Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 1–5 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.3% 35.4–39.3% 34.8–39.8% 34.4–40.3% 33.4–41.3%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 27.4% 25.7–29.3% 25.2–29.8% 24.7–30.2% 23.9–31.1%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.5–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Chega 1.3% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 109 104–116 103–119 103–119 98–124
Partido Social Democrata 79 78 76–83 70–84 69–89 68–90
Bloco de Esquerda 19 19 16–21 15–23 15–23 12–24
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 12 9–15 8–16 7–16 7–17
Chega 1 3 2–4 2–4 2–6 1–8
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 1–4 1–4 1–5 1–5
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–4 2–4 2–5 1–6
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–3 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.7% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.0%  
100 0.3% 98.8%  
101 0.4% 98.5%  
102 0.5% 98%  
103 4% 98%  
104 4% 94%  
105 3% 89%  
106 10% 86%  
107 6% 77%  
108 12% 71% Last Result
109 16% 59% Median
110 8% 43%  
111 5% 35%  
112 5% 30%  
113 8% 25%  
114 2% 16%  
115 2% 14%  
116 5% 12% Majority
117 0.8% 8%  
118 1.4% 7%  
119 3% 6%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.6% 2%  
122 0.2% 1.3%  
123 0.1% 1.1%  
124 0.9% 1.1%  
125 0% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.8%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.6%  
68 1.3% 99.5%  
69 0.7% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 1.2% 94%  
72 0.6% 93%  
73 0.2% 92%  
74 0.4% 92%  
75 1.3% 91%  
76 12% 90%  
77 18% 78%  
78 14% 60% Median
79 2% 46% Last Result
80 0.9% 44%  
81 12% 43%  
82 5% 32%  
83 18% 27%  
84 4% 9%  
85 0.5% 5%  
86 0.1% 4%  
87 0.7% 4%  
88 0.5% 4%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.9% 1.1%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 0.2% 99.7%  
13 0.2% 99.5%  
14 0.8% 99.2%  
15 5% 98%  
16 16% 93%  
17 4% 77%  
18 10% 74%  
19 42% 63% Last Result, Median
20 10% 22%  
21 3% 12%  
22 2% 9%  
23 6% 7%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 5% 99.8%  
8 5% 95%  
9 12% 90%  
10 13% 78%  
11 13% 65%  
12 7% 52% Last Result, Median
13 3% 46%  
14 23% 43%  
15 11% 19%  
16 6% 8%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 10% 98%  
3 49% 88% Median
4 36% 39%  
5 0.6% 3%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.5% 1.1%  
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 18% 99.7%  
2 60% 82% Median
3 2% 22%  
4 17% 20%  
5 3% 3% Last Result
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.2% 100%  
2 33% 98.8%  
3 25% 66% Median
4 39% 41% Last Result
5 0.6% 3%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 79% 84% Last Result, Median
2 1.1% 5%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 140 100% 136–146 133–150 132–151 130–153
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 99.6% 122–134 121–136 120–137 116–142
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 121 95% 118–130 116–132 115–134 112–135
Partido Socialista 108 109 12% 104–116 103–119 103–119 98–124
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 81 0% 77–87 72–88 72–91 70–92

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.2% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.7%  
130 0.7% 99.6%  
131 0.9% 98.9%  
132 3% 98%  
133 1.0% 95%  
134 3% 94%  
135 2% 92%  
136 6% 90%  
137 11% 84%  
138 12% 73%  
139 4% 61% Last Result
140 7% 56% Median
141 20% 50%  
142 7% 29%  
143 1.5% 22%  
144 6% 21%  
145 0.8% 15%  
146 5% 14%  
147 3% 9%  
148 0.5% 7%  
149 1.3% 6%  
150 2% 5%  
151 1.4% 3%  
152 0.1% 2%  
153 1.4% 2%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.6% Majority
117 0.8% 99.5%  
118 0.4% 98.6%  
119 0.3% 98%  
120 0.8% 98%  
121 6% 97%  
122 2% 91%  
123 4% 89%  
124 2% 85%  
125 10% 83%  
126 4% 74%  
127 16% 70% Last Result
128 13% 54% Median
129 4% 40%  
130 1.5% 36%  
131 5% 34%  
132 14% 30%  
133 5% 16%  
134 4% 11%  
135 2% 8%  
136 3% 6%  
137 0.5% 3%  
138 0.5% 2%  
139 0.4% 2%  
140 0.3% 1.4%  
141 0% 1.1%  
142 1.0% 1.1%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.4% 99.8%  
113 1.1% 99.3%  
114 0.7% 98%  
115 2% 98%  
116 2% 95% Majority
117 2% 93%  
118 15% 91%  
119 12% 76%  
120 7% 64% Last Result
121 11% 57% Median
122 23% 47%  
123 6% 24%  
124 1.2% 18%  
125 0.8% 17%  
126 0.6% 16%  
127 0.4% 15%  
128 2% 15%  
129 1.4% 13%  
130 6% 12%  
131 0.3% 6%  
132 0.6% 6%  
133 0.3% 5%  
134 2% 5%  
135 2% 2%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.7% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.0%  
100 0.3% 98.8%  
101 0.4% 98.5%  
102 0.5% 98%  
103 4% 98%  
104 4% 94%  
105 3% 89%  
106 10% 86%  
107 6% 77%  
108 12% 71% Last Result
109 16% 59% Median
110 8% 43%  
111 5% 35%  
112 5% 30%  
113 8% 25%  
114 2% 16%  
115 2% 14%  
116 5% 12% Majority
117 0.8% 8%  
118 1.4% 7%  
119 3% 6%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.6% 2%  
122 0.2% 1.3%  
123 0.1% 1.1%  
124 0.9% 1.1%  
125 0% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.5%  
71 1.3% 99.0%  
72 3% 98%  
73 2% 95%  
74 0.6% 93%  
75 0.4% 92%  
76 0.6% 92%  
77 6% 91%  
78 5% 85%  
79 17% 80%  
80 11% 63% Median
81 3% 52%  
82 8% 49%  
83 10% 41%  
84 2% 31% Last Result
85 13% 30%  
86 5% 17%  
87 6% 11%  
88 2% 6%  
89 0.2% 4%  
90 0.6% 4%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.8% 1.0%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations