Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 22–25 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 38.3% 35.8–40.9% 35.1–41.7% 34.5–42.3% 33.3–43.5%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 26.8% 24.6–29.2% 24.0–29.9% 23.4–30.5% 22.4–31.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 10.7% 9.2–12.5% 8.8–13.0% 8.4–13.4% 7.8–14.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 5.3% 4.3–6.7% 4.0–7.1% 3.8–7.4% 3.4–8.2%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 4.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–6.0% 3.0–6.3% 2.6–6.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.3–4.8% 2.2–5.1% 1.8–5.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.6% 0.5–3.1%
LIVRE 0.7% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
Aliança 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%
Chega 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 111 105–118 102–120 101–123 94–128
Partido Social Democrata 89 77 71–82 67–84 64–86 61–96
Bloco de Esquerda 19 23 18–26 18–28 17–29 16–33
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 8 5–13 5–14 5–14 4–17
CDS–Partido Popular 18 6 3–6 2–7 2–7 2–9
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 4 3–6 2–6 2–6 1–9
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
LIVRE 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chega 0 0 0 0 0 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.3% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.6%  
93 0% 99.6%  
94 0.1% 99.5%  
95 0.4% 99.4%  
96 0.2% 99.0%  
97 0.3% 98.8%  
98 0.4% 98.5%  
99 0.2% 98%  
100 0.5% 98%  
101 1.3% 98%  
102 1.4% 96%  
103 2% 95%  
104 1.0% 93%  
105 4% 92%  
106 5% 88%  
107 3% 83%  
108 6% 80%  
109 10% 74%  
110 12% 64%  
111 5% 52% Median
112 4% 47%  
113 12% 43%  
114 6% 31%  
115 6% 25%  
116 3% 19% Majority
117 5% 16%  
118 1.0% 11%  
119 2% 10%  
120 3% 8%  
121 0.8% 5%  
122 2% 4%  
123 0.1% 3%  
124 0.8% 2%  
125 0.3% 2%  
126 0.1% 1.2%  
127 0.5% 1.1%  
128 0.4% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 0.8% 99.2%  
64 1.4% 98%  
65 0.5% 97%  
66 0.6% 97%  
67 1.2% 96%  
68 3% 95%  
69 0.5% 92%  
70 0.7% 91%  
71 3% 91%  
72 5% 88%  
73 4% 83%  
74 2% 79%  
75 10% 77%  
76 7% 67%  
77 12% 60% Median
78 10% 48%  
79 15% 39%  
80 10% 24%  
81 3% 14%  
82 3% 11%  
83 2% 7%  
84 1.2% 6%  
85 0.8% 5%  
86 1.3% 4%  
87 0.4% 2%  
88 0.3% 2%  
89 0.3% 2% Last Result
90 0% 1.4%  
91 0.1% 1.4%  
92 0.1% 1.3%  
93 0.1% 1.2%  
94 0.1% 1.1%  
95 0.3% 1.0%  
96 0.5% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 1.1% 99.8%  
17 3% 98.7%  
18 15% 96%  
19 4% 81% Last Result
20 2% 77%  
21 3% 75%  
22 13% 72%  
23 13% 59% Median
24 21% 45%  
25 9% 24%  
26 7% 15%  
27 3% 8%  
28 1.4% 5%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.2% 1.2%  
31 0.2% 1.0%  
32 0.2% 0.7%  
33 0.2% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.4%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.8% 99.9%  
5 10% 99.1%  
6 18% 89%  
7 2% 71%  
8 30% 69% Median
9 13% 38%  
10 6% 26%  
11 3% 20%  
12 4% 17%  
13 6% 12%  
14 4% 6%  
15 0.7% 2%  
16 0.2% 1.5%  
17 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 8% 100%  
3 9% 92%  
4 20% 83%  
5 4% 63%  
6 51% 59% Median
7 8% 9%  
8 0.3% 0.9%  
9 0.2% 0.6%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100% Last Result
2 9% 99.5%  
3 17% 90%  
4 33% 73% Median
5 6% 40%  
6 33% 34%  
7 0.4% 1.4%  
8 0.5% 1.0%  
9 0.4% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 26%  
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100% Last Result
1 69% 75% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0.3% 0.5%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.9%  
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 141 100% 138–150 136–152 133–156 123–159
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 132 99.6% 129–141 126–146 124–146 116–151
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 119 83% 115–126 112–129 109–132 101–137
Partido Socialista 86 111 19% 105–118 102–120 101–123 94–128
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 83 0% 75–85 72–88 69–92 67–102

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0.3% 100%  
122 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
123 0.1% 99.5%  
124 0.3% 99.4%  
125 0.2% 99.1%  
126 0.1% 98.9%  
127 0.1% 98.8%  
128 0.1% 98.8%  
129 0.3% 98.6%  
130 0.2% 98%  
131 0.1% 98%  
132 0.4% 98%  
133 0.5% 98%  
134 1.0% 97%  
135 0.6% 96%  
136 2% 96%  
137 1.4% 94%  
138 4% 93%  
139 16% 89%  
140 17% 73%  
141 9% 56%  
142 4% 47% Median
143 5% 43%  
144 12% 39%  
145 5% 26%  
146 5% 22%  
147 0.8% 16%  
148 4% 15%  
149 0.6% 12%  
150 1.4% 11%  
151 1.3% 10%  
152 4% 9%  
153 0.8% 5%  
154 0.6% 4%  
155 0.8% 4%  
156 0.4% 3%  
157 1.4% 2%  
158 0.2% 1.0%  
159 0.6% 0.8%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.3% 99.9%  
116 0.2% 99.6% Majority
117 0.1% 99.4%  
118 0.3% 99.3%  
119 0.2% 99.0%  
120 0.2% 98.8%  
121 0.4% 98.6%  
122 0.1% 98%  
123 0.2% 98%  
124 0.8% 98%  
125 1.3% 97%  
126 1.3% 96%  
127 2% 94%  
128 2% 93%  
129 9% 91%  
130 5% 82%  
131 12% 77%  
132 15% 65%  
133 8% 50%  
134 5% 42% Median
135 5% 37%  
136 3% 32%  
137 3% 29%  
138 7% 26%  
139 3% 18%  
140 4% 16%  
141 2% 12%  
142 0.4% 10%  
143 1.0% 10%  
144 2% 9%  
145 1.1% 7%  
146 3% 6%  
147 0.5% 2%  
148 0.2% 2%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.3% 1.2%  
151 0.4% 0.9%  
152 0.3% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.3% 100%  
98 0% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.6%  
100 0.1% 99.6%  
101 0.4% 99.5%  
102 0.1% 99.1%  
103 0.1% 99.1% Last Result
104 0.3% 99.0%  
105 0.2% 98.8%  
106 0.3% 98.6%  
107 0.1% 98%  
108 0.4% 98%  
109 0.5% 98%  
110 0.3% 97%  
111 1.5% 97%  
112 2% 95%  
113 1.2% 94%  
114 2% 93%  
115 7% 91%  
116 2% 83% Majority
117 9% 81%  
118 13% 71%  
119 11% 59% Median
120 3% 48%  
121 12% 46%  
122 6% 34%  
123 10% 28%  
124 4% 18%  
125 2% 14%  
126 5% 12%  
127 2% 7%  
128 0.5% 6%  
129 0.9% 5%  
130 1.1% 4%  
131 0.5% 3%  
132 0.2% 3%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 0.2% 2%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.1% 1.2%  
137 0.8% 1.1%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.3% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.6%  
93 0% 99.6%  
94 0.1% 99.5%  
95 0.4% 99.4%  
96 0.2% 99.0%  
97 0.3% 98.8%  
98 0.4% 98.5%  
99 0.2% 98%  
100 0.5% 98%  
101 1.3% 98%  
102 1.4% 96%  
103 2% 95%  
104 1.0% 93%  
105 4% 92%  
106 5% 88%  
107 3% 83%  
108 6% 80%  
109 10% 74%  
110 12% 64%  
111 5% 52% Median
112 4% 47%  
113 12% 43%  
114 6% 31%  
115 6% 25%  
116 3% 19% Majority
117 5% 16%  
118 1.0% 11%  
119 2% 10%  
120 3% 8%  
121 0.8% 5%  
122 2% 4%  
123 0.1% 3%  
124 0.8% 2%  
125 0.3% 2%  
126 0.1% 1.2%  
127 0.5% 1.1%  
128 0.4% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.8% 99.6%  
68 0.9% 98.8%  
69 0.8% 98%  
70 1.1% 97%  
71 0.6% 96%  
72 3% 95%  
73 1.0% 93%  
74 0.5% 92%  
75 4% 91%  
76 0.7% 87%  
77 0.9% 86%  
78 3% 85%  
79 4% 82%  
80 3% 78%  
81 13% 75%  
82 8% 62%  
83 13% 54% Median
84 17% 41%  
85 14% 24%  
86 1.1% 10%  
87 4% 9%  
88 0.9% 5%  
89 0.7% 4%  
90 0.5% 4%  
91 0.2% 3%  
92 0.6% 3%  
93 0.3% 2%  
94 0.1% 2%  
95 0.4% 2%  
96 0.1% 1.4%  
97 0.1% 1.4%  
98 0% 1.2%  
99 0.2% 1.2%  
100 0.1% 1.0%  
101 0.2% 0.9%  
102 0.5% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations