Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 23–26 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.8% 35.3–40.4% 34.6–41.2% 34.0–41.8% 32.9–43.0%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 26.7% 24.4–29.1% 23.8–29.8% 23.3–30.4% 22.3–31.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 10.2% 8.7–11.9% 8.3–12.4% 8.0–12.8% 7.4–13.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 5.2% 4.2–6.5% 3.9–6.9% 3.7–7.3% 3.2–8.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 4.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.6% 2.7–5.9% 2.3–6.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.6–5.2% 2.4–5.5% 2.1–6.1%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 1.7% 1.2–2.6% 1.0–2.8% 0.9–3.0% 0.7–3.5%
LIVRE 0.7% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
Chega 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
Aliança 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 115 105–117 101–118 101–121 95–125
Partido Social Democrata 89 73 72–83 68–85 66–86 64–94
Bloco de Esquerda 19 23 18–24 17–26 16–28 14–30
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 9 5–11 5–13 5–14 4–17
CDS–Partido Popular 18 5 2–7 2–7 2–8 2–10
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 6 3–6 3–6 2–8 2–9
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
LIVRE 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Chega 0 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.1% 99.5%  
96 0.1% 99.4%  
97 0.2% 99.3%  
98 0.3% 99.1%  
99 0.3% 98.7%  
100 0.5% 98%  
101 4% 98%  
102 1.0% 93%  
103 1.3% 92%  
104 0.9% 91%  
105 2% 90%  
106 0.9% 88%  
107 2% 87%  
108 2% 85%  
109 3% 83%  
110 8% 80%  
111 4% 72%  
112 4% 68%  
113 5% 63%  
114 3% 59%  
115 41% 56% Median
116 1.1% 15% Majority
117 7% 14%  
118 3% 7%  
119 1.0% 4%  
120 0.6% 3%  
121 1.0% 3%  
122 0.5% 2%  
123 0.6% 1.3%  
124 0.1% 0.7%  
125 0.1% 0.6%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.7%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0% 99.6%  
64 0.1% 99.6%  
65 0.3% 99.4%  
66 2% 99.2%  
67 1.3% 97%  
68 2% 96%  
69 0.7% 94%  
70 0.4% 93%  
71 2% 93%  
72 32% 91%  
73 13% 59% Median
74 6% 46%  
75 1.4% 40%  
76 3% 39%  
77 1.0% 36%  
78 4% 35%  
79 11% 31%  
80 6% 20%  
81 1.3% 14%  
82 0.3% 13%  
83 3% 13%  
84 3% 9%  
85 3% 7%  
86 2% 4%  
87 0.2% 2%  
88 0.2% 2%  
89 0% 2% Last Result
90 0.1% 1.5%  
91 0.2% 1.4%  
92 0.1% 1.3%  
93 0.5% 1.1%  
94 0.1% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.6%  
15 0.5% 99.4%  
16 2% 98.8%  
17 4% 97%  
18 7% 94%  
19 9% 87% Last Result
20 8% 78%  
21 4% 70%  
22 2% 66%  
23 30% 64% Median
24 26% 34%  
25 1.2% 8%  
26 3% 7%  
27 1.5% 5%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 1.3%  
30 0.1% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 2% 99.8%  
5 15% 98%  
6 8% 82%  
7 7% 74%  
8 14% 68%  
9 33% 54% Median
10 1.0% 20%  
11 11% 19%  
12 1.0% 8%  
13 3% 7%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.1% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.8%  
17 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 10% 100%  
3 3% 89%  
4 35% 86%  
5 3% 51% Median
6 37% 49%  
7 9% 11%  
8 1.0% 3%  
9 0.6% 2%  
10 0.8% 1.3%  
11 0.2% 0.5%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 2% 99.9%  
3 8% 97%  
4 27% 90%  
5 5% 62%  
6 53% 58% Median
7 1.0% 4%  
8 2% 3%  
9 1.0% 1.4%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 33%  
2 23% 23%  
3 0.1% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100% Last Result
1 70% 75% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 6%  
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.6%  
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 145 100% 136–147 133–150 131–153 124–155
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 135 99.8% 127–141 125–142 122–144 117–147
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 122 83% 113–126 110–127 108–130 102–132
Partido Socialista 86 115 15% 105–117 101–118 101–121 95–125
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 79 0% 76–89 74–90 72–92 68–99

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
123 0.4% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.5%  
125 0.4% 99.4%  
126 0.1% 98.9%  
127 0.1% 98.8%  
128 0.1% 98.7%  
129 0.3% 98.5%  
130 0.7% 98%  
131 1.3% 98%  
132 0.9% 96%  
133 1.1% 95%  
134 2% 94%  
135 2% 92%  
136 4% 91%  
137 2% 86%  
138 8% 84%  
139 3% 76%  
140 4% 74%  
141 3% 70%  
142 9% 66%  
143 3% 57%  
144 2% 55%  
145 8% 52%  
146 6% 45%  
147 30% 39% Median
148 0.7% 9%  
149 2% 8%  
150 2% 6%  
151 0.4% 4%  
152 0.8% 4%  
153 2% 3%  
154 0.6% 1.1%  
155 0.2% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.4%  
157 0% 0.3%  
158 0% 0.2%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.8% Majority
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.3% 99.5%  
119 0.5% 99.2%  
120 0.2% 98.7%  
121 0.2% 98%  
122 1.1% 98%  
123 0.6% 97%  
124 0.8% 97%  
125 4% 96%  
126 0.9% 92%  
127 2% 91%  
128 4% 89%  
129 2% 86%  
130 6% 84%  
131 2% 78%  
132 4% 76%  
133 5% 72%  
134 14% 67%  
135 4% 53%  
136 3% 48%  
137 2% 45%  
138 26% 43% Median
139 5% 17%  
140 0.4% 12%  
141 6% 11%  
142 0.6% 5%  
143 1.0% 4%  
144 2% 4%  
145 0.7% 2%  
146 0.7% 1.2%  
147 0.1% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.4%  
149 0% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.2% 100%  
99 0% 99.8%  
100 0% 99.8%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 0.1% 99.6%  
103 0.1% 99.4% Last Result
104 0.2% 99.4%  
105 0.2% 99.1%  
106 0.7% 98.9%  
107 0.6% 98%  
108 0.5% 98%  
109 0.8% 97%  
110 1.4% 96%  
111 0.9% 95%  
112 3% 94%  
113 0.7% 91%  
114 5% 90%  
115 2% 85%  
116 1.3% 83% Majority
117 4% 82%  
118 9% 78%  
119 2% 69%  
120 5% 67%  
121 2% 61%  
122 9% 59%  
123 7% 50%  
124 27% 43% Median
125 1.1% 16%  
126 10% 15%  
127 0.6% 5%  
128 0.9% 5%  
129 0.9% 4%  
130 0.6% 3%  
131 0.3% 2%  
132 1.5% 2%  
133 0.1% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.1% 99.5%  
96 0.1% 99.4%  
97 0.2% 99.3%  
98 0.3% 99.1%  
99 0.3% 98.7%  
100 0.5% 98%  
101 4% 98%  
102 1.0% 93%  
103 1.3% 92%  
104 0.9% 91%  
105 2% 90%  
106 0.9% 88%  
107 2% 87%  
108 2% 85%  
109 3% 83%  
110 8% 80%  
111 4% 72%  
112 4% 68%  
113 5% 63%  
114 3% 59%  
115 41% 56% Median
116 1.1% 15% Majority
117 7% 14%  
118 3% 7%  
119 1.0% 4%  
120 0.6% 3%  
121 1.0% 3%  
122 0.5% 2%  
123 0.6% 1.3%  
124 0.1% 0.7%  
125 0.1% 0.6%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.1% 99.5%  
70 0.2% 99.4%  
71 1.3% 99.2%  
72 2% 98%  
73 0.6% 96%  
74 2% 95%  
75 0.9% 93%  
76 28% 92%  
77 4% 64%  
78 3% 61% Median
79 15% 58%  
80 3% 42%  
81 3% 39%  
82 4% 36%  
83 4% 32%  
84 3% 27%  
85 7% 25%  
86 5% 18%  
87 0.8% 13%  
88 2% 12%  
89 3% 11%  
90 4% 7%  
91 1.0% 4%  
92 0.6% 3%  
93 0.2% 2%  
94 0.3% 2%  
95 0.1% 1.4%  
96 0.1% 1.3%  
97 0.2% 1.2%  
98 0.2% 1.0%  
99 0.4% 0.8%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations