Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 21–24 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 36.3% 33.9–38.9% 33.2–39.6% 32.6–40.3% 31.4–41.5%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 27.0% 24.8–29.4% 24.1–30.1% 23.6–30.7% 22.6–31.9%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 10.7% 9.2–12.5% 8.8–13.0% 8.4–13.4% 7.8–14.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.8% 5.7–8.3% 5.3–8.8% 5.1–9.1% 4.6–9.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 4.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–6.0% 3.0–6.3% 2.6–6.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.0% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.7% 1.6–5.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.8% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.3% 0.8–3.8%
LIVRE 0.7% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
Chega 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%
Aliança 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 105 100–113 96–115 94–117 89–120
Partido Social Democrata 89 77 70–84 67–86 66–88 62–93
Bloco de Esquerda 19 22 18–27 18–28 18–30 17–34
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 15 9–17 8–18 7–19 6–21
CDS–Partido Popular 18 6 3–7 2–8 2–10 2–12
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 3 2–6 2–6 2–6 1–8
Iniciativa Liberal 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
LIVRE 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Chega 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.5%  
90 0.2% 99.4%  
91 0.3% 99.2%  
92 0.5% 98.9%  
93 0.6% 98%  
94 0.8% 98%  
95 1.0% 97%  
96 2% 96%  
97 0.8% 94%  
98 1.2% 93%  
99 0.8% 92%  
100 4% 91%  
101 9% 87%  
102 5% 78%  
103 11% 73%  
104 6% 62%  
105 13% 56% Median
106 4% 43%  
107 2% 39%  
108 7% 37%  
109 10% 30%  
110 3% 20%  
111 2% 17%  
112 3% 15%  
113 3% 11%  
114 2% 9%  
115 2% 7%  
116 2% 4% Majority
117 0.9% 3%  
118 1.1% 2%  
119 0.1% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.5%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.1% 99.5%  
64 0.2% 99.4%  
65 1.1% 99.2%  
66 3% 98%  
67 2% 95%  
68 2% 93%  
69 0.7% 91%  
70 0.7% 90%  
71 1.2% 89%  
72 5% 88%  
73 16% 83%  
74 6% 67%  
75 1.0% 62%  
76 3% 61%  
77 11% 58% Median
78 13% 46%  
79 5% 34%  
80 5% 29%  
81 3% 24%  
82 4% 22%  
83 2% 18%  
84 8% 16%  
85 0.7% 8%  
86 4% 7%  
87 0.5% 3%  
88 0.3% 3%  
89 0.9% 2% Last Result
90 0.1% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.4%  
92 0.3% 0.9%  
93 0.2% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.1% 99.8%  
17 1.2% 99.6%  
18 16% 98%  
19 8% 82% Last Result
20 4% 74%  
21 7% 70%  
22 23% 64% Median
23 6% 41%  
24 20% 35%  
25 2% 15%  
26 2% 13%  
27 5% 11%  
28 3% 6%  
29 0.5% 3%  
30 0.4% 3%  
31 0.1% 2%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.9%  
34 0.2% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.5%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 0.9% 99.5%  
7 2% 98.6%  
8 3% 97%  
9 6% 94%  
10 10% 88%  
11 6% 78%  
12 2% 72%  
13 11% 70%  
14 8% 59%  
15 15% 50% Median
16 2% 35%  
17 24% 33% Last Result
18 5% 9%  
19 2% 4%  
20 0.8% 2%  
21 0.7% 0.9%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100%  
3 6% 94%  
4 6% 88%  
5 2% 82%  
6 43% 80% Median
7 31% 37%  
8 2% 7%  
9 0.8% 5%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.5% 1.0%  
12 0.3% 0.5%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.4% 100% Last Result
2 14% 98.6%  
3 43% 84% Median
4 25% 42%  
5 4% 17%  
6 11% 13%  
7 0.2% 1.3%  
8 1.0% 1.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 9% 57% Median
2 47% 48%  
3 0.1% 0.6%  
4 0.4% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 64% 72% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0.1% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 1.4%  
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.2%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 142 100% 134–150 132–151 130–152 125–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 127 98% 119–136 119–138 117–141 112–143
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 120 76% 112–126 110–128 108–130 101–133
Partido Socialista 86 105 4% 100–113 96–115 94–117 89–120
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 84 0% 75–90 73–92 72–93 68–99

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9% Last Result
123 0.2% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.1% 99.6%  
126 0.4% 99.5%  
127 0.1% 99.1%  
128 0.2% 98.9%  
129 0.3% 98.7%  
130 2% 98%  
131 0.7% 97%  
132 1.0% 96%  
133 1.2% 95%  
134 5% 94%  
135 2% 88%  
136 5% 87%  
137 2% 81%  
138 8% 80%  
139 4% 72%  
140 7% 67%  
141 3% 61%  
142 16% 58% Median
143 4% 42%  
144 15% 38%  
145 4% 24%  
146 2% 20%  
147 3% 18%  
148 3% 15%  
149 1.2% 12%  
150 3% 10%  
151 4% 8%  
152 2% 4%  
153 0.1% 2%  
154 0.9% 2%  
155 0.3% 0.9%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.3% 99.7%  
113 0.8% 99.3%  
114 0.6% 98.6%  
115 0.2% 98%  
116 0.1% 98% Majority
117 0.7% 98%  
118 0.5% 97%  
119 7% 96%  
120 0.9% 90%  
121 1.2% 89%  
122 5% 88%  
123 3% 82%  
124 3% 79%  
125 8% 76%  
126 4% 68%  
127 20% 65% Median
128 8% 44%  
129 3% 36%  
130 7% 33%  
131 3% 26%  
132 4% 23%  
133 2% 19%  
134 3% 17%  
135 2% 14%  
136 4% 12%  
137 1.1% 8%  
138 2% 6%  
139 0.9% 5%  
140 1.1% 4%  
141 0.7% 3%  
142 2% 2%  
143 0.2% 0.5%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.3% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.6%  
102 0% 99.4%  
103 0.3% 99.4% Last Result
104 0.2% 99.1%  
105 0.6% 98.8%  
106 0.5% 98%  
107 0.2% 98%  
108 0.8% 98%  
109 0.8% 97%  
110 1.4% 96%  
111 3% 95%  
112 2% 92%  
113 3% 89%  
114 5% 86%  
115 5% 81%  
116 8% 76% Majority
117 4% 68%  
118 4% 64%  
119 3% 60%  
120 9% 57% Median
121 8% 48%  
122 14% 40%  
123 1.1% 25%  
124 10% 24%  
125 2% 14%  
126 4% 12%  
127 2% 9%  
128 3% 6%  
129 0.7% 4%  
130 0.9% 3%  
131 0.2% 2%  
132 1.2% 2%  
133 0.4% 0.7%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.5%  
90 0.2% 99.4%  
91 0.3% 99.2%  
92 0.5% 98.9%  
93 0.6% 98%  
94 0.8% 98%  
95 1.0% 97%  
96 2% 96%  
97 0.8% 94%  
98 1.2% 93%  
99 0.8% 92%  
100 4% 91%  
101 9% 87%  
102 5% 78%  
103 11% 73%  
104 6% 62%  
105 13% 56% Median
106 4% 43%  
107 2% 39%  
108 7% 37%  
109 10% 30%  
110 3% 20%  
111 2% 17%  
112 3% 15%  
113 3% 11%  
114 2% 9%  
115 2% 7%  
116 2% 4% Majority
117 0.9% 3%  
118 1.1% 2%  
119 0.1% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.5%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.2% 99.5%  
70 0.5% 99.3%  
71 0.4% 98.8%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 3% 94%  
75 1.2% 91%  
76 2% 90%  
77 3% 88%  
78 4% 85%  
79 4% 82%  
80 14% 77%  
81 4% 63%  
82 5% 59%  
83 3% 54% Median
84 18% 51%  
85 5% 33%  
86 4% 28%  
87 2% 24%  
88 2% 21%  
89 7% 20%  
90 6% 12%  
91 1.2% 6%  
92 2% 5%  
93 0.8% 3%  
94 0.4% 2%  
95 0.4% 2%  
96 0.1% 1.4%  
97 0.5% 1.3%  
98 0.3% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations