Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 17–20 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 40.7% 38.1–43.3% 37.4–44.0% 36.8–44.7% 35.6–45.9%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 26.7% 24.4–29.1% 23.8–29.8% 23.3–30.4% 22.3–31.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.8% 7.5–10.5% 7.1–11.0% 6.8–11.4% 6.2–12.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.8% 5.7–8.3% 5.3–8.8% 5.1–9.1% 4.6–9.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 5.2% 4.2–6.5% 3.9–6.9% 3.7–7.3% 3.2–8.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.6–5.2% 2.4–5.5% 2.1–6.1%
Aliança 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.8%
Chega 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.8%
LIVRE 0.7% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 114 106–120 106–122 104–125 100–130
Partido Social Democrata 89 73 67–80 64–81 63–82 59–86
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 13–22 13–24 10–24 10–25
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 14 6–17 6–19 6–20 5–21
CDS–Partido Popular 18 7 6–10 4–11 4–12 2–16
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 4 3–6 3–7 2–8 2–9
Aliança 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Chega 0 0 0 0 0 0
LIVRE 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.6%  
101 0.3% 99.5%  
102 0.5% 99.2%  
103 0.5% 98.7%  
104 1.1% 98%  
105 2% 97%  
106 5% 95%  
107 2% 90%  
108 3% 88%  
109 4% 85%  
110 1.0% 81%  
111 11% 80%  
112 2% 69%  
113 10% 67%  
114 12% 57% Median
115 4% 45%  
116 3% 41% Majority
117 4% 38%  
118 9% 34%  
119 13% 25%  
120 4% 12%  
121 1.1% 8%  
122 2% 7%  
123 0.9% 5%  
124 0.4% 4%  
125 1.1% 4%  
126 0.7% 2%  
127 0.2% 2%  
128 0.3% 1.5%  
129 0.5% 1.1%  
130 0.3% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 0.5% 99.2%  
61 0.6% 98.7%  
62 0.3% 98%  
63 2% 98%  
64 1.2% 96%  
65 0.8% 95%  
66 3% 94%  
67 6% 91%  
68 2% 85%  
69 18% 83%  
70 2% 65%  
71 3% 63%  
72 5% 59%  
73 5% 54% Median
74 6% 49%  
75 3% 43%  
76 7% 40%  
77 9% 34%  
78 4% 24%  
79 4% 20%  
80 9% 15%  
81 2% 6%  
82 1.0% 3%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.5% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.4%  
86 0.5% 0.9%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.2% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 4% 99.9%  
11 0.5% 96%  
12 0.6% 96%  
13 8% 95%  
14 5% 87%  
15 6% 82%  
16 3% 76%  
17 8% 73%  
18 43% 65% Median
19 4% 22% Last Result
20 4% 18%  
21 4% 14%  
22 2% 10%  
23 4% 9%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.3% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.5%  
27 0% 0.3%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 10% 98.9%  
7 0.9% 89%  
8 4% 88%  
9 9% 84%  
10 8% 75%  
11 5% 68%  
12 3% 63%  
13 7% 60%  
14 19% 53% Median
15 2% 34%  
16 5% 32%  
17 20% 27% Last Result
18 1.2% 7%  
19 2% 6%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.6% 0.8%  
22 0% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 1.0% 99.3%  
4 5% 98%  
5 3% 93%  
6 39% 91%  
7 30% 52% Median
8 3% 22%  
9 6% 19%  
10 7% 13%  
11 2% 6%  
12 2% 4%  
13 0.3% 2%  
14 0.5% 2%  
15 0.2% 1.0%  
16 0.5% 0.8%  
17 0.1% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 4% 99.9%  
3 11% 95%  
4 37% 85% Median
5 11% 48%  
6 31% 37%  
7 3% 6%  
8 2% 3%  
9 1.1% 1.3%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 13%  
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.7%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 1.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 145 100% 138–151 137–154 135–156 130–159
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 131 99.9% 125–138 124–142 122–143 118–146
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 127 98.6% 120–133 119–135 116–139 112–141
Partido Socialista 86 114 41% 106–120 106–122 104–125 100–130
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 80 0% 74–87 72–87 69–91 65–94

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.2% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.2% 99.7%  
130 0.3% 99.5%  
131 0.1% 99.2%  
132 0.1% 99.1%  
133 0.3% 99.0%  
134 1.1% 98.7%  
135 0.5% 98%  
136 0.8% 97%  
137 6% 96%  
138 6% 90%  
139 7% 84%  
140 2% 77%  
141 8% 75%  
142 3% 67%  
143 8% 64%  
144 4% 56%  
145 6% 51%  
146 3% 45% Median
147 6% 42%  
148 5% 37%  
149 10% 31%  
150 2% 22%  
151 12% 20%  
152 1.0% 7%  
153 1.3% 6%  
154 1.3% 5%  
155 0.8% 4%  
156 1.4% 3%  
157 0.2% 2%  
158 0.5% 1.3%  
159 0.4% 0.8%  
160 0.1% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0.1% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.6%  
119 0.4% 99.5%  
120 0.5% 99.0%  
121 0.5% 98.5%  
122 0.8% 98%  
123 0.6% 97%  
124 6% 97%  
125 2% 91%  
126 4% 89%  
127 4% 85%  
128 7% 81%  
129 10% 74%  
130 4% 64%  
131 11% 59%  
132 9% 48% Median
133 3% 39%  
134 5% 36%  
135 2% 31%  
136 3% 29%  
137 15% 26%  
138 2% 11%  
139 3% 9%  
140 0.9% 6%  
141 0.3% 5%  
142 0.9% 5%  
143 2% 4%  
144 0.8% 2%  
145 0.6% 2%  
146 0.5% 1.0%  
147 0.1% 0.5%  
148 0.2% 0.4%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.4% 99.6%  
113 0.1% 99.2%  
114 0.4% 99.1%  
115 0.2% 98.8%  
116 2% 98.6% Majority
117 0.9% 97%  
118 0.7% 96%  
119 0.5% 95%  
120 6% 95%  
121 5% 89%  
122 2% 84%  
123 7% 82%  
124 8% 74%  
125 7% 67%  
126 6% 60%  
127 4% 54%  
128 6% 50% Median
129 6% 43%  
130 6% 37%  
131 9% 32%  
132 2% 23%  
133 12% 21%  
134 3% 9%  
135 1.4% 6%  
136 0.6% 5%  
137 0.8% 4%  
138 0.4% 3%  
139 2% 3%  
140 0.3% 1.3%  
141 0.5% 1.0%  
142 0.1% 0.5%  
143 0.2% 0.4%  
144 0% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.6%  
101 0.3% 99.5%  
102 0.5% 99.2%  
103 0.5% 98.7%  
104 1.1% 98%  
105 2% 97%  
106 5% 95%  
107 2% 90%  
108 3% 88%  
109 4% 85%  
110 1.0% 81%  
111 11% 80%  
112 2% 69%  
113 10% 67%  
114 12% 57% Median
115 4% 45%  
116 3% 41% Majority
117 4% 38%  
118 9% 34%  
119 13% 25%  
120 4% 12%  
121 1.1% 8%  
122 2% 7%  
123 0.9% 5%  
124 0.4% 4%  
125 1.1% 4%  
126 0.7% 2%  
127 0.2% 2%  
128 0.3% 1.5%  
129 0.5% 1.1%  
130 0.3% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.4%  
67 0.1% 99.1%  
68 1.4% 99.0%  
69 0.9% 98%  
70 1.1% 97%  
71 0.3% 96%  
72 0.8% 95%  
73 4% 94%  
74 2% 90%  
75 11% 88%  
76 8% 77%  
77 6% 69%  
78 2% 63%  
79 7% 62%  
80 5% 54% Median
81 5% 50%  
82 6% 45%  
83 10% 38%  
84 3% 29%  
85 7% 26%  
86 6% 19%  
87 9% 13%  
88 0.7% 5%  
89 0.6% 4%  
90 0.4% 3%  
91 0.5% 3%  
92 0.5% 2%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations