Opinion Poll by GfK Metris for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 23–29 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 38.6% 36.9–40.4% 36.5–40.9% 36.1–41.3% 35.3–42.1%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 28.4% 26.9–30.1% 26.4–30.5% 26.0–30.9% 25.3–31.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 10.2% 9.2–11.3% 8.9–11.6% 8.6–11.9% 8.2–12.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.1% 5.3–7.0% 5.1–7.3% 4.9–7.5% 4.6–8.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 5.1% 4.4–6.0% 4.2–6.2% 4.1–6.4% 3.7–6.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.1% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–4.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.0–4.5%
LIVRE 0.7% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Chega 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Aliança 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 110 106–115 104–116 101–117 97–118
Partido Social Democrata 89 79 73–83 71–84 71–85 69–88
Bloco de Esquerda 19 22 18–24 18–24 18–24 17–26
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 9 7–13 6–15 6–15 6–16
CDS–Partido Popular 18 6 6–8 6–9 4–10 4–11
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 3 3–4 2–6 2–6 2–6
LIVRE 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Chega 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.6% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.3%  
99 0.1% 99.3%  
100 0.9% 99.2%  
101 1.2% 98%  
102 0.8% 97%  
103 0.9% 96%  
104 3% 95%  
105 2% 92%  
106 6% 91%  
107 6% 85%  
108 12% 80%  
109 12% 67%  
110 16% 56% Median
111 7% 40%  
112 4% 33%  
113 9% 29%  
114 9% 20%  
115 4% 11%  
116 2% 7% Majority
117 3% 5%  
118 1.1% 1.4%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.3%  
71 7% 98.9%  
72 0.5% 92%  
73 1.4% 91%  
74 2% 90%  
75 4% 88%  
76 4% 84%  
77 8% 80%  
78 20% 72%  
79 10% 52% Median
80 5% 42%  
81 23% 37%  
82 2% 14%  
83 7% 12%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.1% 3%  
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.3% 1.1%  
88 0.4% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.2% 99.8%  
17 2% 99.6%  
18 22% 98%  
19 11% 76% Last Result
20 8% 65%  
21 7% 57%  
22 5% 51% Median
23 26% 46%  
24 18% 19%  
25 0.4% 2%  
26 1.2% 1.4%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 6% 99.6%  
7 4% 94%  
8 10% 90%  
9 32% 79% Median
10 17% 47%  
11 9% 30%  
12 3% 21%  
13 9% 19%  
14 4% 9%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0.1% 0.5%  
17 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 3% 99.8%  
5 0.9% 97%  
6 62% 96% Median
7 15% 35%  
8 10% 19%  
9 5% 9%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.7% 1.1%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 8% 99.8%  
3 42% 92% Median
4 41% 50%  
5 0.7% 8%  
6 8% 8%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 140 100% 137–147 136–148 134–149 131–151
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 131 100% 127–137 125–137 123–140 121–141
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 120 87% 115–125 114–125 112–127 109–130
Partido Socialista 86 110 7% 106–115 104–116 101–117 97–118
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 86 0% 80–89 78–90 78–92 76–96

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.2% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.7%  
131 0.5% 99.7%  
132 0.5% 99.2%  
133 1.1% 98.7%  
134 0.8% 98%  
135 0.7% 97%  
136 3% 96%  
137 8% 93%  
138 5% 85%  
139 14% 80%  
140 17% 66%  
141 6% 50% Median
142 9% 44%  
143 14% 35%  
144 6% 21%  
145 4% 15%  
146 1.3% 11%  
147 1.3% 10%  
148 6% 9%  
149 2% 3%  
150 0.1% 1.3%  
151 1.1% 1.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 100%  
118 0.2% 100%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.8%  
121 0.6% 99.5%  
122 0.2% 98.9%  
123 1.5% 98.8%  
124 1.0% 97%  
125 2% 96%  
126 4% 94%  
127 2% 91%  
128 8% 89%  
129 15% 80%  
130 11% 66%  
131 13% 55%  
132 8% 42% Median
133 12% 34%  
134 4% 22%  
135 5% 18%  
136 2% 13%  
137 7% 11%  
138 2% 4%  
139 0.1% 3%  
140 0.9% 3%  
141 2% 2%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.4% 99.9%  
109 0.7% 99.5%  
110 0.3% 98.9%  
111 0.9% 98.6%  
112 0.7% 98%  
113 1.2% 97%  
114 5% 96%  
115 4% 91%  
116 5% 87% Majority
117 12% 82%  
118 5% 69%  
119 7% 64% Median
120 15% 57%  
121 7% 42%  
122 6% 35%  
123 4% 28%  
124 7% 24%  
125 13% 17%  
126 0.9% 4%  
127 2% 3%  
128 0.4% 2%  
129 0.3% 1.5%  
130 1.0% 1.2%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.6% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.3%  
99 0.1% 99.3%  
100 0.9% 99.2%  
101 1.2% 98%  
102 0.8% 97%  
103 0.9% 96%  
104 3% 95%  
105 2% 92%  
106 6% 91%  
107 6% 85%  
108 12% 80%  
109 12% 67%  
110 16% 56% Median
111 7% 40%  
112 4% 33%  
113 9% 29%  
114 9% 20%  
115 4% 11%  
116 2% 7% Majority
117 3% 5%  
118 1.1% 1.4%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.8% 99.8%  
77 0.5% 99.0%  
78 7% 98.5%  
79 0.5% 91%  
80 1.2% 91%  
81 2% 90%  
82 3% 87%  
83 8% 84%  
84 16% 76%  
85 8% 60% Median
86 13% 52%  
87 20% 39%  
88 4% 19%  
89 8% 15%  
90 2% 7%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.3% 3%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.2% 1.1%  
95 0.2% 0.8%  
96 0.4% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations