Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 26–29 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 35.3% 32.9–37.9% 32.2–38.6% 31.6–39.2% 30.5–40.5%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 28.8% 26.6–31.3% 25.9–32.0% 25.3–32.6% 24.3–33.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.2% 7.8–10.9% 7.4–11.3% 7.1–11.8% 6.5–12.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.8% 6.6–9.4% 6.2–9.9% 5.9–10.3% 5.4–11.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 4.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.3–6.1% 3.1–6.5% 2.7–7.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.2% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.5%
LIVRE 0.7% 1.5% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.6% 0.5–3.1%
Chega 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
Aliança 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 100 91–109 91–112 89–114 87–116
Partido Social Democrata 89 82 74–93 73–95 71–96 67–98
Bloco de Esquerda 19 20 16–24 15–24 14–25 10–27
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 17 11–20 11–20 9–21 8–23
CDS–Partido Popular 18 6 4–8 3–10 2–10 2–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 4 2–6 2–6 2–6 1–8
LIVRE 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–5
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Chega 0 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
87 0.6% 99.6%  
88 0.9% 98.9%  
89 1.5% 98%  
90 0.7% 97%  
91 8% 96%  
92 3% 88%  
93 3% 85%  
94 3% 82%  
95 3% 79%  
96 5% 77%  
97 7% 72%  
98 3% 65%  
99 3% 62%  
100 15% 59% Median
101 6% 44%  
102 9% 38%  
103 1.5% 29%  
104 3% 28%  
105 2% 25%  
106 9% 24%  
107 1.5% 15%  
108 3% 13%  
109 2% 10%  
110 1.1% 8%  
111 2% 7%  
112 2% 5%  
113 0.4% 4%  
114 2% 3%  
115 0.7% 1.4%  
116 0.3% 0.7% Majority
117 0.1% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.5%  
68 0.2% 99.2%  
69 0.1% 99.0%  
70 1.0% 99.0%  
71 0.5% 98%  
72 0.9% 97%  
73 2% 97%  
74 10% 94%  
75 0.7% 85%  
76 3% 84%  
77 3% 81%  
78 5% 78%  
79 13% 73%  
80 4% 60%  
81 4% 56%  
82 5% 52% Median
83 3% 47%  
84 10% 44%  
85 7% 34%  
86 2% 27%  
87 3% 24%  
88 2% 21%  
89 1.1% 19% Last Result
90 2% 18%  
91 2% 16%  
92 0.8% 14%  
93 5% 14%  
94 3% 8%  
95 2% 5%  
96 1.2% 3%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.0%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.7% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.2%  
12 0.4% 99.0%  
13 0.5% 98.6%  
14 2% 98%  
15 5% 96%  
16 5% 91%  
17 11% 86%  
18 15% 75%  
19 7% 59% Last Result
20 4% 52% Median
21 17% 48%  
22 5% 30%  
23 4% 25%  
24 17% 21%  
25 2% 4%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.1% 99.8%  
8 0.7% 99.7%  
9 3% 99.0%  
10 1.1% 96%  
11 8% 95%  
12 4% 88%  
13 6% 84%  
14 9% 78%  
15 11% 69%  
16 4% 59%  
17 29% 55% Last Result, Median
18 9% 26%  
19 7% 17%  
20 6% 10%  
21 2% 4%  
22 1.1% 2%  
23 0.6% 1.0%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 3% 96%  
4 10% 92%  
5 2% 83%  
6 46% 81% Median
7 25% 35%  
8 0.4% 10%  
9 0.7% 10%  
10 7% 9%  
11 0.6% 2%  
12 0.5% 2%  
13 1.0% 1.2%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100% Last Result
2 18% 99.4%  
3 29% 81%  
4 27% 52% Median
5 6% 25%  
6 18% 19%  
7 0.3% 1.3%  
8 0.6% 1.0%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 73% 89% Median
2 15% 16%  
3 0.5% 1.3%  
4 0.1% 0.8%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 26%  
2 16% 16%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 10%  
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 136 100% 125–143 124–146 122–148 121–151
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 121 72% 110–128 107–129 107–132 104–137
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 116 54% 108–125 106–128 105–130 103–133
Partido Socialista 86 100 0.7% 91–109 91–112 89–114 87–116
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 89 0% 80–99 79–100 77–102 73–105

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.9% 99.5%  
122 1.2% 98.6% Last Result
123 2% 97%  
124 2% 95%  
125 4% 93%  
126 2% 89%  
127 2% 87%  
128 1.1% 85%  
129 3% 84%  
130 2% 81%  
131 7% 80%  
132 3% 73%  
133 4% 70%  
134 7% 66%  
135 5% 59%  
136 5% 54%  
137 6% 49% Median
138 3% 43%  
139 2% 40%  
140 4% 37%  
141 13% 33%  
142 8% 20%  
143 3% 12%  
144 0.9% 9%  
145 3% 8%  
146 2% 5%  
147 0.4% 3%  
148 0.9% 3%  
149 0.2% 2%  
150 0.3% 2%  
151 1.2% 2%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.2% 0.2%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.1% 99.6%  
104 0.5% 99.5%  
105 0.6% 99.0% Last Result
106 0.7% 98%  
107 4% 98%  
108 1.4% 94%  
109 2% 92%  
110 2% 91%  
111 3% 88%  
112 4% 85%  
113 2% 81%  
114 2% 80%  
115 6% 78%  
116 3% 72% Majority
117 2% 69%  
118 7% 67%  
119 3% 59%  
120 6% 57% Median
121 6% 51%  
122 3% 45%  
123 1.5% 42%  
124 13% 41%  
125 4% 28%  
126 3% 24%  
127 8% 21%  
128 4% 13%  
129 4% 9%  
130 0.8% 5%  
131 1.4% 4%  
132 0.3% 3%  
133 0.7% 2%  
134 0.1% 2%  
135 0.1% 2%  
136 0.2% 1.4%  
137 1.1% 1.2%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
104 0.6% 98.9%  
105 3% 98%  
106 1.0% 96%  
107 3% 95%  
108 4% 92%  
109 3% 88%  
110 5% 85%  
111 4% 80%  
112 6% 76%  
113 6% 70%  
114 4% 64%  
115 6% 60%  
116 9% 54% Majority
117 13% 45% Median
118 0.8% 32%  
119 6% 31%  
120 2% 25%  
121 7% 23%  
122 0.7% 16%  
123 2% 15%  
124 1.3% 13%  
125 2% 11%  
126 2% 9%  
127 1.1% 8%  
128 3% 7%  
129 1.4% 4%  
130 0.9% 3%  
131 0.5% 2%  
132 0.6% 1.2%  
133 0.4% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
87 0.6% 99.6%  
88 0.9% 98.9%  
89 1.5% 98%  
90 0.7% 97%  
91 8% 96%  
92 3% 88%  
93 3% 85%  
94 3% 82%  
95 3% 79%  
96 5% 77%  
97 7% 72%  
98 3% 65%  
99 3% 62%  
100 15% 59% Median
101 6% 44%  
102 9% 38%  
103 1.5% 29%  
104 3% 28%  
105 2% 25%  
106 9% 24%  
107 1.5% 15%  
108 3% 13%  
109 2% 10%  
110 1.1% 8%  
111 2% 7%  
112 2% 5%  
113 0.4% 4%  
114 2% 3%  
115 0.7% 1.4%  
116 0.3% 0.7% Majority
117 0.1% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.7%  
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 0.3% 99.4%  
75 0.2% 99.1%  
76 1.2% 98.9%  
77 0.7% 98%  
78 0.7% 97%  
79 2% 96%  
80 5% 94%  
81 8% 90%  
82 2% 82%  
83 3% 79%  
84 2% 77%  
85 16% 75%  
86 2% 59%  
87 3% 57%  
88 2% 53% Median
89 3% 51%  
90 12% 48%  
91 3% 36%  
92 7% 32%  
93 2% 25%  
94 3% 23%  
95 2% 20%  
96 3% 19%  
97 2% 16%  
98 2% 14%  
99 5% 12%  
100 2% 7%  
101 2% 5%  
102 1.1% 3%  
103 0.8% 2%  
104 0.5% 1.0%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations