76
Bloco de Esquerda 19 19 17–24 16–24 15–24 12–28
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 13 9–15 7–16 6–16 5–18
CDS–Partido Popular 18 6 4–8 4–10 4–11 2–15
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 6 4–6 3–8 3–9 3–9
LIVRE 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chega 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.5% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.2%  
110 0.9% 99.0%  
111 2% 98%  
112 0.4% 96%  
113 0.7% 96%  
114 3% 95%  
115 12% 92%  
116 9% 80% Majority
117 5% 71%  
118 9% 66%  
119 6% 57%  
120 3% 52% Median
121 9% 49%  
122 5% 40%  
123 3% 35%  
124 1.0% 32%  
125 4% 31%  
126 2% 27%  
127 11% 25%  
128 4% 14%  
129 2% 10%  
130 3% 8%  
131 2% 5%  
132 1.2% 3%  
133 0.4% 1.5%  
134 0.3% 1.0%  
135 0.2% 0.7%  
136 0.2% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 0.7% 99.4%  
55 0.3% 98.6%  
56 0.6% 98%  
57 0.4% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 5% 95%  
60 4% 91%  
61 14% 87%  
62 3% 73%  
63 3% 70%  
64 5% 67%  
65 2% 62%  
66 8% 60%  
67 20% 52% Median
68 6% 32%  
69 14% 26%  
70 4% 12%  
71 4% 9%  
72 0.7% 5%  
73 1.3% 4%  
74 1.4% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.1%  
76 0.1% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.8%  
12 0.1% 99.6%  
13 0.7% 99.5%  
14 1.0% 98.7%  
15 1.4% 98%  
16 2% 96%  
17 10% 95%  
18 28% 85%  
19 10% 58% Last Result, Median
20 4% 48%  
21 15% 44%  
22 10% 29%  
23 4% 19%  
24 13% 16%  
25 0.4% 2%  
26 0.9% 2%  
27 0.1% 1.1%  
28 0.9% 0.9%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 1.0% 99.9%  
6 3% 98.9%  
7 2% 95%  
8 3% 94%  
9 21% 91%  
10 8% 70%  
11 4% 62%  
12 1.4% 58%  
13 9% 57% Median
14 35% 48%  
15 4% 12%  
16 5% 8%  
17 2% 2% Last Result
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 0.6% 98%  
4 16% 98%  
5 1.3% 81%  
6 38% 80% Median
7 31% 42%  
8 1.4% 10%  
9 3% 9%  
10 3% 6%  
11 1.2% 3%  
12 1.2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.6%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.5% 100%  
3 7% 99.5%  
4 16% 92%  
5 8% 77%  
6 60% 68% Median
7 3% 9%  
8 3% 5%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 153 100% 147–159 144–161 144–161 141–164
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 140 100% 134–148 132–150 130–152 128–155
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 133 100% 125–140 125–141 124–143 120–145
Partido Socialista 86 120 80% 115–129 114–131 111–132 108–136
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 72 0% 66–77 65–78 64–80 61–83

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 0.2% 99.7%  
142 0.7% 99.4%  
143 1.2% 98.7%  
144 3% 98%  
145 0.8% 95%  
146 2% 94%  
147 3% 92%  
148 7% 89%  
149 10% 82%  
150 4% 72%  
151 9% 67%  
152 7% 59% Median
153 12% 51%  
154 4% 39%  
155 4% 35%  
156 5% 31%  
157 11% 26%  
158 3% 15%  
159 5% 12%  
160 2% 7%  
161 3% 5%  
162 1.0% 2%  
163 0.6% 1.5%  
164 0.7% 0.9%  
165 0.2% 0.3%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.3% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.6%  
129 2% 99.5%  
130 0.4% 98%  
131 0.5% 97%  
132 3% 97%  
133 2% 94%  
134 7% 92%  
135 6% 85%  
136 4% 79%  
137 7% 75%  
138 3% 69%  
139 15% 65% Median
140 8% 51%  
141 2% 43%  
142 5% 41%  
143 4% 36%  
144 4% 32%  
145 2% 28%  
146 4% 26%  
147 4% 22%  
148 11% 18%  
149 1.1% 8%  
150 3% 7%  
151 0.7% 4%  
152 1.5% 3%  
153 0.4% 2%  
154 1.0% 2%  
155 0.3% 0.6%  
156 0.2% 0.3%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.4% 99.8%  
121 0.4% 99.4%  
122 0.5% 99.0%  
123 0.3% 98.5%  
124 3% 98%  
125 5% 95%  
126 2% 90%  
127 1.0% 88%  
128 5% 87%  
129 10% 82%  
130 10% 72%  
131 8% 62%  
132 3% 54%  
133 5% 52% Median
134 4% 46%  
135 9% 43%  
136 12% 34%  
137 5% 21%  
138 3% 17%  
139 3% 14%  
140 5% 11%  
141 2% 6%  
142 0.8% 4%  
143 3% 3%  
144 0.4% 0.9%  
145 0.1% 0.5%  
146 0.2% 0.4%  
147 0% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.5% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.2%  
110 0.9% 99.0%  
111 2% 98%  
112 0.4% 96%  
113 0.7% 96%  
114 3% 95%  
115 12% 92%  
116 9% 80% Majority
117 5% 71%  
118 9% 66%  
119 6% 57%  
120 3% 52% Median
121 9% 49%  
122 5% 40%  
123 3% 35%  
124 1.0% 32%  
125 4% 31%  
126 2% 27%  
127 11% 25%  
128 4% 14%  
129 2% 10%  
130 3% 8%  
131 2% 5%  
132 1.2% 3%  
133 0.4% 1.5%  
134 0.3% 1.0%  
135 0.2% 0.7%  
136 0.2% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.3%  
63 1.2% 98.8%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 5% 92%  
67 12% 87%  
68 4% 75%  
69 3% 71%  
70 2% 68%  
71 11% 65%  
72 6% 54%  
73 5% 48% Median
74 14% 43%  
75 11% 29%  
76 7% 19%  
77 5% 11%  
78 2% 7%  
79 1.0% 5%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations