Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 29 September–2 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.3% 34.9–39.9% 34.2–40.6% 33.5–41.3% 32.4–42.5%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 28.8% 26.6–31.3% 25.9–32.0% 25.3–32.6% 24.3–33.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.2% 7.8–10.9% 7.4–11.3% 7.1–11.8% 6.5–12.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.7% 5.5–8.2% 5.2–8.6% 4.9–9.0% 4.4–9.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 4.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–6.0% 3.0–6.3% 2.6–6.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 3.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.4% 2.6–5.7% 2.2–6.3%
Aliança 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
Chega 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
LIVRE 0.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 106 100–113 93–115 93–117 90–120
Partido Social Democrata 89 81 75–88 73–92 71–93 68–98
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 16–23 14–24 12–24 10–27
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 13 8–17 7–17 6–18 5–20
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 6 4–8 4–9 3–9 2–12
CDS–Partido Popular 18 5 2–6 2–7 2–7 2–10
Aliança 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Chega 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
LIVRE 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0 0 0 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 0.5% 99.4%  
92 0.8% 98.9%  
93 3% 98%  
94 0.7% 95%  
95 0.2% 94%  
96 0.4% 94%  
97 1.0% 93%  
98 0.9% 92%  
99 1.0% 91%  
100 2% 91%  
101 6% 89%  
102 10% 83%  
103 3% 73%  
104 2% 71%  
105 4% 68%  
106 16% 65% Median
107 8% 49%  
108 8% 41%  
109 7% 32%  
110 4% 25%  
111 4% 21%  
112 6% 18%  
113 2% 11%  
114 2% 9%  
115 3% 7%  
116 1.2% 4% Majority
117 1.5% 3%  
118 0.6% 1.2%  
119 0.1% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.5%  
121 0.1% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.2% 99.5%  
69 0.3% 99.3%  
70 0.8% 99.0%  
71 2% 98%  
72 0.8% 96%  
73 1.3% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 2% 92%  
76 6% 90%  
77 8% 84%  
78 7% 76%  
79 11% 69%  
80 7% 58%  
81 11% 51% Median
82 12% 39%  
83 3% 27%  
84 3% 24%  
85 2% 22%  
86 1.1% 19%  
87 5% 18%  
88 6% 13%  
89 0.3% 7% Last Result
90 0.8% 7%  
91 0.3% 6%  
92 3% 6%  
93 1.0% 3%  
94 0.5% 2%  
95 0.3% 1.5%  
96 0.2% 1.1%  
97 0.4% 1.0%  
98 0.1% 0.6%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 0.4% 99.2%  
12 1.4% 98.8%  
13 0.8% 97%  
14 3% 97%  
15 2% 93%  
16 3% 92%  
17 25% 89%  
18 23% 64% Median
19 6% 41% Last Result
20 13% 35%  
21 8% 23%  
22 3% 15%  
23 4% 12%  
24 7% 8%  
25 0.2% 1.0%  
26 0.3% 0.8%  
27 0.3% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 3% 99.1%  
7 5% 96%  
8 5% 91%  
9 7% 86%  
10 10% 79%  
11 5% 69%  
12 10% 64%  
13 24% 55% Median
14 10% 31%  
15 2% 21%  
16 1.3% 19%  
17 14% 18% Last Result
18 3% 4%  
19 0.9% 2%  
20 0.9% 1.0%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.7% 100%  
3 3% 99.3%  
4 15% 96%  
5 4% 81%  
6 63% 78% Median
7 4% 15%  
8 4% 11%  
9 5% 7%  
10 0.6% 2%  
11 1.2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.7%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 21% 99.9%  
3 4% 79%  
4 12% 74%  
5 15% 62% Median
6 41% 47%  
7 4% 5%  
8 0.5% 1.2%  
9 0.2% 0.7%  
10 0.3% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 18%  
2 17% 17%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 16%  
2 13% 14%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 48%  
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 2%  
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 137 99.8% 129–142 125–146 122–149 120–151
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 126 93% 118–132 113–133 112–136 108–138
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 119 78% 111–124 105–128 103–129 101–132
Partido Socialista 86 106 4% 100–113 93–115 93–117 90–120
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 85 0% 80–93 77–96 74–97 72–103

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.8% Majority
117 0% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0.1% 99.6%  
120 0.2% 99.5%  
121 0.4% 99.4%  
122 3% 98.9% Last Result
123 0.3% 96%  
124 0.4% 96%  
125 0.6% 96%  
126 0.6% 95%  
127 0.8% 94%  
128 1.4% 93%  
129 2% 92%  
130 0.3% 90%  
131 2% 90%  
132 3% 87%  
133 1.3% 84%  
134 5% 83%  
135 4% 78%  
136 14% 74%  
137 13% 60% Median
138 4% 48%  
139 9% 43%  
140 5% 34%  
141 8% 28%  
142 10% 20%  
143 3% 10%  
144 1.0% 7%  
145 0.7% 6%  
146 1.2% 5%  
147 0.7% 4%  
148 0.3% 3%  
149 0.6% 3%  
150 1.0% 2%  
151 1.0% 1.3%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.1% 100% Last Result
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.3% 99.8%  
108 0.3% 99.5%  
109 0.2% 99.2%  
110 0.2% 99.0%  
111 0.2% 98.8%  
112 3% 98.6%  
113 0.8% 96%  
114 0.8% 95%  
115 0.6% 94%  
116 2% 93% Majority
117 1.1% 92%  
118 0.8% 90%  
119 6% 90%  
120 9% 84%  
121 1.0% 76%  
122 4% 75%  
123 10% 71%  
124 7% 60% Median
125 3% 53%  
126 11% 50%  
127 6% 39%  
128 7% 33%  
129 8% 26%  
130 1.4% 18%  
131 2% 16%  
132 8% 14%  
133 2% 6%  
134 2% 5%  
135 0.4% 3%  
136 0.7% 3%  
137 0.3% 2%  
138 2% 2%  
139 0.1% 0.4%  
140 0% 0.3%  
141 0% 0.3%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.6%  
101 0.4% 99.5%  
102 0.2% 99.1%  
103 2% 98.9% Last Result
104 0.7% 96%  
105 0.8% 96%  
106 0.4% 95%  
107 0.4% 95%  
108 0.6% 94%  
109 1.3% 93%  
110 0.8% 92%  
111 2% 91%  
112 1.3% 90%  
113 3% 88%  
114 5% 85%  
115 3% 80%  
116 5% 78% Majority
117 4% 72%  
118 4% 68%  
119 20% 64% Median
120 9% 44%  
121 6% 35%  
122 14% 29%  
123 2% 15%  
124 3% 13%  
125 2% 10%  
126 0.9% 8%  
127 2% 7%  
128 1.1% 5%  
129 2% 4%  
130 0.3% 2%  
131 1.3% 2%  
132 0.3% 0.8%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 0.5% 99.4%  
92 0.8% 98.9%  
93 3% 98%  
94 0.7% 95%  
95 0.2% 94%  
96 0.4% 94%  
97 1.0% 93%  
98 0.9% 92%  
99 1.0% 91%  
100 2% 91%  
101 6% 89%  
102 10% 83%  
103 3% 73%  
104 2% 71%  
105 4% 68%  
106 16% 65% Median
107 8% 49%  
108 8% 41%  
109 7% 32%  
110 4% 25%  
111 4% 21%  
112 6% 18%  
113 2% 11%  
114 2% 9%  
115 3% 7%  
116 1.2% 4% Majority
117 1.5% 3%  
118 0.6% 1.2%  
119 0.1% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.5%  
121 0.1% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.6%  
73 2% 99.4%  
74 0.5% 98%  
75 0.4% 97%  
76 0.8% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 1.1% 94%  
79 2% 93%  
80 4% 91%  
81 3% 88%  
82 6% 85%  
83 10% 78%  
84 11% 68%  
85 10% 57%  
86 3% 48% Median
87 20% 45%  
88 3% 25%  
89 4% 22%  
90 4% 18%  
91 1.2% 13%  
92 1.0% 12%  
93 3% 11%  
94 2% 8%  
95 1.0% 7%  
96 0.9% 6%  
97 3% 5%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.5% 2%  
100 0.2% 1.2%  
101 0.2% 1.1%  
102 0.1% 0.8%  
103 0.3% 0.7%  
104 0.1% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.2% Last Result
108 0% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations