Opinion Poll by Aximage for Jornal Económico, 21–25 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.3% 34.9–39.9% 34.2–40.6% 33.5–41.3% 32.4–42.5%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 25.2% 23.0–27.5% 22.4–28.2% 21.9–28.8% 20.9–30.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 11.0% 9.5–12.8% 9.1–13.3% 8.7–13.8% 8.1–14.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.8% 5.7–8.3% 5.3–8.8% 5.1–9.1% 4.6–9.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 5.2% 4.2–6.5% 3.9–6.9% 3.7–7.3% 3.2–8.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.6–5.2% 2.4–5.5% 2.1–6.1%
LIVRE 0.7% 1.7% 1.2–2.6% 1.0–2.8% 0.9–3.0% 0.7–3.5%
Chega 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 110 102–116 100–117 97–119 93–124
Partido Social Democrata 89 71 63–77 61–79 60–81 57–85
Bloco de Esquerda 19 24 19–28 18–28 18–30 17–38
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 13 9–17 8–18 7–19 5–20
CDS–Partido Popular 18 7 6–10 5–11 4–12 2–16
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 5 3–6 3–6 2–8 2–9
LIVRE 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–3 0–5
Chega 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.2% 99.4%  
95 0.3% 99.1%  
96 0.9% 98.8%  
97 1.0% 98%  
98 0.4% 97%  
99 1.0% 97%  
100 2% 95%  
101 2% 94%  
102 5% 92%  
103 6% 87%  
104 4% 81%  
105 4% 77%  
106 3% 72%  
107 11% 70%  
108 4% 58%  
109 3% 54%  
110 9% 51% Median
111 5% 43%  
112 6% 37%  
113 5% 32%  
114 9% 27%  
115 7% 19%  
116 5% 11% Majority
117 2% 6%  
118 2% 4%  
119 0.5% 3%  
120 0.7% 2%  
121 0.2% 2%  
122 0.7% 1.5%  
123 0.2% 0.8%  
124 0.1% 0.6%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.6%  
58 0.2% 99.5%  
59 1.1% 99.2%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 96%  
62 1.2% 93%  
63 5% 92%  
64 2% 87%  
65 3% 85%  
66 4% 82%  
67 6% 78%  
68 10% 72%  
69 5% 63%  
70 4% 58%  
71 5% 54% Median
72 5% 49%  
73 10% 44%  
74 7% 34%  
75 4% 27%  
76 9% 23%  
77 5% 14%  
78 3% 10%  
79 3% 7%  
80 1.0% 4%  
81 1.1% 3%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.2% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.3%  
85 0.2% 0.7%  
86 0.1% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.2% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.1% 99.8%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 3% 98%  
19 5% 95% Last Result
20 6% 90%  
21 7% 84%  
22 12% 77%  
23 6% 64%  
24 27% 59% Median
25 4% 31%  
26 10% 27%  
27 6% 16%  
28 7% 11%  
29 1.2% 4%  
30 0.4% 3%  
31 0.1% 2%  
32 0.3% 2%  
33 0.4% 2%  
34 0.3% 1.3%  
35 0.3% 1.0%  
36 0.1% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.6%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 0.9% 99.5%  
7 2% 98.5%  
8 6% 97%  
9 13% 91%  
10 5% 78%  
11 8% 73%  
12 4% 65%  
13 20% 60% Median
14 18% 40%  
15 4% 22%  
16 2% 18%  
17 9% 15% Last Result
18 3% 6%  
19 2% 3%  
20 1.1% 1.5%  
21 0.2% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 0.8% 99.5%  
4 3% 98.6%  
5 0.6% 95%  
6 31% 95%  
7 43% 64% Median
8 3% 21%  
9 2% 18%  
10 8% 16%  
11 4% 8%  
12 2% 4%  
13 0.7% 2%  
14 0.4% 1.2%  
15 0.2% 0.7%  
16 0.1% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.4%  
18 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 5% 99.9%  
3 20% 95%  
4 19% 75%  
5 18% 56% Median
6 34% 38%  
7 1.2% 4%  
8 1.4% 3%  
9 1.2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 70% 95% Median
2 22% 25%  
3 1.0% 3%  
4 0.5% 2%  
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 19%  
2 17% 17%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 11%  
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 145 100% 138–153 136–155 134–157 129–159
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 132 99.6% 125–140 123–142 121–144 116–147
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 121 89% 115–128 112–131 110–133 105–137
Partido Socialista 86 110 11% 102–116 100–117 97–119 93–124
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 78 0% 70–85 68–87 67–89 65–94

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.7%  
129 0.1% 99.6%  
130 0.2% 99.5%  
131 0.2% 99.3%  
132 0.4% 99.1%  
133 0.7% 98.7%  
134 0.8% 98%  
135 1.3% 97%  
136 3% 96%  
137 2% 93%  
138 3% 91%  
139 2% 88%  
140 3% 86%  
141 9% 82%  
142 3% 73%  
143 6% 70%  
144 12% 64%  
145 5% 52%  
146 6% 47%  
147 3% 41% Median
148 6% 38%  
149 7% 32%  
150 2% 25%  
151 10% 23%  
152 2% 13%  
153 2% 11%  
154 0.9% 9%  
155 4% 8%  
156 0.9% 5%  
157 2% 4%  
158 1.0% 2%  
159 0.5% 1.0%  
160 0.2% 0.5%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.6% Majority
117 0.3% 99.3%  
118 0.3% 99.1%  
119 0.3% 98.7%  
120 0.6% 98%  
121 0.9% 98%  
122 1.4% 97%  
123 1.4% 96%  
124 3% 94%  
125 3% 92%  
126 3% 89%  
127 4% 86%  
128 5% 82%  
129 5% 77%  
130 5% 71%  
131 10% 66%  
132 9% 56%  
133 3% 48%  
134 5% 44% Median
135 8% 39%  
136 5% 32%  
137 4% 27%  
138 3% 23%  
139 3% 20%  
140 7% 17%  
141 2% 9%  
142 3% 8%  
143 1.1% 5%  
144 2% 3%  
145 0.7% 2%  
146 0.7% 1.3%  
147 0.1% 0.6%  
148 0.1% 0.4%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
104 0.1% 99.7%  
105 0.1% 99.6%  
106 0.1% 99.5%  
107 0.2% 99.4%  
108 0.4% 99.2%  
109 0.8% 98.8%  
110 1.0% 98%  
111 1.0% 97%  
112 2% 96%  
113 2% 94%  
114 1.3% 92%  
115 2% 91%  
116 4% 89% Majority
117 5% 85%  
118 4% 80%  
119 10% 76%  
120 11% 66%  
121 6% 55%  
122 5% 49%  
123 3% 44% Median
124 7% 41%  
125 10% 34%  
126 3% 23%  
127 3% 21%  
128 7% 17%  
129 2% 10%  
130 2% 8%  
131 3% 6%  
132 0.8% 3%  
133 0.6% 3%  
134 0.6% 2%  
135 0.6% 1.4%  
136 0.1% 0.9%  
137 0.4% 0.7%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.2% 99.4%  
95 0.3% 99.1%  
96 0.9% 98.8%  
97 1.0% 98%  
98 0.4% 97%  
99 1.0% 97%  
100 2% 95%  
101 2% 94%  
102 5% 92%  
103 6% 87%  
104 4% 81%  
105 4% 77%  
106 3% 72%  
107 11% 70%  
108 4% 58%  
109 3% 54%  
110 9% 51% Median
111 5% 43%  
112 6% 37%  
113 5% 32%  
114 9% 27%  
115 7% 19%  
116 5% 11% Majority
117 2% 6%  
118 2% 4%  
119 0.5% 3%  
120 0.7% 2%  
121 0.2% 2%  
122 0.7% 1.5%  
123 0.2% 0.8%  
124 0.1% 0.6%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.7% 99.5%  
66 0.8% 98.8%  
67 2% 98%  
68 1.2% 96%  
69 1.2% 94%  
70 4% 93%  
71 2% 89%  
72 4% 87%  
73 3% 83%  
74 6% 81%  
75 9% 74%  
76 6% 65%  
77 5% 59%  
78 5% 54% Median
79 9% 49%  
80 7% 41%  
81 4% 33%  
82 4% 29%  
83 10% 24%  
84 3% 14%  
85 3% 11%  
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.5% 4%  
89 0.8% 3%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.3% 1.3%  
92 0.2% 0.9%  
93 0.2% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations