Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 9–12 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 39.2% 36.7–41.8% 36.0–42.5% 35.4–43.1% 34.2–44.4%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 23.3% 21.2–25.6% 20.6–26.3% 20.1–26.8% 19.1–28.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 10.1% 8.7–11.8% 8.3–12.3% 7.9–12.8% 7.3–13.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.8% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.8% 5.9–10.2% 5.3–11.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 5.6% 4.6–7.0% 4.3–7.4% 4.1–7.8% 3.6–8.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.5%
Aliança 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
LIVRE 0.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 115 107–122 105–125 104–126 100–129
Partido Social Democrata 89 65 58–73 57–74 55–76 53–78
Bloco de Esquerda 19 22 18–25 17–27 16–28 13–30
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 14 12–20 11–20 10–21 8–23
CDS–Partido Popular 18 8 6–12 6–13 6–15 4–18
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 4 2–6 2–6 2–6 1–8
Aliança 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
LIVRE 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 0.4% 99.2%  
102 0.7% 98.8%  
103 0.6% 98%  
104 2% 98%  
105 2% 96%  
106 2% 94%  
107 4% 92%  
108 2% 88%  
109 3% 86%  
110 4% 82%  
111 3% 78%  
112 8% 75%  
113 5% 67%  
114 8% 61%  
115 12% 53% Median
116 5% 41% Majority
117 9% 36%  
118 7% 27%  
119 4% 20%  
120 3% 16%  
121 2% 13%  
122 3% 11%  
123 2% 8%  
124 1.2% 6%  
125 1.3% 5%  
126 2% 4%  
127 0.7% 2%  
128 0.5% 1.4%  
129 0.4% 0.9%  
130 0.3% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 1.0% 99.5%  
55 1.1% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 2% 96%  
58 5% 94%  
59 9% 89%  
60 7% 81%  
61 3% 74%  
62 3% 70%  
63 6% 67%  
64 7% 61%  
65 12% 54% Median
66 8% 42%  
67 5% 34%  
68 2% 29%  
69 3% 27%  
70 8% 24%  
71 3% 16%  
72 1.3% 14%  
73 6% 12%  
74 2% 6%  
75 1.2% 5%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.0%  
79 0.1% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 0.4% 99.8%  
14 0.3% 99.5%  
15 0.6% 99.2%  
16 1.1% 98.6%  
17 7% 97%  
18 14% 91%  
19 8% 77% Last Result
20 5% 69%  
21 12% 64%  
22 9% 52% Median
23 15% 44%  
24 18% 29%  
25 3% 11%  
26 2% 8%  
27 2% 7%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.5% 1.1%  
30 0.2% 0.6%  
31 0.2% 0.4%  
32 0% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.2% 99.8%  
8 0.6% 99.7%  
9 1.1% 99.1%  
10 0.8% 98%  
11 5% 97%  
12 5% 92%  
13 14% 87%  
14 23% 73% Median
15 5% 50%  
16 5% 44%  
17 14% 40% Last Result
18 5% 25%  
19 5% 20%  
20 11% 16%  
21 2% 4%  
22 1.0% 2%  
23 0.7% 1.1%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 1.4% 99.8%  
5 0.3% 98%  
6 14% 98%  
7 33% 85%  
8 7% 52% Median
9 5% 44%  
10 19% 39%  
11 7% 20%  
12 3% 13%  
13 5% 10%  
14 0.9% 5%  
15 1.3% 4%  
16 0.6% 2%  
17 0.4% 2%  
18 1.2% 1.5% Last Result
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100% Last Result
2 13% 98.9%  
3 32% 86%  
4 25% 54% Median
5 6% 29%  
6 22% 23%  
7 0.4% 1.1%  
8 0.4% 0.7%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 21%  
2 18% 18%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 34%  
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 151 100% 144–159 142–161 141–162 137–165
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 136 100% 128–143 127–145 125–147 120–150
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 130 99.6% 122–138 121–140 119–142 116–145
Partido Socialista 86 115 41% 107–122 105–125 104–126 100–129
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 74 0% 66–81 65–83 64–84 61–88

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.2% 99.8%  
137 0.2% 99.6%  
138 0.2% 99.4%  
139 0.4% 99.2%  
140 0.6% 98.8%  
141 2% 98%  
142 2% 97%  
143 3% 95%  
144 4% 91%  
145 3% 88%  
146 2% 85%  
147 3% 83%  
148 7% 80%  
149 11% 73%  
150 9% 62%  
151 4% 53% Median
152 3% 49%  
153 5% 46%  
154 9% 41%  
155 9% 32%  
156 6% 23%  
157 2% 17%  
158 2% 15%  
159 3% 12%  
160 3% 9%  
161 3% 6%  
162 1.1% 3%  
163 0.6% 2%  
164 0.8% 1.5%  
165 0.4% 0.7%  
166 0.2% 0.3%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.1% 99.5%  
122 0.3% 99.4%  
123 0.4% 99.1%  
124 0.9% 98.7%  
125 0.9% 98%  
126 1.1% 97%  
127 2% 96%  
128 4% 94%  
129 3% 90%  
130 4% 87%  
131 3% 83%  
132 6% 81%  
133 6% 75%  
134 7% 69%  
135 9% 62%  
136 6% 53%  
137 7% 47% Median
138 5% 40%  
139 7% 35%  
140 7% 29%  
141 6% 22%  
142 4% 16%  
143 2% 11%  
144 3% 9%  
145 2% 7%  
146 2% 5%  
147 1.2% 3%  
148 0.8% 2%  
149 0.7% 1.5%  
150 0.3% 0.8%  
151 0.3% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.4% 99.6% Majority
117 0.5% 99.2%  
118 1.1% 98.7%  
119 0.9% 98%  
120 1.5% 97%  
121 2% 95%  
122 4% 93%  
123 2% 89%  
124 3% 87%  
125 4% 84%  
126 8% 80%  
127 6% 72%  
128 7% 66%  
129 6% 60% Median
130 5% 53%  
131 11% 48%  
132 6% 37%  
133 5% 32%  
134 4% 27%  
135 4% 22%  
136 3% 19%  
137 6% 16%  
138 3% 11%  
139 2% 8%  
140 2% 6%  
141 1.0% 3%  
142 1.0% 3%  
143 0.6% 2%  
144 0.5% 1.0%  
145 0.3% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.4% 99.7%  
101 0.4% 99.2%  
102 0.7% 98.8%  
103 0.6% 98%  
104 2% 98%  
105 2% 96%  
106 2% 94%  
107 4% 92%  
108 2% 88%  
109 3% 86%  
110 4% 82%  
111 3% 78%  
112 8% 75%  
113 5% 67%  
114 8% 61%  
115 12% 53% Median
116 5% 41% Majority
117 9% 36%  
118 7% 27%  
119 4% 20%  
120 3% 16%  
121 2% 13%  
122 3% 11%  
123 2% 8%  
124 1.2% 6%  
125 1.3% 5%  
126 2% 4%  
127 0.7% 2%  
128 0.5% 1.4%  
129 0.4% 0.9%  
130 0.3% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.7%  
62 0.6% 99.1%  
63 0.9% 98.5%  
64 1.5% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 4% 92%  
67 3% 89%  
68 4% 86%  
69 3% 82%  
70 7% 79%  
71 7% 72%  
72 8% 65%  
73 5% 57% Median
74 8% 52%  
75 7% 45%  
76 7% 38%  
77 9% 31%  
78 4% 22%  
79 2% 18%  
80 4% 16%  
81 2% 11%  
82 2% 9%  
83 4% 7%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.8% 2%  
86 0.5% 1.4%  
87 0.4% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations