Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 30 September–3 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.2% 34.7–39.8% 34.0–40.5% 33.4–41.1% 32.2–42.4%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 27.7% 25.4–30.1% 24.8–30.8% 24.2–31.4% 23.2–32.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.2% 7.8–10.9% 7.4–11.3% 7.1–11.8% 6.5–12.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.7% 5.5–8.2% 5.2–8.6% 4.9–9.0% 4.4–9.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 4.8% 3.9–6.2% 3.6–6.5% 3.4–6.9% 3.0–7.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 4.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.3% 3.2–6.7% 2.9–7.3%
Chega 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.8% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.3% 0.8–3.8%
Aliança 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
LIVRE 0.7% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 107 98–115 96–115 92–118 89–123
Partido Social Democrata 89 77 68–87 67–91 65–93 62–96
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 15–24 14–25 12–25 10–28
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 12 8–17 7–17 6–18 5–20
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 6 4–10 4–12 4–13 3–15
CDS–Partido Popular 18 6 4–10 3–10 2–12 2–14
Chega 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
Aliança 0 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2
LIVRE 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Iniciativa Liberal 0 0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100% Last Result
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.7%  
90 0.5% 99.4%  
91 0.5% 99.0%  
92 1.1% 98%  
93 0.6% 97%  
94 0.3% 97%  
95 1.1% 96%  
96 2% 95%  
97 1.0% 94%  
98 4% 93%  
99 2% 89%  
100 7% 86%  
101 4% 80%  
102 3% 75%  
103 2% 72%  
104 3% 70%  
105 7% 67%  
106 4% 60%  
107 8% 57% Median
108 7% 49%  
109 8% 42%  
110 7% 34%  
111 6% 27%  
112 4% 21%  
113 3% 17%  
114 4% 14%  
115 6% 10%  
116 0.9% 5% Majority
117 1.1% 4%  
118 0.7% 3%  
119 0.5% 2%  
120 0.2% 1.5%  
121 0% 1.3%  
122 0.3% 1.2%  
123 0.6% 1.0%  
124 0% 0.4%  
125 0.3% 0.4%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.6%  
63 0.3% 99.4%  
64 0.5% 99.0%  
65 1.1% 98.5%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 4% 93%  
69 2% 89%  
70 5% 87%  
71 0.7% 81%  
72 4% 81%  
73 7% 77%  
74 8% 70%  
75 3% 62%  
76 4% 59%  
77 5% 55% Median
78 8% 50%  
79 7% 42%  
80 3% 35%  
81 2% 32%  
82 2% 30%  
83 2% 27%  
84 5% 26%  
85 6% 21%  
86 2% 15%  
87 5% 14%  
88 0.9% 8%  
89 0.4% 7% Last Result
90 0.3% 7%  
91 3% 7%  
92 0.5% 3%  
93 0.8% 3%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.5% 1.1%  
96 0.3% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.8%  
11 0.7% 98.7%  
12 1.1% 98%  
13 0.5% 97%  
14 3% 96%  
15 6% 93%  
16 3% 87%  
17 16% 85%  
18 24% 68% Median
19 7% 44% Last Result
20 5% 37%  
21 5% 32%  
22 4% 27%  
23 8% 23%  
24 10% 15%  
25 3% 5%  
26 0.7% 2%  
27 0.5% 1.3%  
28 0.7% 0.9%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 2% 99.0%  
7 3% 97%  
8 15% 94%  
9 14% 79%  
10 7% 66%  
11 8% 59%  
12 7% 51% Median
13 8% 44%  
14 21% 36%  
15 2% 15%  
16 2% 13%  
17 6% 11% Last Result
18 3% 5%  
19 0.8% 2%  
20 0.8% 1.0%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 1.2% 99.9%  
4 10% 98.7%  
5 1.0% 88%  
6 43% 87% Median
7 15% 44%  
8 11% 29%  
9 8% 18%  
10 2% 10%  
11 2% 8%  
12 2% 5%  
13 2% 4%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.6%  
16 0.2% 0.5%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 2% 96%  
4 21% 94%  
5 1.2% 73%  
6 32% 72% Median
7 22% 40%  
8 3% 19%  
9 3% 16%  
10 9% 13%  
11 1.5% 4%  
12 1.3% 3%  
13 1.1% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.3%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 45%  
2 36% 38%  
3 0.8% 2%  
4 1.1% 1.4%  
5 0.1% 0.3%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 8%  
2 6% 7%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Last Result, Median
1 43% 44%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 6%  
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 138 99.9% 129–146 124–149 122–150 118–154
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 126 89% 115–135 113–136 110–139 106–142
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 119 69% 110–127 107–129 104–130 100–134
Partido Socialista 86 107 5% 98–115 96–115 92–118 89–123
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 83 0% 76–92 75–97 73–99 68–101

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.3% 99.7%  
119 0.4% 99.4%  
120 0.5% 99.0%  
121 0.4% 98.6%  
122 1.2% 98% Last Result
123 0.8% 97%  
124 3% 96%  
125 1.1% 93%  
126 0.9% 92%  
127 0.4% 91%  
128 0.4% 91%  
129 6% 90%  
130 3% 84%  
131 2% 81%  
132 3% 79%  
133 2% 75%  
134 11% 73%  
135 3% 62%  
136 3% 59%  
137 5% 57% Median
138 5% 52%  
139 3% 46%  
140 8% 43%  
141 2% 35%  
142 8% 34%  
143 5% 25%  
144 1.4% 20%  
145 4% 19%  
146 7% 15%  
147 1.2% 8%  
148 0.6% 7%  
149 3% 6%  
150 0.9% 3%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.7% 2%  
153 0.6% 1.2%  
154 0.1% 0.6%  
155 0.2% 0.5%  
156 0% 0.3%  
157 0.2% 0.2%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
106 0.3% 99.7%  
107 0.3% 99.4%  
108 0.7% 99.0%  
109 0.5% 98%  
110 0.4% 98%  
111 0.2% 97%  
112 0.7% 97%  
113 2% 97%  
114 2% 95%  
115 4% 93%  
116 1.1% 89% Majority
117 1.2% 88%  
118 8% 87%  
119 2% 79%  
120 2% 77%  
121 1.4% 76%  
122 4% 74%  
123 3% 70%  
124 6% 67%  
125 8% 60% Median
126 8% 53%  
127 5% 45%  
128 4% 40%  
129 6% 36%  
130 3% 30%  
131 3% 28%  
132 7% 25%  
133 2% 18%  
134 6% 17%  
135 5% 11%  
136 1.5% 6%  
137 1.0% 5%  
138 0.6% 4%  
139 1.2% 3%  
140 0.4% 2%  
141 0.7% 2%  
142 0.4% 0.9%  
143 0.2% 0.4%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.1% 99.6%  
101 0.1% 99.5%  
102 0.4% 99.4%  
103 0.5% 99.0% Last Result
104 2% 98.5%  
105 0.4% 97%  
106 0.6% 96%  
107 3% 96%  
108 1.4% 93%  
109 0.9% 92%  
110 2% 91%  
111 6% 88%  
112 2% 83%  
113 7% 81%  
114 2% 74%  
115 3% 73%  
116 8% 69% Majority
117 5% 61%  
118 6% 56%  
119 10% 51% Median
120 4% 41%  
121 4% 37%  
122 6% 32%  
123 3% 27%  
124 7% 23%  
125 3% 16%  
126 2% 13%  
127 2% 11%  
128 1.3% 9%  
129 5% 8%  
130 0.7% 3%  
131 0.3% 2%  
132 0.4% 2%  
133 0.3% 1.4%  
134 0.7% 1.1%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100% Last Result
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.7%  
90 0.5% 99.4%  
91 0.5% 99.0%  
92 1.1% 98%  
93 0.6% 97%  
94 0.3% 97%  
95 1.1% 96%  
96 2% 95%  
97 1.0% 94%  
98 4% 93%  
99 2% 89%  
100 7% 86%  
101 4% 80%  
102 3% 75%  
103 2% 72%  
104 3% 70%  
105 7% 67%  
106 4% 60%  
107 8% 57% Median
108 7% 49%  
109 8% 42%  
110 7% 34%  
111 6% 27%  
112 4% 21%  
113 3% 17%  
114 4% 14%  
115 6% 10%  
116 0.9% 5% Majority
117 1.1% 4%  
118 0.7% 3%  
119 0.5% 2%  
120 0.2% 1.5%  
121 0% 1.3%  
122 0.3% 1.2%  
123 0.6% 1.0%  
124 0% 0.4%  
125 0.3% 0.4%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.4%  
70 0.2% 99.0%  
71 0.3% 98.8%  
72 0.8% 98%  
73 0.6% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 5% 96%  
76 2% 90%  
77 6% 88%  
78 3% 82%  
79 5% 79%  
80 8% 74%  
81 2% 66%  
82 4% 64%  
83 11% 60% Median
84 7% 50%  
85 5% 42%  
86 4% 37%  
87 3% 33%  
88 3% 30%  
89 6% 28%  
90 4% 21%  
91 6% 17%  
92 2% 12%  
93 0.5% 9%  
94 1.4% 9%  
95 0.7% 7%  
96 0.4% 7%  
97 3% 6%  
98 0.4% 4%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.7% 2%  
101 0.5% 0.9%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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