Partido Socialista
Voting Intentions
Last result: 36.4% (General Election of 6 October 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 35.4% | 33.0–37.6% | 32.3–38.3% | 31.7–39.0% | 30.6–40.3% |
| 24–28 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
36.6% | 34.4–38.9% | 33.8–39.5% | 33.2–40.1% | 32.2–41.2% |
| 23–26 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
36.7% | 34.2–39.2% | 33.5–40.0% | 32.9–40.6% | 31.8–41.8% |
| 19–26 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
36.0% | 34.7–37.3% | 34.3–37.7% | 34.0–38.0% | 33.4–38.7% |
| 22–25 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
36.7% | 34.2–39.2% | 33.5–40.0% | 32.9–40.6% | 31.8–41.8% |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
37.0% | 34.6–39.6% | 33.9–40.3% | 33.3–40.9% | 32.1–42.2% |
| 18–24 January 2022 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
35.0% | 33.1–37.0% | 32.6–37.5% | 32.1–38.0% | 31.2–39.0% |
| 20–23 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
35.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–22 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
34.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–21 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
33.4% | 31.0–35.9% | 30.3–36.6% | 29.8–37.2% | 28.6–38.5% |
| 16–21 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
33.8% | 31.9–35.8% | 31.3–36.3% | 30.9–36.8% | 30.0–37.8% |
| 17–20 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
34.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–19 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
36.5% | 34.1–39.1% | 33.4–39.8% | 32.8–40.4% | 31.6–41.7% |
| 15–18 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
38.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–18 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
37.0% | 35.4–38.7% | 35.0–39.1% | 34.6–39.5% | 33.8–40.3% |
| 14–17 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
39.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–16 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
40.1% | 37.6–42.7% | 36.9–43.5% | 36.3–44.1% | 35.1–45.3% |
| 12–15 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
39.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–14 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
38.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–13 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
39.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–12 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
38.0% | 35.9–40.3% | 35.3–40.9% | 34.8–41.5% | 33.7–42.5% |
| 4–10 January 2022 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
35.3% | 32.9–37.8% | 32.2–38.5% | 31.6–39.2% | 30.5–40.4% |
| 6–10 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
39.0% | 37.3–40.8% | 36.7–41.3% | 36.3–41.7% | 35.5–42.6% |
| 30 December 2021–9 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
39.7% | 37.1–42.3% | 36.4–43.0% | 35.8–43.7% | 34.6–44.9% |
| 28 December 2021–5 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
38.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–20 December 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
38.0% | 35.9–40.1% | 35.3–40.7% | 34.8–41.2% | 33.9–42.2% |
| 7–14 December 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
35.5% | 33.0–38.0% | 32.4–38.8% | 31.8–39.4% | 30.6–40.6% |
| 9–13 December 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
35.4% | 32.6–38.4% | 31.8–39.2% | 31.1–40.0% | 29.8–41.4% |
| 7–12 December 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
37.0% | 34.5–39.5% | 33.9–40.2% | 33.3–40.8% | 32.1–42.0% |
| 10–15 November 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
38.2% | 35.8–40.8% | 35.1–41.5% | 34.5–42.1% | 33.3–43.3% |
| 5–11 November 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
39.1% | 36.6–41.6% | 35.9–42.4% | 35.3–43.0% | 34.1–44.2% |
| 29 October–4 November 2021 | CESOP–UCP | 39.0% | 36.9–41.1% | 36.3–41.7% | 35.8–42.2% | 34.8–43.3% |
| 21 October–1 November 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
40.0% | 37.8–42.2% | 37.2–42.9% | 36.7–43.4% | 35.6–44.5% |
| 28–31 October 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
38.5% | 36.3–40.7% | 35.7–41.4% | 35.2–41.9% | 34.1–43.0% |
| 18–21 October 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
38.1% | 36.2–40.1% | 35.7–40.7% | 35.2–41.2% | 34.3–42.1% |
| 14–23 September 2021 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
36.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–23 September 2021 | Eurosondagem Sol |
41.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–19 September 2021 | Pitagórica TVI |
41.4% | 38.9–44.0% | 38.1–44.7% | 37.5–45.3% | 36.3–46.6% |
| 13–20 August 2021 | Intercampus | 34.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–19 August 2021 | Eurosondagem | 41.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–29 July 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
41.1% | 39.1–43.1% | 38.6–43.6% | 38.1–44.1% | 37.2–45.1% |
| 7–16 July 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
34.8% | 32.3–37.3% | 31.7–38.0% | 31.1–38.6% | 29.9–39.9% |
| 10–12 July 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
37.6% | 35.4–39.9% | 34.8–40.6% | 34.2–41.1% | 33.2–42.2% |
| 5–8 July 2021 | Eurosondagem | 40.8% | 38.9–42.8% | 38.3–43.4% | 37.8–43.9% | 36.9–44.8% |
| 8–16 June 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
34.5% | 32.1–37.1% | 31.4–37.8% | 30.9–38.4% | 29.7–39.6% |
| 31 May–3 June 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
40.0% | 38.0–42.0% | 37.5–42.5% | 37.0–43.0% | 36.1–44.0% |
| 26–30 May 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
38.9% | 36.8–41.2% | 36.1–41.8% | 35.6–42.4% | 34.6–43.5% |
| 10–13 May 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
39.4% | 37.4–41.4% | 36.9–42.0% | 36.4–42.4% | 35.5–43.4% |
| 5–11 May 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
38.0% | 35.5–40.5% | 34.8–41.3% | 34.2–41.9% | 33.0–43.1% |
| 3–7 May 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
38.0% | 36.2–39.9% | 35.7–40.5% | 35.2–40.9% | 34.4–41.8% |
| 22–25 April 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
38.2% | 36.1–40.4% | 35.5–41.0% | 34.9–41.5% | 33.9–42.6% |
| 7–13 April 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
36.1% | 33.7–38.7% | 33.0–39.4% | 32.4–40.0% | 31.2–41.3% |
| 5–13 April 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
37.0% | 34.9–39.3% | 34.3–39.9% | 33.7–40.4% | 32.7–41.5% |
| 5–8 April 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
39.6% | 37.7–41.6% | 37.1–42.2% | 36.6–42.6% | 35.7–43.6% |
| 24–27 March 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
39.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–10 March 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
37.6% | 35.1–40.1% | 34.4–40.8% | 33.8–41.5% | 32.7–42.7% |
| 1–4 March 2021 | Eurosondagem | 39.5% | 37.6–41.5% | 37.0–42.1% | 36.5–42.6% | 35.6–43.5% |
| 17–20 February 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
37.6% | 35.5–39.8% | 34.9–40.4% | 34.3–41.0% | 33.3–42.0% |
| 8–13 February 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
37.6% | 35.1–40.2% | 34.4–40.9% | 33.8–41.5% | 32.7–42.8% |
| 8–11 February 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
39.3% | 37.4–41.3% | 36.9–41.9% | 36.4–42.4% | 35.5–43.3% |
| 24 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
35.0% | 34.1–35.9% | 33.9–36.2% | 33.6–36.4% | 33.2–36.8% |
| 7–18 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
42.4% | 39.9–45.0% | 39.2–45.7% | 38.6–46.3% | 37.4–47.6% |
| 9–15 January 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
39.8% | 37.4–42.4% | 36.7–43.1% | 36.1–43.7% | 34.9–44.9% |
| 11–14 January 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
39.0% | 37.1–41.0% | 36.5–41.5% | 36.0–42.0% | 35.1–43.0% |
| 11–14 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
39.0% | 37.6–40.4% | 37.2–40.8% | 36.9–41.1% | 36.2–41.8% |
| 29 December 2020–10 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
41.3% | 38.9–43.9% | 38.1–44.6% | 37.5–45.2% | 36.4–46.5% |
| 4–7 January 2021 | Intercampus | 38.0% | 35.5–40.6% | 34.8–41.3% | 34.2–41.9% | 33.0–43.2% |
| 22 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
40.9% | 38.4–43.4% | 37.7–44.1% | 37.1–44.7% | 35.9–46.0% |
| 17–27 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
39.7% | 37.3–42.3% | 36.6–43.0% | 36.0–43.6% | 34.8–44.9% |
| 19–22 December 2020 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
38.5% | 36.4–40.8% | 35.8–41.4% | 35.3–41.9% | 34.2–43.0% |
| 17–20 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
40.4% | 37.9–42.9% | 37.2–43.7% | 36.6–44.3% | 35.4–45.5% |
| 14–18 December 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
38.0% | 35.5–40.6% | 34.8–41.3% | 34.2–41.9% | 33.0–43.2% |
| 10–13 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
42.0% | 39.5–44.5% | 38.8–45.3% | 38.2–45.9% | 37.0–47.1% |
| 4–11 December 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
37.0% | 35.3–38.8% | 34.9–39.3% | 34.5–39.7% | 33.7–40.5% |
| 7–10 December 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
38.8% | 36.9–40.8% | 36.4–41.4% | 35.9–41.9% | 35.0–42.8% |
| 23–26 November 2020 | Aximage | 37.2% | 34.9–39.7% | 34.2–40.4% | 33.6–41.0% | 32.5–42.2% |
| 11–25 November 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 39.0% | 36.9–41.3% | 36.2–41.9% | 35.7–42.5% | 34.7–43.5% |
| 9–16 November 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
37.1% | 34.7–39.7% | 34.0–40.4% | 33.4–41.0% | 32.3–42.2% |
| 2–5 November 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
38.3% | 36.3–40.3% | 35.8–40.8% | 35.3–41.3% | 34.4–42.3% |
| 22–26 October 2020 | Aximage | 35.6% | 33.3–38.0% | 32.7–38.7% | 32.1–39.2% | 31.0–40.4% |
| 6–11 October 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
37.5% | 35.1–40.1% | 34.4–40.8% | 33.8–41.4% | 32.6–42.7% |
| 5–8 October 2020 | Eurosondagem | 38.8% | 36.9–40.8% | 36.3–41.4% | 35.8–41.9% | 34.9–42.8% |
| 14–24 September 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 37.3% | 35.2–39.6% | 34.6–40.2% | 34.0–40.7% | 33.0–41.8% |
| 12–15 September 2020 | Aximage | 37.6% | 35.2–40.2% | 34.5–41.0% | 33.9–41.6% | 32.7–42.8% |
| 7–10 September 2020 | Eurosondagem | 38.5% | 36.5–40.4% | 36.0–41.0% | 35.5–41.5% | 34.6–42.4% |
| 4–9 September 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
37.5% | 35.0–40.0% | 34.3–40.7% | 33.7–41.4% | 32.6–42.6% |
| 6–11 August 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
39.6% | 37.1–42.2% | 36.4–42.9% | 35.8–43.6% | 34.6–44.8% |
| 13–18 July 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
39.0% | 37.4–40.6% | 36.9–41.1% | 36.5–41.5% | 35.8–42.3% |
| 8–13 July 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
39.0% | 36.6–41.6% | 35.9–42.3% | 35.3–42.9% | 34.1–44.2% |
| 5–8 July 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
40.4% | 37.9–42.9% | 37.2–43.7% | 36.6–44.3% | 35.4–45.5% |
| 29 June–2 July 2020 | Eurosondagem | 38.4% | 36.5–40.4% | 36.0–41.0% | 35.5–41.5% | 34.6–42.4% |
| 9–13 June 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
40.0% | 37.5–42.6% | 36.8–43.3% | 36.2–43.9% | 35.0–45.2% |
| 5–8 June 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
39.9% | 36.7–43.3% | 35.8–44.3% | 35.0–45.1% | 33.5–46.7% |
| 1–4 June 2020 | Eurosondagem | 38.0% | 36.1–40.0% | 35.5–40.5% | 35.1–41.0% | 34.2–42.0% |
| 16–24 May 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
44.8% | 42.5–47.0% | 41.9–47.7% | 41.4–48.2% | 40.3–49.3% |
| 17–20 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 37.9% | 36.5–39.2% | 36.2–39.6% | 35.8–40.0% | 35.2–40.6% |
| 5–9 May 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
40.3% | 37.8–42.9% | 37.1–43.6% | 36.5–44.2% | 35.3–45.5% |
| 4–7 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 37.7% | 35.8–39.7% | 35.2–40.3% | 34.8–40.8% | 33.9–41.7% |
| 15–26 April 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
41.8% | 39.3–44.4% | 38.6–45.2% | 37.9–45.8% | 36.7–47.1% |
| 9–14 April 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
35.5% | 33.1–38.0% | 32.4–38.7% | 31.8–39.3% | 30.7–40.5% |
| 29 March–2 April 2020 | Eurosondagem | 37.5% | 35.6–39.5% | 35.0–40.1% | 34.6–40.5% | 33.6–41.5% |
| 13–21 March 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
41.7% | 39.1–44.3% | 38.4–45.0% | 37.8–45.6% | 36.6–46.9% |
| 13–19 March 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
31.4% | 29.1–33.9% | 28.4–34.6% | 27.9–35.2% | 26.8–36.4% |
| 1–5 March 2020 | Eurosondagem | 37.3% | 35.4–39.3% | 34.8–39.8% | 34.4–40.3% | 33.4–41.3% |
| 14–18 February 2020 | Aximage | 35.0% | 33.0–37.2% | 32.4–37.8% | 31.9–38.3% | 30.9–39.4% |
| 11–17 February 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
31.1% | 28.8–33.6% | 28.1–34.3% | 27.6–34.9% | 26.5–36.1% |
| 2–6 February 2020 | Eurosondagem | 37.4% | 35.5–39.4% | 34.9–40.0% | 34.4–40.5% | 33.5–41.4% |
| 22 January–5 February 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 33.0% | 30.9–35.2% | 30.3–35.8% | 29.8–36.3% | 28.8–37.4% |
| 19–24 January 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
32.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–9 January 2020 | Eurosondagem | 37.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 December 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
33.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–12 December 2019 | Eurosondagem | 37.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–26 November 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
34.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–21 November 2019 | Eurosondagem | 36.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–11 November 2019 | Aximage | 37.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–28 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
37.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partido Socialista.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.5–28.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 5% | 98% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 10% | 93% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 16% | 84% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 21% | 68% | Median |
| 35.5–36.5% | 22% | 47% | Last Result |
| 36.5–37.5% | 15% | 25% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 7% | 11% | |
| 38.5–39.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 39.5–40.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 40.5–41.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 41.5–42.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42.5–43.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 108 seats (General Election of 6 October 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 97 | 90–106 | 88–108 | 86–112 | 83–115 |
| 24–28 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
103 | 96–112 | 94–112 | 92–115 | 89–118 |
| 23–26 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
105 | 95–113 | 93–115 | 92–118 | 88–121 |
| 19–26 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
98 | 94–104 | 93–106 | 92–107 | 90–109 |
| 22–25 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
105 | 96–114 | 94–117 | 92–118 | 89–122 |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
107 | 97–115 | 95–118 | 93–119 | 89–122 |
| 18–24 January 2022 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
96 | 91–104 | 89–106 | 88–108 | 85–111 |
| 20–23 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 19–22 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 18–21 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
92 | 85–101 | 84–102 | 82–105 | 79–110 |
| 16–21 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
93 | 87–98 | 86–101 | 85–104 | 82–107 |
| 17–20 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 16–19 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
103 | 94–110 | 91–112 | 89–115 | 87–118 |
| 15–18 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 12–18 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
104 | 97–108 | 97–109 | 95–111 | 93–114 |
| 14–17 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 13–16 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
112 | 105–120 | 103–121 | 99–122 | 96–127 |
| 12–15 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 11–14 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 10–13 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 6–12 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
108 | 101–115 | 99–116 | 97–118 | 93–120 |
| 4–10 January 2022 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
98 | 89–106 | 87–108 | 85–110 | 82–114 |
| 6–10 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
110 | 106–116 | 104–118 | 103–119 | 99–120 |
| 30 December 2021–9 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
111 | 103–119 | 101–120 | 98–122 | 95–126 |
| 28 December 2021–5 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
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| 10–20 December 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
108 | 100–113 | 98–116 | 96–117 | 94–119 |
| 7–14 December 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
103 | 96–111 | 93–113 | 91–114 | 86–119 |
| 9–13 December 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
96 | 88–107 | 86–109 | 84–112 | 81–116 |
| 7–12 December 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
104 | 93–110 | 91–112 | 89–113 | 87–119 |
| 10–15 November 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
106 | 98–114 | 96–116 | 94–118 | 90–122 |
| 5–11 November 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
108 | 103–117 | 102–119 | 100–121 | 95–125 |
| 29 October–4 November 2021 | CESOP–UCP | 110 | 103–116 | 102–118 | 99–119 | 95–121 |
| 21 October–1 November 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
117 | 109–123 | 107–125 | 105–126 | 102–130 |
| 28–31 October 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
113 | 107–120 | 105–123 | 103–125 | 101–128 |
| 18–21 October 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
109 | 103–115 | 101–116 | 99–117 | 96–121 |
| 14–23 September 2021 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 20–23 September 2021 | Eurosondagem Sol |
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| 10–19 September 2021 | Pitagórica TVI |
120 | 111–128 | 109–129 | 107–132 | 105–136 |
| 13–20 August 2021 | Intercampus | |||||
| 16–19 August 2021 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 26–29 July 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
117 | 111–122 | 109–124 | 108–125 | 105–129 |
| 7–16 July 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
103 | 97–111 | 94–113 | 91–115 | 86–118 |
| 10–12 July 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
109 | 103–116 | 101–118 | 99–121 | 96–124 |
| 5–8 July 2021 | Eurosondagem | 118 | 111–122 | 109–124 | 108–126 | 105–129 |
| 8–16 June 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
100 | 92–109 | 90–111 | 88–114 | 83–116 |
| 31 May–3 June 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
117 | 110–122 | 109–123 | 107–125 | 104–128 |
| 26–30 May 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
115 | 107–121 | 106–123 | 105–125 | 102–129 |
| 10–13 May 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
115 | 108–120 | 106–122 | 105–124 | 103–126 |
| 5–11 May 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
110 | 105–120 | 103–122 | 101–123 | 100–128 |
| 3–7 May 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
108 | 103–114 | 102–116 | 100–116 | 97–119 |
| 22–25 April 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
111 | 105–116 | 102–117 | 101–119 | 97–122 |
| 7–13 April 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
104 | 98–113 | 96–116 | 93–117 | 89–122 |
| 5–13 April 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
106 | 99–113 | 97–114 | 96–116 | 90–118 |
| 5–8 April 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
115 | 109–120 | 106–122 | 105–123 | 103–127 |
| 24–27 March 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
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| 4–10 March 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
110 | 104–119 | 101–121 | 99–123 | 95–127 |
| 1–4 March 2021 | Eurosondagem | 114 | 108–120 | 107–121 | 105–122 | 102–126 |
| 17–20 February 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
108 | 101–115 | 99–116 | 98–117 | 95–121 |
| 8–13 February 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
108 | 102–116 | 100–119 | 98–122 | 95–126 |
| 8–11 February 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
115 | 109–120 | 107–121 | 106–122 | 103–128 |
| 24 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
106 | 103–109 | 102–109 | 102–109 | 101–111 |
| 7–18 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
121 | 115–131 | 113–133 | 111–134 | 108–138 |
| 9–15 January 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
115 | 107–121 | 106–124 | 104–126 | 100–130 |
| 11–14 January 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
116 | 110–121 | 108–122 | 106–123 | 104–127 |
| 11–14 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
111 | 106–114 | 105–115 | 104–116 | 102–118 |
| 29 December 2020–10 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
114 | 108–125 | 107–128 | 106–130 | 103–134 |
| 4–7 January 2021 | Intercampus | 110 | 103–117 | 101–120 | 97–122 | 94–125 |
| 22 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
119 | 110–129 | 108–130 | 107–131 | 104–135 |
| 17–27 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
114 | 107–122 | 104–123 | 103–125 | 99–130 |
| 19–22 December 2020 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
113 | 105–118 | 104–119 | 102–121 | 100–123 |
| 17–20 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
115 | 107–122 | 105–123 | 103–126 | 99–130 |
| 14–18 December 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
112 | 105–121 | 103–123 | 102–125 | 98–130 |
| 10–13 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
119 | 111–127 | 110–130 | 108–133 | 105–136 |
| 4–11 December 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
103 | 97–108 | 95–110 | 93–111 | 90–114 |
| 7–10 December 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
112 | 107–119 | 105–120 | 103–122 | 99–124 |
| 23–26 November 2020 | Aximage | 110 | 103–117 | 101–119 | 100–121 | 96–125 |
| 11–25 November 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 115 | 108–122 | 107–125 | 106–126 | 103–129 |
| 9–16 November 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
109 | 103–117 | 101–120 | 99–122 | 95–125 |
| 2–5 November 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
110 | 103–116 | 102–118 | 100–119 | 96–121 |
| 22–26 October 2020 | Aximage | 102 | 96–110 | 93–112 | 91–114 | 86–117 |
| 6–11 October 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
109 | 102–116 | 99–117 | 98–120 | 93–124 |
| 5–8 October 2020 | Eurosondagem | 112 | 106–118 | 105–119 | 103–120 | 99–122 |
| 14–24 September 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | |||||
| 12–15 September 2020 | Aximage | 114 | 106–120 | 104–124 | 102–129 | 99–129 |
| 7–10 September 2020 | Eurosondagem | 113 | 106–119 | 104–119 | 103–121 | 100–122 |
| 4–9 September 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
110 | 104–117 | 101–120 | 98–120 | 95–126 |
| 6–11 August 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
112 | 106–120 | 104–122 | 103–123 | 100–126 |
| 13–18 July 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
114 | 109–118 | 107–119 | 106–121 | 104–124 |
| 8–13 July 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
111 | 105–122 | 102–122 | 100–122 | 98–129 |
| 5–8 July 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
119 | 112–127 | 109–129 | 105–130 | 102–136 |
| 29 June–2 July 2020 | Eurosondagem | 111 | 105–117 | 102–118 | 100–119 | 96–121 |
| 9–13 June 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
112 | 108–121 | 108–124 | 105–126 | 102–127 |
| 5–8 June 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
118 | 105–131 | 104–131 | 102–133 | 96–137 |
| 1–4 June 2020 | Eurosondagem | 113 | 107–118 | 103–119 | 101–120 | 98–122 |
| 16–24 May 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
129 | 122–136 | 119–137 | 118–137 | 116–141 |
| 17–20 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 110 | 108–114 | 107–115 | 106–116 | 103–119 |
| 5–9 May 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
117 | 110–126 | 109–127 | 108–128 | 104–134 |
| 4–7 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 112 | 105–115 | 102–117 | 100–119 | 97–121 |
| 15–26 April 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
120 | 114–128 | 112–130 | 109–131 | 106–134 |
| 9–14 April 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
105 | 99–109 | 97–112 | 95–114 | 89–117 |
| 29 March–2 April 2020 | Eurosondagem | 111 | 106–118 | 104–119 | 102–121 | 98–125 |
| 13–21 March 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
118 | 111–125 | 108–127 | 107–129 | 104–132 |
| 13–19 March 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
93 | 80–93 | 80–97 | 79–100 | 75–106 |
| 1–5 March 2020 | Eurosondagem | 109 | 104–116 | 103–119 | 103–119 | 98–124 |
| 14–18 February 2020 | Aximage | 106 | 101–115 | 100–117 | 98–118 | 95–120 |
| 11–17 February 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
94 | 78–98 | 78–104 | 77–105 | 74–107 |
| 2–6 February 2020 | Eurosondagem | 112 | 107–119 | 107–120 | 106–120 | 102–124 |
| 22 January–5 February 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 97 | 85–103 | 85–104 | 85–105 | 80–109 |
| 19–24 January 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 5–9 January 2020 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 12–17 December 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 8–12 December 2019 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 20–26 November 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 17–21 November 2019 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 8–11 November 2019 | Aximage | |||||
| 22–28 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partido Socialista.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 87 | 2% | 97% | |
| 88 | 2% | 96% | |
| 89 | 3% | 94% | |
| 90 | 2% | 91% | |
| 91 | 2% | 89% | |
| 92 | 5% | 87% | |
| 93 | 6% | 82% | |
| 94 | 7% | 76% | |
| 95 | 6% | 69% | |
| 96 | 6% | 63% | |
| 97 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 98 | 10% | 50% | |
| 99 | 5% | 40% | |
| 100 | 2% | 35% | |
| 101 | 4% | 33% | |
| 102 | 4% | 28% | |
| 103 | 5% | 24% | |
| 104 | 3% | 20% | |
| 105 | 2% | 17% | |
| 106 | 6% | 14% | |
| 107 | 2% | 8% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 109 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 112 | 2% | 3% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |