Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 27–30 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 35.5% 33.1–38.1% 32.4–38.8% 31.8–39.4% 30.6–40.7%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 28.5% 26.2–31.0% 25.6–31.6% 25.0–32.3% 24.0–33.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.5% 8.1–11.2% 7.7–11.7% 7.4–12.1% 6.8–13.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.8% 6.6–9.4% 6.2–9.9% 5.9–10.3% 5.4–11.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 4.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.0–5.8% 2.8–6.1% 2.5–6.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 2.8% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.2% 1.8–4.5% 1.5–5.1%
LIVRE 0.7% 1.5% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
Chega 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.6% 0.5–3.1%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
Aliança 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 102 92–111 89–111 89–113 86–116
Partido Social Democrata 89 80 74–91 73–93 71–95 67–98
Bloco de Esquerda 19 20 17–24 16–25 14–26 11–28
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 17 13–20 11–21 9–22 8–24
CDS–Partido Popular 18 6 2–7 2–7 2–10 2–11
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 3 2–6 2–6 1–6 1–6
LIVRE 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–5
Chega 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Aliança 0 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
87 0.3% 99.4%  
88 0.8% 99.1%  
89 4% 98%  
90 3% 94%  
91 0.7% 92%  
92 2% 91%  
93 0.5% 89%  
94 1.2% 89%  
95 1.3% 88%  
96 3% 86%  
97 1.5% 83%  
98 3% 82%  
99 4% 79%  
100 16% 75%  
101 6% 59%  
102 4% 53% Median
103 2% 49%  
104 3% 47%  
105 13% 44%  
106 7% 31%  
107 1.4% 25%  
108 5% 23%  
109 3% 18%  
110 1.0% 15%  
111 10% 14%  
112 1.0% 5%  
113 2% 4%  
114 0.5% 2%  
115 0.6% 1.2%  
116 0.2% 0.6% Majority
117 0.1% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.3%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.5%  
68 0.2% 99.3%  
69 0.3% 99.1%  
70 1.2% 98.8%  
71 2% 98%  
72 0.5% 96%  
73 4% 95%  
74 3% 91%  
75 9% 88%  
76 3% 79%  
77 8% 76%  
78 6% 68%  
79 10% 62%  
80 16% 52% Median
81 3% 36%  
82 4% 34%  
83 4% 30%  
84 6% 26%  
85 3% 19%  
86 1.3% 16%  
87 3% 15%  
88 1.4% 13%  
89 0.5% 11% Last Result
90 0.5% 11%  
91 1.2% 10%  
92 0.8% 9%  
93 4% 8%  
94 0.8% 4%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.4% 1.2%  
97 0.2% 0.7%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.6%  
12 0.2% 99.3%  
13 1.1% 99.1%  
14 1.0% 98%  
15 2% 97%  
16 1.2% 95%  
17 17% 94%  
18 19% 77%  
19 7% 58% Last Result
20 3% 51% Median
21 8% 49%  
22 3% 40%  
23 23% 38%  
24 9% 15%  
25 2% 5%  
26 1.2% 4%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 0.2% 99.8%  
8 2% 99.6%  
9 1.3% 98%  
10 1.2% 97%  
11 2% 95%  
12 2% 93%  
13 5% 91%  
14 13% 86%  
15 3% 74%  
16 2% 70%  
17 48% 69% Last Result, Median
18 6% 21%  
19 3% 14%  
20 3% 11%  
21 4% 8%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 2%  
24 0.9% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 11% 100%  
3 5% 89%  
4 6% 84%  
5 2% 78%  
6 58% 76% Median
7 14% 18%  
8 1.1% 4%  
9 0.3% 3%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 1.0%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9% Last Result
2 25% 97%  
3 40% 73% Median
4 16% 33%  
5 4% 16%  
6 12% 12%  
7 0.1% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 76% 92% Median
2 14% 16%  
3 0.4% 1.3%  
4 0.3% 1.0%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 16%  
2 14% 15%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 10%  
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 9%  
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 140 100% 129–145 127–147 125–149 121–153
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 123 84% 113–130 110–131 108–134 105–137
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 119 74% 109–128 106–128 106–129 100–133
Partido Socialista 86 102 0.6% 92–111 89–111 89–113 86–116
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 85 0% 80–97 78–99 76–99 73–103

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.3% 99.7%  
122 0.3% 99.4% Last Result
123 0.3% 99.1%  
124 0.9% 98.9%  
125 2% 98%  
126 0.5% 96%  
127 5% 96%  
128 0.9% 91%  
129 1.5% 90%  
130 1.1% 89%  
131 0.8% 88%  
132 3% 87%  
133 2% 84%  
134 3% 83%  
135 3% 80%  
136 6% 77%  
137 3% 71%  
138 5% 68%  
139 6% 63% Median
140 18% 57%  
141 1.2% 39%  
142 10% 38%  
143 5% 28%  
144 4% 23%  
145 9% 19%  
146 3% 9%  
147 2% 7%  
148 2% 5%  
149 2% 3%  
150 0.5% 2%  
151 0.4% 1.0%  
152 0.1% 0.7%  
153 0.2% 0.6%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
106 0.1% 99.5%  
107 0.4% 99.3%  
108 2% 98.9%  
109 0.5% 97%  
110 4% 97%  
111 0.7% 93%  
112 1.1% 92%  
113 2% 91%  
114 2% 89%  
115 3% 87%  
116 2% 84% Majority
117 2% 83%  
118 2% 81%  
119 5% 79%  
120 4% 74%  
121 2% 70%  
122 5% 68% Median
123 19% 63%  
124 7% 43%  
125 2% 37%  
126 6% 35%  
127 2% 28%  
128 13% 26%  
129 1.4% 13%  
130 4% 12%  
131 3% 8%  
132 1.2% 4%  
133 0.6% 3%  
134 0.6% 3%  
135 1.1% 2%  
136 0.2% 0.9%  
137 0.3% 0.8%  
138 0.2% 0.5%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.5% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.3%  
102 0.1% 99.2%  
103 0.3% 99.0% Last Result
104 0.6% 98.7%  
105 0.6% 98%  
106 4% 98%  
107 3% 94%  
108 0.7% 91%  
109 0.8% 91%  
110 0.7% 90%  
111 3% 89%  
112 2% 86%  
113 2% 84%  
114 5% 82%  
115 2% 77%  
116 4% 74% Majority
117 15% 71%  
118 4% 56%  
119 9% 52% Median
120 4% 43%  
121 2% 39%  
122 8% 37%  
123 6% 29%  
124 2% 23%  
125 4% 21%  
126 4% 17%  
127 2% 13%  
128 9% 11%  
129 0.8% 3%  
130 0.3% 2%  
131 0.3% 1.4%  
132 0.6% 1.1%  
133 0.1% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.2% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
87 0.3% 99.4%  
88 0.8% 99.1%  
89 4% 98%  
90 3% 94%  
91 0.7% 92%  
92 2% 91%  
93 0.5% 89%  
94 1.2% 89%  
95 1.3% 88%  
96 3% 86%  
97 1.5% 83%  
98 3% 82%  
99 4% 79%  
100 16% 75%  
101 6% 59%  
102 4% 53% Median
103 2% 49%  
104 3% 47%  
105 13% 44%  
106 7% 31%  
107 1.4% 25%  
108 5% 23%  
109 3% 18%  
110 1.0% 15%  
111 10% 14%  
112 1.0% 5%  
113 2% 4%  
114 0.5% 2%  
115 0.6% 1.2%  
116 0.2% 0.6% Majority
117 0.1% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.3%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.4% 99.5%  
74 0.2% 99.1%  
75 0.3% 98.9%  
76 2% 98.6%  
77 2% 97%  
78 0.9% 95%  
79 3% 94%  
80 6% 92%  
81 9% 86%  
82 4% 77%  
83 7% 73%  
84 9% 66%  
85 9% 57%  
86 15% 47% Median
87 4% 33%  
88 3% 29%  
89 2% 26%  
90 4% 24%  
91 4% 20%  
92 1.0% 16%  
93 3% 15%  
94 0.7% 12%  
95 0.9% 11%  
96 0.4% 11%  
97 0.6% 10%  
98 3% 9%  
99 5% 6%  
100 0.5% 2%  
101 0.3% 1.0%  
102 0.1% 0.8%  
103 0.2% 0.7%  
104 0.3% 0.5%  
105 0.2% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations