Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 25–28 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.7% 35.2–40.3% 34.5–41.0% 33.9–41.6% 32.7–42.9%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 27.7% 25.4–30.1% 24.8–30.8% 24.2–31.4% 23.2–32.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 10.0% 8.6–11.7% 8.2–12.2% 7.8–12.7% 7.2–13.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.3% 5.2–7.8% 4.9–8.2% 4.6–8.6% 4.2–9.3%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 4.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–6.0% 3.0–6.3% 2.6–6.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.2% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.5%
LIVRE 0.7% 1.3% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.6% 0.5–3.1%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
Chega 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
Aliança 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 108 102–117 100–118 98–122 91–123
Partido Social Democrata 89 79 71–84 68–86 66–88 65–94
Bloco de Esquerda 19 21 18–24 17–25 16–27 14–28
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 10 7–16 6–17 5–17 5–19
CDS–Partido Popular 18 6 4–8 2–10 2–10 2–12
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 4 2–6 2–6 2–6 1–9
LIVRE 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Chega 0 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 0.1% 99.5%  
93 0.1% 99.3%  
94 0.3% 99.2%  
95 0.3% 98.9%  
96 0.6% 98.6%  
97 0.3% 98%  
98 0.7% 98%  
99 0.3% 97%  
100 2% 97%  
101 1.3% 95%  
102 4% 94%  
103 3% 90%  
104 6% 87%  
105 6% 81%  
106 6% 75%  
107 6% 69%  
108 16% 63% Median
109 5% 47%  
110 5% 43%  
111 9% 37%  
112 2% 28%  
113 4% 26%  
114 3% 22%  
115 4% 19%  
116 3% 15% Majority
117 5% 12%  
118 2% 7%  
119 2% 5%  
120 0.1% 3%  
121 0.1% 3%  
122 2% 3%  
123 0.6% 1.0%  
124 0.1% 0.4%  
125 0.2% 0.3%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 1.0% 99.6%  
66 2% 98.6%  
67 0.4% 97%  
68 2% 97%  
69 1.0% 94%  
70 1.0% 93%  
71 3% 92%  
72 5% 89%  
73 2% 84%  
74 9% 82%  
75 3% 72%  
76 4% 69%  
77 5% 65%  
78 8% 60%  
79 19% 52% Median
80 5% 33%  
81 7% 29%  
82 5% 22%  
83 5% 16%  
84 2% 11%  
85 3% 9%  
86 2% 6%  
87 0.3% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.3% 2% Last Result
90 0.3% 2%  
91 0.1% 1.4%  
92 0.5% 1.3%  
93 0.2% 0.8%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0.1% 99.8%  
14 0.3% 99.7%  
15 0.6% 99.4%  
16 2% 98.8%  
17 6% 96%  
18 14% 91%  
19 16% 77% Last Result
20 6% 61%  
21 24% 54% Median
22 1.2% 30%  
23 4% 29%  
24 17% 24%  
25 2% 7%  
26 2% 5%  
27 1.1% 3%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.4%  
30 0% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 4% 97%  
7 3% 93%  
8 12% 90%  
9 15% 78%  
10 23% 64% Median
11 3% 40%  
12 3% 37%  
13 8% 34%  
14 12% 25%  
15 0.6% 14%  
16 4% 13%  
17 6% 9% Last Result
18 1.1% 2%  
19 0.9% 1.2%  
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100%  
3 3% 94%  
4 20% 91%  
5 4% 71%  
6 45% 67% Median
7 12% 22%  
8 2% 11%  
9 1.1% 8%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.1% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.6%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100% Last Result
2 10% 98.9%  
3 21% 89%  
4 30% 68% Median
5 4% 38%  
6 32% 34%  
7 0.4% 2%  
8 0.8% 1.4%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 56% 68% Median
2 12% 13%  
3 0.4% 0.7%  
4 0.1% 0.3%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 11%  
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 9%  
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 140 100% 135–148 131–151 130–153 125–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 129 98.6% 123–137 121–139 119–141 113–147
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 119 85% 113–130 111–131 110–132 103–134
Partido Socialista 86 108 15% 102–117 100–118 98–122 91–123
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 84 0% 76–90 74–94 72–95 70–99

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
123 0% 99.7%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.2% 99.6%  
126 0.4% 99.4%  
127 0.3% 98.9%  
128 0.8% 98.7%  
129 0.2% 98%  
130 2% 98%  
131 2% 95%  
132 0.8% 93%  
133 0.9% 92%  
134 1.0% 91%  
135 1.0% 90%  
136 4% 89%  
137 7% 86%  
138 4% 79%  
139 23% 75% Median
140 8% 52%  
141 3% 44%  
142 5% 41%  
143 4% 36%  
144 11% 32%  
145 3% 22%  
146 4% 19%  
147 3% 15%  
148 3% 12%  
149 3% 9%  
150 0.6% 6%  
151 1.3% 6%  
152 1.2% 4%  
153 2% 3%  
154 0.5% 2%  
155 0.1% 1.1%  
156 0.7% 1.0%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.2%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.3% 99.7%  
114 0.3% 99.4%  
115 0.5% 99.1%  
116 0.4% 98.6% Majority
117 0.2% 98%  
118 0.3% 98%  
119 1.1% 98%  
120 1.2% 97%  
121 2% 95%  
122 3% 93%  
123 3% 90%  
124 4% 88%  
125 3% 84%  
126 2% 81%  
127 3% 79%  
128 7% 76%  
129 20% 68% Median
130 7% 48%  
131 9% 41%  
132 5% 32%  
133 3% 27%  
134 6% 24%  
135 3% 18%  
136 4% 15%  
137 2% 11%  
138 0.5% 9%  
139 3% 8%  
140 2% 5%  
141 0.5% 3%  
142 0.7% 2%  
143 0.3% 1.3%  
144 0.1% 1.0%  
145 0.1% 0.9%  
146 0% 0.8%  
147 0.6% 0.7%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
104 0.1% 99.5%  
105 0.3% 99.4%  
106 0.1% 99.1%  
107 0.2% 98.9%  
108 0.7% 98.7%  
109 0.4% 98%  
110 1.2% 98%  
111 3% 96%  
112 3% 94%  
113 2% 91%  
114 2% 89%  
115 2% 87%  
116 4% 85% Majority
117 4% 80%  
118 18% 77% Median
119 11% 59%  
120 8% 48%  
121 8% 40%  
122 6% 33%  
123 5% 27%  
124 2% 22%  
125 6% 20%  
126 1.4% 14%  
127 1.2% 12%  
128 0.6% 11%  
129 0.6% 11%  
130 2% 10%  
131 4% 8%  
132 2% 4%  
133 1.3% 2%  
134 0.4% 0.7%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 0.1% 99.5%  
93 0.1% 99.3%  
94 0.3% 99.2%  
95 0.3% 98.9%  
96 0.6% 98.6%  
97 0.3% 98%  
98 0.7% 98%  
99 0.3% 97%  
100 2% 97%  
101 1.3% 95%  
102 4% 94%  
103 3% 90%  
104 6% 87%  
105 6% 81%  
106 6% 75%  
107 6% 69%  
108 16% 63% Median
109 5% 47%  
110 5% 43%  
111 9% 37%  
112 2% 28%  
113 4% 26%  
114 3% 22%  
115 4% 19%  
116 3% 15% Majority
117 5% 12%  
118 2% 7%  
119 2% 5%  
120 0.1% 3%  
121 0.1% 3%  
122 2% 3%  
123 0.6% 1.0%  
124 0.1% 0.4%  
125 0.2% 0.3%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 0.8% 99.4%  
72 2% 98.6%  
73 0.8% 97%  
74 1.4% 96%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 93%  
77 2% 90%  
78 4% 87%  
79 4% 84%  
80 4% 80%  
81 7% 76%  
82 7% 69%  
83 7% 62%  
84 9% 56%  
85 20% 47% Median
86 2% 27%  
87 8% 24%  
88 3% 16%  
89 1.3% 13%  
90 3% 12%  
91 0.9% 9%  
92 0.7% 8%  
93 0.8% 7%  
94 2% 7%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.2%  
99 0.2% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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