Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Público and RTP, 26–29 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 36.6% 35.6–37.7% 35.3–38.1% 35.0–38.3% 34.5–38.9%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 29.7% 28.7–30.7% 28.4–31.0% 28.1–31.3% 27.6–31.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.9% 9.2–10.6% 9.1–10.8% 8.9–11.0% 8.6–11.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.5% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.8% 5.0–7.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 5.0% 4.5–5.5% 4.4–5.6% 4.3–5.8% 4.0–6.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.0% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.8%
LIVRE 0.7% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5%
Aliança 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5%
Chega 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 106 102–109 102–110 100–112 96–112
Partido Social Democrata 89 84 81–86 79–87 78–89 77–93
Bloco de Esquerda 19 21 18–23 18–24 18–24 18–24
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 9 8–11 7–12 6–13 6–14
CDS–Partido Popular 18 6 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–10
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
LIVRE 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chega 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.2% 99.5%  
98 0.5% 99.2%  
99 0.8% 98.7%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 6% 95%  
103 4% 89%  
104 8% 85%  
105 18% 77%  
106 23% 59% Median
107 9% 37%  
108 12% 28%  
109 9% 16%  
110 3% 7%  
111 1.3% 5%  
112 3% 3%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.6% 100%  
78 2% 99.4%  
79 3% 97%  
80 4% 95%  
81 22% 91%  
82 7% 69%  
83 8% 61%  
84 17% 53% Median
85 12% 36%  
86 17% 24%  
87 4% 7%  
88 0.4% 3%  
89 1.1% 3% Last Result
90 0.2% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.5%  
92 0.3% 0.9%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.4%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 15% 99.7%  
19 30% 85% Last Result
20 4% 55%  
21 6% 50% Median
22 6% 44%  
23 32% 39%  
24 7% 7%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 4% 100%  
7 2% 96%  
8 17% 94%  
9 48% 77% Median
10 8% 29%  
11 13% 21%  
12 3% 8%  
13 3% 4%  
14 1.2% 1.2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.8%  
6 73% 99.7% Median
7 24% 27%  
8 1.4% 3%  
9 0.6% 1.3%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 5% 100%  
3 53% 95% Median
4 41% 42%  
5 0.4% 0.7%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 86% 86% Median
2 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 136 100% 133–139 132–140 130–141 126–142
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 127 99.7% 123–131 122–131 120–132 116–132
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 115 37% 112–118 112–120 110–121 107–122
Partido Socialista 86 106 0% 102–109 102–110 100–112 96–112
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 90 0% 87–92 86–93 85–95 84–99

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.4% 99.7%  
127 0.3% 99.3%  
128 0.5% 99.1%  
129 0.4% 98.6%  
130 0.9% 98%  
131 0.7% 97%  
132 3% 97%  
133 5% 94%  
134 20% 89%  
135 12% 70%  
136 14% 58% Median
137 18% 44%  
138 8% 26%  
139 8% 17%  
140 6% 10%  
141 3% 4%  
142 0.9% 1.2%  
143 0.2% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 0.5% 99.7% Majority
117 0.4% 99.3%  
118 0.1% 98.9%  
119 0.7% 98.8%  
120 1.0% 98%  
121 0.8% 97%  
122 3% 96%  
123 6% 93%  
124 7% 88%  
125 18% 81%  
126 8% 63%  
127 12% 55% Median
128 16% 43%  
129 6% 26%  
130 10% 21%  
131 8% 11%  
132 3% 3%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.2% 0.2%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9% Last Result
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.1% 99.6%  
107 0.4% 99.5%  
108 0.6% 99.1%  
109 0.4% 98%  
110 2% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 7% 95%  
113 7% 88%  
114 17% 81%  
115 26% 64% Median
116 8% 37% Majority
117 15% 29%  
118 6% 15%  
119 3% 9%  
120 2% 6%  
121 4% 5%  
122 0.4% 0.8%  
123 0.3% 0.4%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.2% 99.5%  
98 0.5% 99.2%  
99 0.8% 98.7%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 6% 95%  
103 4% 89%  
104 8% 85%  
105 18% 77%  
106 23% 59% Median
107 9% 37%  
108 12% 28%  
109 9% 16%  
110 3% 7%  
111 1.3% 5%  
112 3% 3%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.3% 100%  
84 1.1% 99.6%  
85 3% 98.5%  
86 4% 96%  
87 11% 91%  
88 17% 80%  
89 8% 63%  
90 15% 56% Median
91 13% 40%  
92 18% 27%  
93 5% 9%  
94 0.8% 4%  
95 0.9% 3%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.2%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations