Opinion Poll by Aximage for Jornal Económico, 26 September–2 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 36.5% | 35.2–37.8% | 34.8–38.2% | 34.5–38.5% | 33.9–39.2% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 26.8% | 25.6–28.1% | 25.3–28.4% | 25.0–28.7% | 24.4–29.3% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.9–11.6% | 9.6–11.8% | 9.4–12.1% | 9.1–12.5% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.3–8.1% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 4.9% | 4.3–5.5% | 4.2–5.7% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.8–6.2% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1.4% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.2–4.5% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.8–5.0% |
| LIVRE | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% |
| Chega | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 106 | 102–110 | 102–111 | 101–112 | 99–114 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 76 | 73–80 | 72–81 | 72–82 | 68–83 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 24 | 21–25 | 19–25 | 19–25 | 18–27 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 8–17 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 4–10 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| LIVRE | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Chega | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 3% | 98% | |
| 102 | 8% | 95% | |
| 103 | 4% | 87% | |
| 104 | 9% | 83% | |
| 105 | 11% | 74% | |
| 106 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 107 | 14% | 48% | |
| 108 | 9% | 34% | |
| 109 | 13% | 25% | |
| 110 | 3% | 11% | |
| 111 | 5% | 8% | |
| 112 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 72 | 5% | 98% | |
| 73 | 17% | 92% | |
| 74 | 10% | 76% | |
| 75 | 9% | 66% | |
| 76 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 77 | 15% | 48% | |
| 78 | 10% | 32% | |
| 79 | 10% | 22% | |
| 80 | 4% | 12% | |
| 81 | 4% | 7% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 20 | 4% | 95% | |
| 21 | 7% | 90% | |
| 22 | 6% | 84% | |
| 23 | 17% | 78% | |
| 24 | 51% | 61% | Median |
| 25 | 8% | 10% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 10% | 97% | |
| 10 | 9% | 87% | |
| 11 | 11% | 78% | |
| 12 | 10% | 67% | |
| 13 | 34% | 56% | Median |
| 14 | 18% | 22% | |
| 15 | 2% | 4% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 65% | 98.8% | Median |
| 7 | 30% | 34% | |
| 8 | 2% | 4% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 39% | 97% | |
| 5 | 19% | 58% | Median |
| 6 | 38% | 39% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
LIVRE
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 90% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Chega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Iniciativa Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 142 | 100% | 138–145 | 136–146 | 136–146 | 134–149 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 130 | 100% | 125–133 | 125–134 | 125–135 | 122–137 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 119 | 84% | 115–122 | 113–123 | 112–125 | 110–127 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 106 | 0.1% | 102–110 | 102–111 | 101–112 | 99–114 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 83 | 0% | 79–86 | 79–87 | 78–88 | 75–90 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 136 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 137 | 2% | 94% | |
| 138 | 4% | 91% | |
| 139 | 9% | 87% | |
| 140 | 17% | 79% | |
| 141 | 10% | 62% | |
| 142 | 10% | 52% | |
| 143 | 13% | 42% | Median |
| 144 | 9% | 29% | |
| 145 | 14% | 20% | |
| 146 | 4% | 6% | |
| 147 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 122 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 125 | 9% | 98% | |
| 126 | 4% | 89% | |
| 127 | 11% | 85% | |
| 128 | 10% | 74% | |
| 129 | 14% | 64% | |
| 130 | 14% | 50% | Median |
| 131 | 8% | 37% | |
| 132 | 11% | 29% | |
| 133 | 12% | 17% | |
| 134 | 2% | 6% | |
| 135 | 2% | 3% | |
| 136 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 112 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 113 | 4% | 96% | |
| 114 | 2% | 93% | |
| 115 | 7% | 91% | |
| 116 | 11% | 84% | Majority |
| 117 | 11% | 73% | |
| 118 | 11% | 63% | |
| 119 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 120 | 14% | 41% | |
| 121 | 16% | 26% | |
| 122 | 3% | 10% | |
| 123 | 2% | 7% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 125 | 2% | 3% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 3% | 98% | |
| 102 | 8% | 95% | |
| 103 | 4% | 87% | |
| 104 | 9% | 83% | |
| 105 | 11% | 74% | |
| 106 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 107 | 14% | 48% | |
| 108 | 9% | 34% | |
| 109 | 13% | 25% | |
| 110 | 3% | 11% | |
| 111 | 5% | 8% | |
| 112 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 79 | 12% | 97% | |
| 80 | 15% | 85% | |
| 81 | 8% | 70% | |
| 82 | 11% | 62% | Median |
| 83 | 17% | 51% | |
| 84 | 9% | 34% | |
| 85 | 12% | 24% | |
| 86 | 3% | 13% | |
| 87 | 5% | 10% | |
| 88 | 3% | 4% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Aximage
- Commissioner(s): Jornal Económico
- Fieldwork period: 26 September–2 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2171
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.47%