Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 20–23 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 36.0% 33.5–38.6% 32.8–39.3% 32.3–39.9% 31.1–41.2%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 28.5% 26.2–31.0% 25.6–31.6% 25.0–32.3% 24.0–33.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 10.5% 9.0–12.3% 8.6–12.8% 8.3–13.2% 7.6–14.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.8% 5.7–8.3% 5.3–8.8% 5.1–9.1% 4.6–9.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 4.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–6.0% 3.0–6.3% 2.6–6.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.6–5.2% 2.4–5.5% 2.1–6.1%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
LIVRE 0.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%
Aliança 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.8%
Chega 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 104 95–111 91–113 89–115 85–118
Partido Social Democrata 89 81 74–91 72–93 69–95 66–100
Bloco de Esquerda 19 23 18–26 18–27 17–27 14–32
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 13 8–17 7–18 6–20 5–21
CDS–Partido Popular 18 6 3–10 2–10 2–11 2–11
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 4 3–6 3–6 2–7 2–9
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
LIVRE 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chega 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.8%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.7%  
86 0.7% 99.4% Last Result
87 0.7% 98.8%  
88 0.4% 98%  
89 0.8% 98%  
90 0.4% 97%  
91 3% 96%  
92 0.7% 94%  
93 1.1% 93%  
94 2% 92%  
95 5% 90%  
96 6% 86%  
97 2% 79%  
98 1.0% 77%  
99 8% 76%  
100 4% 69%  
101 3% 65%  
102 7% 61%  
103 2% 55%  
104 7% 53% Median
105 5% 45%  
106 4% 40%  
107 15% 36%  
108 2% 21%  
109 2% 19%  
110 4% 16%  
111 2% 12%  
112 3% 10%  
113 2% 6%  
114 2% 5%  
115 2% 3%  
116 0.7% 1.4% Majority
117 0.2% 0.8%  
118 0.4% 0.6%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.7%  
66 0.2% 99.6%  
67 0.3% 99.4%  
68 1.3% 99.0%  
69 0.7% 98%  
70 0.5% 97%  
71 1.3% 97%  
72 1.3% 95%  
73 2% 94%  
74 3% 92%  
75 4% 89%  
76 10% 85%  
77 3% 75%  
78 8% 72%  
79 6% 64%  
80 6% 57%  
81 8% 52% Median
82 4% 43%  
83 7% 39%  
84 3% 32%  
85 5% 29%  
86 9% 24%  
87 0.8% 15%  
88 0.4% 14%  
89 1.4% 14% Last Result
90 0.4% 12%  
91 4% 12%  
92 2% 8%  
93 1.3% 5%  
94 2% 4%  
95 1.1% 3%  
96 0.5% 1.4%  
97 0.3% 0.9%  
98 0.1% 0.6%  
99 0% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.5%  
101 0.3% 0.4%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 0.8% 99.6%  
15 0.3% 98.7%  
16 0.3% 98%  
17 2% 98%  
18 12% 96%  
19 6% 84% Last Result
20 10% 78%  
21 9% 68%  
22 8% 59%  
23 11% 51% Median
24 23% 41%  
25 2% 18%  
26 6% 15%  
27 7% 9%  
28 0.9% 2%  
29 0.6% 2%  
30 0.1% 1.0%  
31 0.1% 0.9%  
32 0.3% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.4%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 2% 99.4%  
7 3% 97%  
8 17% 94%  
9 6% 77%  
10 3% 71%  
11 6% 68%  
12 7% 62%  
13 17% 55% Median
14 10% 38%  
15 4% 28%  
16 2% 24%  
17 15% 22% Last Result
18 2% 7%  
19 0.9% 4%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.3% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 8% 100%  
3 4% 92%  
4 28% 87%  
5 1.0% 60%  
6 26% 59% Median
7 17% 33%  
8 2% 16%  
9 3% 14%  
10 7% 10%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 4% 99.9%  
3 18% 95%  
4 31% 77% Median
5 3% 46%  
6 39% 43%  
7 1.0% 3%  
8 1.1% 2%  
9 0.9% 1.2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 14%  
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 45% 47%  
2 1.2% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.3%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 138 100% 127–146 126–148 125–149 120–153
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 126 92% 116–133 113–136 110–138 107–141
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 116 51% 106–124 103–125 102–126 98–132
Partido Socialista 86 104 1.4% 95–111 91–113 89–115 85–118
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 87 0% 80–97 77–99 75–100 71–104

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.4% 99.9%  
121 0.3% 99.5%  
122 0.3% 99.1% Last Result
123 0.5% 98.8%  
124 0.6% 98%  
125 0.7% 98%  
126 2% 97%  
127 5% 95%  
128 1.1% 90%  
129 3% 88%  
130 2% 85%  
131 1.0% 84%  
132 0.8% 83%  
133 1.0% 82%  
134 8% 81%  
135 12% 73%  
136 4% 61%  
137 4% 57%  
138 3% 53%  
139 9% 50%  
140 6% 40% Median
141 4% 34%  
142 6% 30%  
143 5% 24%  
144 6% 19%  
145 2% 14%  
146 5% 11%  
147 1.1% 6%  
148 1.0% 5%  
149 2% 4%  
150 0.5% 2%  
151 0.2% 1.4%  
152 0.4% 1.2%  
153 0.4% 0.8%  
154 0.1% 0.5%  
155 0.2% 0.3%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0.3% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.6%  
108 0.1% 99.4%  
109 0.6% 99.3%  
110 1.2% 98.7%  
111 0.4% 97%  
112 1.2% 97%  
113 1.1% 96%  
114 0.7% 95%  
115 2% 94%  
116 4% 92% Majority
117 2% 88%  
118 3% 86%  
119 2% 83%  
120 7% 81%  
121 2% 75%  
122 7% 73%  
123 5% 67%  
124 4% 62%  
125 4% 58%  
126 7% 54%  
127 12% 47% Median
128 4% 35%  
129 9% 31%  
130 5% 22%  
131 2% 17%  
132 2% 16%  
133 4% 14%  
134 1.1% 10%  
135 2% 8%  
136 2% 7%  
137 0.5% 4%  
138 2% 4%  
139 0.9% 2%  
140 0.8% 1.4%  
141 0.2% 0.6%  
142 0.3% 0.4%  
143 0% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.4% 99.7%  
99 0.7% 99.3%  
100 0.3% 98.6%  
101 0.4% 98%  
102 0.7% 98%  
103 2% 97% Last Result
104 0.9% 95%  
105 2% 94%  
106 4% 92%  
107 2% 87%  
108 1.5% 85%  
109 0.7% 84%  
110 6% 83%  
111 3% 77%  
112 5% 73%  
113 3% 68%  
114 2% 66%  
115 13% 64%  
116 8% 51% Majority
117 4% 43% Median
118 5% 40%  
119 5% 35%  
120 8% 30%  
121 2% 22%  
122 6% 19%  
123 3% 14%  
124 3% 11%  
125 5% 8%  
126 0.6% 3%  
127 0.3% 2%  
128 0.4% 2%  
129 0.3% 2%  
130 0.1% 2%  
131 0.1% 1.4%  
132 1.0% 1.2%  
133 0.2% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.8%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.7%  
86 0.7% 99.4% Last Result
87 0.7% 98.8%  
88 0.4% 98%  
89 0.8% 98%  
90 0.4% 97%  
91 3% 96%  
92 0.7% 94%  
93 1.1% 93%  
94 2% 92%  
95 5% 90%  
96 6% 86%  
97 2% 79%  
98 1.0% 77%  
99 8% 76%  
100 4% 69%  
101 3% 65%  
102 7% 61%  
103 2% 55%  
104 7% 53% Median
105 5% 45%  
106 4% 40%  
107 15% 36%  
108 2% 21%  
109 2% 19%  
110 4% 16%  
111 2% 12%  
112 3% 10%  
113 2% 6%  
114 2% 5%  
115 2% 3%  
116 0.7% 1.4% Majority
117 0.2% 0.8%  
118 0.4% 0.6%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0% 99.8%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.6%  
72 0.2% 99.3%  
73 0.3% 99.1%  
74 1.3% 98.8%  
75 1.0% 98%  
76 0.8% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 1.3% 94%  
79 3% 93%  
80 8% 90%  
81 4% 83%  
82 4% 78%  
83 6% 74%  
84 5% 68%  
85 5% 63%  
86 6% 58%  
87 2% 52% Median
88 9% 49%  
89 10% 41%  
90 11% 31%  
91 2% 21%  
92 1.2% 19%  
93 2% 18%  
94 2% 16%  
95 1.0% 14%  
96 1.2% 13%  
97 4% 11%  
98 0.9% 8%  
99 4% 7%  
100 1.1% 3%  
101 0.7% 2%  
102 0.3% 1.3%  
103 0.3% 1.0%  
104 0.2% 0.7%  
105 0% 0.4%  
106 0% 0.4%  
107 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations