Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 28 September–1 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.3% 34.9–39.9% 34.2–40.6% 33.5–41.3% 32.4–42.5%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 28.5% 26.2–31.0% 25.6–31.6% 25.0–32.3% 24.0–33.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.8% 7.5–10.5% 7.1–11.0% 6.8–11.4% 6.2–12.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.3% 6.1–8.9% 5.8–9.3% 5.5–9.7% 5.0–10.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 4.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.6% 2.7–5.9% 2.3–6.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.4% 2.6–5.7% 2.2–6.3%
Chega 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
Aliança 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
LIVRE 0.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1% 0.1–1.2% 0.0–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 109 102–111 100–112 97–115 91–118
Partido Social Democrata 89 82 76–85 73–88 73–92 67–95
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 15–21 13–24 12–24 10–26
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 12 10–18 9–20 8–20 6–22
CDS–Partido Popular 18 6 3–6 2–7 2–7 2–10
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 4 3–6 3–6 2–8 2–9
Chega 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Aliança 0 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2
LIVRE 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 99.9% Last Result
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.6%  
92 0.2% 99.3%  
93 0.2% 99.1%  
94 0.2% 98.9%  
95 0.5% 98.6%  
96 0.4% 98%  
97 0.2% 98%  
98 0.5% 97%  
99 2% 97%  
100 1.0% 95%  
101 2% 94%  
102 7% 92%  
103 3% 86%  
104 4% 83%  
105 2% 79%  
106 0.8% 77%  
107 6% 76%  
108 5% 70%  
109 27% 65% Median
110 6% 38%  
111 26% 32%  
112 1.0% 6%  
113 0.4% 5%  
114 1.4% 4%  
115 0.6% 3%  
116 1.2% 2% Majority
117 0.5% 1.0%  
118 0.1% 0.6%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 0.3% 99.3%  
69 0.1% 99.0%  
70 0.1% 98.8%  
71 0.6% 98.7%  
72 0.2% 98%  
73 3% 98%  
74 2% 95%  
75 2% 93%  
76 5% 91%  
77 10% 86%  
78 5% 76%  
79 10% 72%  
80 6% 62%  
81 2% 56%  
82 19% 54% Median
83 4% 35%  
84 4% 31%  
85 18% 27%  
86 2% 9%  
87 1.3% 7%  
88 1.4% 5%  
89 0.5% 4% Last Result
90 0.3% 4%  
91 0.5% 3%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.3% 1.2%  
94 0.3% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 1.1% 99.1%  
12 0.6% 98%  
13 4% 97%  
14 0.9% 94%  
15 22% 93%  
16 3% 71%  
17 24% 68% Median
18 21% 44%  
19 5% 23% Last Result
20 5% 17%  
21 2% 12%  
22 0.8% 10%  
23 4% 9%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.6%  
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.6% 99.9%  
7 0.3% 99.3%  
8 4% 99.0%  
9 5% 95%  
10 19% 90%  
11 3% 72%  
12 21% 69% Median
13 14% 47%  
14 5% 33%  
15 0.4% 28%  
16 6% 28%  
17 10% 22% Last Result
18 5% 12%  
19 2% 7%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.3% 1.1%  
22 0.5% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 10% 100%  
3 2% 90%  
4 31% 88%  
5 2% 56%  
6 47% 54% Median
7 5% 7%  
8 0.9% 2%  
9 0.2% 1.1%  
10 0.6% 0.9%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 3% 100%  
3 27% 97%  
4 22% 70% Median
5 3% 48%  
6 41% 46%  
7 0.7% 5%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.9% 1.2%  
10 0.1% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 17%  
2 17% 17%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 5%  
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 27% 28%  
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 138 100% 134–144 132–145 128–147 123–153
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 126 98% 120–129 118–131 116–133 109–137
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 121 91% 116–126 112–129 111–129 105–133
Partido Socialista 86 109 2% 102–111 100–112 97–115 91–118
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 86 0% 81–91 79–93 77–94 72–100

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.8%  
122 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.3% 99.4%  
125 0.2% 99.2%  
126 0.3% 99.0%  
127 0.3% 98.7%  
128 2% 98%  
129 0.4% 97%  
130 0.2% 96%  
131 1.0% 96%  
132 0.3% 95%  
133 1.3% 95%  
134 4% 93%  
135 3% 90%  
136 20% 87%  
137 4% 67%  
138 24% 63% Median
139 4% 40%  
140 8% 35%  
141 4% 27%  
142 9% 23%  
143 2% 14%  
144 6% 12%  
145 0.9% 6%  
146 2% 5%  
147 1.4% 3%  
148 0.1% 1.5%  
149 0.1% 1.3%  
150 0.3% 1.2%  
151 0.4% 1.0%  
152 0.1% 0.6%  
153 0.3% 0.5%  
154 0% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9% Last Result
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.1% 99.5%  
110 0.2% 99.4%  
111 0.2% 99.2%  
112 0.3% 99.0%  
113 0.2% 98.7%  
114 0.5% 98%  
115 0.4% 98%  
116 2% 98% Majority
117 0.2% 96%  
118 2% 96%  
119 2% 93%  
120 6% 92%  
121 2% 85%  
122 2% 84%  
123 3% 82%  
124 22% 79%  
125 7% 57%  
126 3% 51% Median
127 7% 48%  
128 24% 41%  
129 8% 17%  
130 3% 9%  
131 2% 6%  
132 1.2% 4%  
133 1.1% 3%  
134 0.3% 2%  
135 0.4% 1.3%  
136 0.1% 0.9%  
137 0.4% 0.8%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
104 0.1% 99.7%  
105 0.4% 99.6%  
106 0.1% 99.2%  
107 0.1% 99.1%  
108 0.3% 99.0%  
109 0.1% 98.7%  
110 0.1% 98.6%  
111 2% 98%  
112 2% 96%  
113 0.7% 95%  
114 0.9% 94%  
115 2% 93%  
116 4% 91% Majority
117 1.2% 88%  
118 0.9% 87%  
119 7% 86%  
120 6% 79%  
121 40% 72% Median
122 10% 33%  
123 4% 23%  
124 5% 19%  
125 1.2% 14%  
126 4% 13%  
127 0.9% 9%  
128 2% 8%  
129 4% 6%  
130 0.7% 2%  
131 0.5% 2%  
132 0.4% 1.0%  
133 0.2% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 99.9% Last Result
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.6%  
92 0.2% 99.3%  
93 0.2% 99.1%  
94 0.2% 98.9%  
95 0.5% 98.6%  
96 0.4% 98%  
97 0.2% 98%  
98 0.5% 97%  
99 2% 97%  
100 1.0% 95%  
101 2% 94%  
102 7% 92%  
103 3% 86%  
104 4% 83%  
105 2% 79%  
106 0.8% 77%  
107 6% 76%  
108 5% 70%  
109 27% 65% Median
110 6% 38%  
111 26% 32%  
112 1.0% 6%  
113 0.4% 5%  
114 1.4% 4%  
115 0.6% 3%  
116 1.2% 2% Majority
117 0.5% 1.0%  
118 0.1% 0.6%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.5% 99.5%  
74 0.2% 99.0%  
75 0.1% 98.7%  
76 0.4% 98.6%  
77 0.7% 98%  
78 1.0% 97%  
79 2% 96%  
80 4% 95%  
81 5% 90%  
82 6% 86%  
83 7% 80%  
84 8% 73%  
85 8% 66%  
86 23% 58%  
87 2% 34%  
88 0.9% 32% Median
89 4% 31%  
90 2% 27%  
91 18% 25%  
92 1.1% 7%  
93 1.5% 5%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.3% 2%  
96 0.2% 2%  
97 0.4% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.3%  
99 0.2% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations