Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 19–22 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.7% 35.2–40.3% 34.5–41.0% 33.9–41.6% 32.7–42.9%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 27.7% 25.4–30.1% 24.8–30.8% 24.2–31.4% 23.2–32.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 10.3% 8.9–12.1% 8.5–12.6% 8.1–13.0% 7.5–13.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.7% 6.4–9.2% 6.1–9.7% 5.8–10.1% 5.3–10.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 4.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.3% 3.2–6.7% 2.9–7.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.3–4.8% 2.2–5.1% 1.8–5.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%
Aliança 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%
LIVRE 0.7% 0.5% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.8%
Chega 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 107 101–115 99–117 96–118 91–120
Partido Social Democrata 89 75 71–82 67–84 66–87 63–93
Bloco de Esquerda 19 22 18–24 17–26 17–27 15–29
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 17 11–18 9–20 8–20 6–22
CDS–Partido Popular 18 5 4–9 4–10 2–10 2–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 5 3–6 2–6 2–6 1–9
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
LIVRE 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Chega 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.1% 99.6%  
91 0.6% 99.6%  
92 0.2% 99.0%  
93 0.1% 98.7%  
94 0.3% 98.6%  
95 0.8% 98%  
96 0.3% 98%  
97 0.4% 97%  
98 0.8% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 0.6% 94%  
101 4% 93%  
102 4% 90%  
103 5% 85%  
104 2% 81%  
105 13% 79%  
106 11% 66%  
107 27% 55% Median
108 7% 28%  
109 2% 22%  
110 0.8% 19%  
111 0.9% 18%  
112 2% 18%  
113 2% 16%  
114 2% 14%  
115 3% 11%  
116 0.6% 8% Majority
117 4% 7%  
118 1.3% 3%  
119 1.3% 2%  
120 0.3% 0.6%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.6%  
63 0.2% 99.6%  
64 0.6% 99.4%  
65 0.6% 98.7%  
66 3% 98%  
67 1.5% 95%  
68 0.8% 94%  
69 2% 93%  
70 1.1% 92%  
71 0.7% 90%  
72 1.3% 90%  
73 3% 88%  
74 7% 86%  
75 31% 79% Median
76 7% 48%  
77 4% 40%  
78 4% 37%  
79 9% 33%  
80 4% 24%  
81 1.2% 21%  
82 11% 19%  
83 2% 8%  
84 1.5% 6%  
85 0.5% 4%  
86 0.8% 4%  
87 0.3% 3%  
88 0.2% 2%  
89 0.3% 2% Last Result
90 0.1% 2%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.3%  
93 0.1% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 0.1% 99.7%  
15 0.5% 99.6%  
16 1.2% 99.1%  
17 4% 98%  
18 24% 94%  
19 6% 70% Last Result
20 2% 64%  
21 6% 62%  
22 27% 56% Median
23 5% 29%  
24 18% 24%  
25 0.6% 7%  
26 3% 6%  
27 1.4% 3%  
28 1.0% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.3%  
32 0% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 0.1% 99.4%  
8 4% 99.2%  
9 3% 95%  
10 1.1% 92%  
11 2% 91%  
12 6% 90%  
13 9% 83%  
14 15% 74%  
15 3% 59%  
16 3% 56%  
17 41% 52% Last Result, Median
18 5% 12%  
19 1.0% 7%  
20 4% 6%  
21 0.8% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.5%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 0.5% 97%  
4 46% 96%  
5 4% 51% Median
6 26% 47%  
7 9% 21%  
8 2% 12%  
9 1.4% 10%  
10 7% 9%  
11 0.7% 2%  
12 0.5% 1.3%  
13 0.5% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.3%  
15 0% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100% Last Result
2 7% 99.2%  
3 20% 92%  
4 18% 72%  
5 28% 54% Median
6 24% 26%  
7 0.3% 1.4%  
8 0.6% 1.1%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 2%  
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.5%  
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 145 100% 138–148 134–151 132–153 127–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 129 98% 121–135 119–137 116–139 113–143
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 122 91% 116–129 113–132 110–133 105–135
Partido Socialista 86 107 8% 101–115 99–117 96–118 91–120
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 81 0% 78–88 75–91 73–94 69–98

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0.2% 99.8%  
127 0.1% 99.5%  
128 0.1% 99.4%  
129 0.8% 99.2%  
130 0.4% 98%  
131 0.1% 98%  
132 1.4% 98%  
133 0.7% 96%  
134 1.4% 96%  
135 2% 94%  
136 0.6% 92%  
137 0.6% 91%  
138 15% 91%  
139 0.8% 76%  
140 7% 75%  
141 3% 68%  
142 3% 65%  
143 5% 62%  
144 2% 57%  
145 7% 55%  
146 31% 48% Median
147 6% 17%  
148 0.7% 11%  
149 1.3% 10%  
150 2% 9%  
151 3% 7%  
152 0.7% 5%  
153 2% 4%  
154 0.5% 2%  
155 0.2% 2%  
156 1.1% 2%  
157 0.2% 0.5%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.1% 99.5%  
114 0.5% 99.4%  
115 0.5% 98.9%  
116 1.3% 98% Majority
117 0.5% 97%  
118 0.7% 97%  
119 1.2% 96%  
120 3% 95%  
121 3% 91%  
122 2% 88%  
123 1.1% 86%  
124 11% 85%  
125 2% 74%  
126 6% 72%  
127 2% 66%  
128 2% 63%  
129 33% 61% Median
130 3% 28%  
131 2% 25%  
132 6% 23%  
133 4% 17%  
134 1.1% 13%  
135 6% 12%  
136 0.7% 6%  
137 1.4% 5%  
138 0.3% 4%  
139 2% 4%  
140 0.3% 2%  
141 0.2% 1.4%  
142 0.5% 1.2%  
143 0.5% 0.7%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.6%  
106 0% 99.5%  
107 0.3% 99.5%  
108 0.7% 99.1%  
109 0.3% 98%  
110 1.0% 98%  
111 0.7% 97%  
112 1.4% 96%  
113 0.9% 95%  
114 2% 94%  
115 0.8% 92%  
116 4% 91% Majority
117 3% 87%  
118 2% 84%  
119 3% 82%  
120 13% 79%  
121 7% 66%  
122 11% 59%  
123 2% 48%  
124 26% 46% Median
125 1.4% 20%  
126 2% 18%  
127 3% 16%  
128 2% 13%  
129 5% 11%  
130 0.2% 6%  
131 0.6% 6%  
132 2% 6%  
133 2% 3%  
134 0.3% 1.1%  
135 0.3% 0.7%  
136 0.2% 0.5%  
137 0% 0.3%  
138 0% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.1% 99.6%  
91 0.6% 99.6%  
92 0.2% 99.0%  
93 0.1% 98.7%  
94 0.3% 98.6%  
95 0.8% 98%  
96 0.3% 98%  
97 0.4% 97%  
98 0.8% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 0.6% 94%  
101 4% 93%  
102 4% 90%  
103 5% 85%  
104 2% 81%  
105 13% 79%  
106 11% 66%  
107 27% 55% Median
108 7% 28%  
109 2% 22%  
110 0.8% 19%  
111 0.9% 18%  
112 2% 18%  
113 2% 16%  
114 2% 14%  
115 3% 11%  
116 0.6% 8% Majority
117 4% 7%  
118 1.3% 3%  
119 1.3% 2%  
120 0.3% 0.6%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 0.5% 99.3%  
71 0.8% 98.8%  
72 0.4% 98%  
73 2% 98%  
74 0.3% 96%  
75 2% 96%  
76 3% 94%  
77 0.8% 91%  
78 2% 90%  
79 28% 88%  
80 7% 60% Median
81 7% 54%  
82 4% 47%  
83 8% 43%  
84 4% 35%  
85 6% 31%  
86 13% 25%  
87 1.0% 12%  
88 0.9% 11%  
89 2% 10%  
90 2% 7%  
91 0.4% 5%  
92 0.9% 5%  
93 0.8% 4%  
94 0.8% 3%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.2% 2%  
97 0.9% 1.5%  
98 0.1% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.2% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations