Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 18–21 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 38.7% 36.2–41.3% 35.5–42.0% 34.8–42.6% 33.7–43.9%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 26.8% 24.6–29.2% 24.0–29.9% 23.4–30.5% 22.4–31.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.7% 8.3–11.4% 7.9–11.9% 7.5–12.3% 6.9–13.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.8% 5.7–8.3% 5.3–8.8% 5.1–9.1% 4.6–9.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 5.5% 4.5–6.9% 4.2–7.3% 3.9–7.6% 3.5–8.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.2% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.5%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.5–2.2% 0.3–2.6%
Aliança 0.0% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.5–2.2% 0.3–2.6%
Chega 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.8%
LIVRE 0.7% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 109 102–116 100–119 97–123 95–126
Partido Social Democrata 89 75 67–81 65–83 63–83 61–89
Bloco de Esquerda 19 19 17–24 16–24 14–24 13–28
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 14 8–17 8–18 7–19 5–20
CDS–Partido Popular 18 7 6–11 6–12 6–14 4–17
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 4 3–6 2–6 2–7 1–8
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2
Aliança 0 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2
Chega 0 0 0 0 0 0
LIVRE 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.2% 99.5%  
97 3% 99.3%  
98 0.1% 96%  
99 0.4% 96%  
100 3% 96%  
101 1.2% 93%  
102 11% 92%  
103 2% 81%  
104 1.4% 79%  
105 5% 78%  
106 2% 73%  
107 16% 71%  
108 3% 54%  
109 3% 52% Median
110 8% 48%  
111 7% 41%  
112 8% 33%  
113 7% 26%  
114 2% 18%  
115 4% 16%  
116 3% 12% Majority
117 2% 9%  
118 2% 8%  
119 2% 5%  
120 0.2% 4%  
121 0.2% 3%  
122 0.1% 3%  
123 0.6% 3%  
124 0.1% 2%  
125 0.1% 2%  
126 2% 2%  
127 0% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.3% 99.5%  
62 0.3% 99.3%  
63 2% 98.9%  
64 0.3% 97%  
65 4% 96%  
66 0.5% 93%  
67 3% 92%  
68 2% 90%  
69 3% 88%  
70 1.2% 85%  
71 0.8% 83%  
72 5% 83%  
73 19% 78%  
74 4% 59%  
75 6% 56% Median
76 10% 50%  
77 4% 40%  
78 12% 36%  
79 7% 23%  
80 6% 17%  
81 4% 11%  
82 1.3% 7%  
83 3% 5%  
84 0.4% 2%  
85 0.4% 2%  
86 0.3% 1.3%  
87 0.3% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
90 0% 0.4%  
91 0% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.3%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.2% 99.8%  
13 0.8% 99.6%  
14 1.4% 98.8%  
15 1.0% 97%  
16 4% 96%  
17 6% 92%  
18 21% 86%  
19 19% 65% Last Result, Median
20 4% 46%  
21 7% 42%  
22 3% 35%  
23 7% 32%  
24 23% 25%  
25 0.3% 2%  
26 0.6% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.9%  
28 0.3% 0.6%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 1.2% 99.3%  
7 1.0% 98%  
8 8% 97%  
9 9% 89%  
10 3% 80%  
11 4% 77%  
12 4% 73%  
13 16% 69%  
14 19% 53% Median
15 4% 34%  
16 1.1% 30%  
17 23% 29% Last Result
18 2% 6%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.8% 1.2%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.8%  
4 1.2% 99.6%  
5 0.5% 98%  
6 27% 98%  
7 27% 71% Median
8 11% 43%  
9 3% 33%  
10 19% 30%  
11 5% 11%  
12 2% 6%  
13 1.1% 4%  
14 0.8% 3%  
15 0.1% 2%  
16 1.0% 2%  
17 0.4% 0.8%  
18 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100% Last Result
2 5% 98.9%  
3 21% 94%  
4 44% 73% Median
5 3% 29%  
6 21% 26%  
7 4% 5%  
8 1.1% 1.4%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 6%  
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 6%  
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 143 100% 137–149 135–152 134–155 127–157
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 129 99.4% 123–136 121–141 120–144 115–146
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 124 80% 115–130 114–132 111–135 109–139
Partido Socialista 86 109 12% 102–116 100–119 97–123 95–126
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 83 0% 76–89 74–91 71–92 70–98

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.7%  
127 0.1% 99.6%  
128 0.3% 99.5%  
129 0.1% 99.2%  
130 0.2% 99.0%  
131 0.5% 98.8%  
132 0.2% 98%  
133 0.6% 98%  
134 1.1% 98%  
135 2% 96%  
136 4% 94%  
137 3% 90%  
138 4% 87%  
139 12% 83%  
140 9% 71%  
141 4% 62%  
142 3% 58% Median
143 15% 55%  
144 13% 40%  
145 4% 27%  
146 4% 23%  
147 6% 19%  
148 2% 13%  
149 2% 11%  
150 0.8% 9%  
151 2% 8%  
152 2% 6%  
153 0.6% 5%  
154 0.3% 4%  
155 2% 4%  
156 0.1% 2%  
157 1.5% 2%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.3% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.4% Majority
117 0.1% 99.2%  
118 0.3% 99.1%  
119 0.1% 98.8%  
120 4% 98.7%  
121 0.5% 95%  
122 2% 95%  
123 4% 93%  
124 5% 89%  
125 1.1% 84%  
126 20% 83%  
127 2% 63%  
128 7% 61% Median
129 12% 54%  
130 11% 41%  
131 5% 31%  
132 3% 25%  
133 6% 22%  
134 2% 16%  
135 2% 14%  
136 4% 12%  
137 1.1% 8%  
138 1.0% 7%  
139 0.6% 6%  
140 0.4% 6%  
141 0.6% 5%  
142 1.0% 5%  
143 0.8% 4%  
144 2% 3%  
145 0.2% 0.8%  
146 0.4% 0.6%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.8% Last Result
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.1% 99.7%  
108 0.1% 99.6%  
109 0.6% 99.5%  
110 0.5% 98.9%  
111 2% 98%  
112 0.2% 96%  
113 0.8% 96%  
114 4% 95%  
115 12% 91%  
116 5% 80% Majority
117 4% 75%  
118 0.4% 71%  
119 4% 70%  
120 2% 66%  
121 2% 64%  
122 7% 62%  
123 2% 55% Median
124 15% 53%  
125 4% 38%  
126 12% 34%  
127 6% 22%  
128 3% 17%  
129 2% 14%  
130 5% 12%  
131 1.2% 7%  
132 1.4% 5%  
133 0.3% 4%  
134 1.0% 4%  
135 0.6% 3%  
136 0.2% 2%  
137 0.3% 2%  
138 0.1% 2%  
139 1.4% 2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.2% 99.5%  
97 3% 99.3%  
98 0.1% 96%  
99 0.4% 96%  
100 3% 96%  
101 1.2% 93%  
102 11% 92%  
103 2% 81%  
104 1.4% 79%  
105 5% 78%  
106 2% 73%  
107 16% 71%  
108 3% 54%  
109 3% 52% Median
110 8% 48%  
111 7% 41%  
112 8% 33%  
113 7% 26%  
114 2% 18%  
115 4% 16%  
116 3% 12% Majority
117 2% 9%  
118 2% 8%  
119 2% 5%  
120 0.2% 4%  
121 0.2% 3%  
122 0.1% 3%  
123 0.6% 3%  
124 0.1% 2%  
125 0.1% 2%  
126 2% 2%  
127 0% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.7%  
69 0.1% 99.6%  
70 2% 99.5%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 1.2% 97%  
73 0.4% 96%  
74 1.2% 95%  
75 3% 94%  
76 2% 91%  
77 3% 89%  
78 0.5% 86%  
79 2% 86%  
80 13% 84%  
81 4% 71%  
82 10% 67% Median
83 13% 57%  
84 4% 44%  
85 15% 40%  
86 9% 26%  
87 1.3% 17%  
88 2% 15%  
89 5% 13%  
90 1.3% 8%  
91 4% 7%  
92 0.5% 3%  
93 0.5% 2%  
94 0.5% 2%  
95 0.3% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.2%  
97 0.1% 0.9%  
98 0.3% 0.8%  
99 0.1% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations