Poll Average

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Summary

The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) PS PSD BE CDU CDS–PP PAN CH IL L A
6 October 2019 General Election 36.4%
108
27.8%
79
9.5%
19
6.3%
12
4.2%
5
3.3%
4
1.3%
1
1.3%
1
1.1%
1
0.8%
0
N/A Poll Average 32–39%
86–112
27–36%
73–104
4–10%
4–18
4–8%
5–15
1–2%
0–1
1–5%
0–8
4–9%
5–17
2–7%
3–12
0–3%
0–2
N/A
N/A
24–28 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
33–40%
92–115
30–36%
83–103
4–7%
4–13
4–7%
5–13
1–3%
0–1
1–2%
0–2
4–7%
4–11
4–7%
5–12
1–3%
1–3
N/A
N/A
19–26 January 2022 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
34–38%
92–107
31–35%
85–99
5–7%
7–14
4–6%
5–9
1–3%
0–2
1–3%
1–2
5–7%
7–11
5–7%
6–12
1–3%
1–2
N/A
N/A
18–24 January 2022 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias
32–38%
88–108
30–36%
84–103
4–7%
4–11
5–8%
6–15
1–2%
0
1–3%
0–3
5–8%
5–12
5–8%
6–14
1–2%
0–1
N/A
N/A
16–21 January 2022 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
31–37%
85–104
31–37%
88–106
5–8%
7–16
3–6%
4–10
1–3%
0–1
2–5%
2–6
6–10%
11–18
2–4%
2–5
1–2%
0–2
N/A
N/A
4–10 January 2022 Intercampus
CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios
32–39%
85–110
26–33%
68–93
7–11%
11–21
4–8%
6–16
1–2%
0–1
3–6%
2–10
5–9%
8–17
4–8%
5–13
0–2%
0–1
N/A
N/A
6 October 2019 General Election 36.4%
108
27.8%
79
9.5%
19
6.3%
12
4.2%
5
3.3%
4
1.3%
1
1.3%
1
1.1%
1
0.8%
0

Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.

Legend:

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 35.4% 33.0–37.6% 32.3–38.3% 31.7–39.0% 30.6–40.3%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 32.9% 29.2–35.2% 28.1–35.9% 27.2–36.5% 25.8–37.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.1% 4.6–8.6% 4.3–9.3% 4.1–9.9% 3.6–10.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.3% 4.2–6.7% 4.0–7.1% 3.7–7.5% 3.3–8.3%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.5% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.6–2.5% 0.5–2.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.3% 1.3–4.4% 1.0–4.9% 0.9–5.3% 0.6–6.1%
Chega 1.3% 6.4% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–8.9% 4.5–9.3% 4.0–10.0%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.5% 2.9–6.7% 2.5–7.0% 2.3–7.3% 1.9–7.9%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.5% 0.7–2.2% 0.5–2.4% 0.4–2.6% 0.3–3.0%
Aliança 0.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27.5–28.5% 0% 100%  
28.5–29.5% 0.1% 100%  
29.5–30.5% 0.4% 99.9%  
30.5–31.5% 2% 99.6%  
31.5–32.5% 5% 98%  
32.5–33.5% 10% 93%  
33.5–34.5% 16% 84%  
34.5–35.5% 21% 68% Median
35.5–36.5% 22% 47% Last Result
36.5–37.5% 15% 25%  
37.5–38.5% 7% 11%  
38.5–39.5% 3% 4%  
39.5–40.5% 0.9% 1.3%  
40.5–41.5% 0.3% 0.3%  
41.5–42.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
42.5–43.5% 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22.5–23.5% 0% 100%  
23.5–24.5% 0.1% 100%  
24.5–25.5% 0.3% 99.9%  
25.5–26.5% 0.9% 99.7%  
26.5–27.5% 2% 98.8%  
27.5–28.5% 4% 97% Last Result
28.5–29.5% 5% 93%  
29.5–30.5% 6% 88%  
30.5–31.5% 9% 82%  
31.5–32.5% 17% 73%  
32.5–33.5% 21% 56% Median
33.5–34.5% 18% 35%  
34.5–35.5% 10% 17%  
35.5–36.5% 5% 7%  
36.5–37.5% 2% 2%  
37.5–38.5% 0.4% 0.5%  
38.5–39.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
39.5–40.5% 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0.4% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 8% 99.6%  
4.5–5.5% 24% 91%  
5.5–6.5% 31% 67% Median
6.5–7.5% 16% 36%  
7.5–8.5% 9% 20%  
8.5–9.5% 6% 10%  
9.5–10.5% 3% 4% Last Result
10.5–11.5% 0.8% 1.0%  
11.5–12.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
12.5–13.5% 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 1.4% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 17% 98.6%  
4.5–5.5% 41% 82% Median
5.5–6.5% 28% 41% Last Result
6.5–7.5% 11% 13%  
7.5–8.5% 2% 2%  
8.5–9.5% 0.2% 0.3%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 1.0% 100%  
0.5–1.5% 52% 99.0%  
1.5–2.5% 45% 47% Median
2.5–3.5% 2% 2%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0.2% 100%  
0.5–1.5% 18% 99.8%  
1.5–2.5% 39% 82% Median
2.5–3.5% 19% 43% Last Result
3.5–4.5% 15% 23%  
4.5–5.5% 7% 8%  
5.5–6.5% 2% 2%  
6.5–7.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.5–1.5% 0% 100% Last Result
1.5–2.5% 5% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 13% 95%  
3.5–4.5% 8% 82%  
4.5–5.5% 24% 74%  
5.5–6.5% 36% 49% Median
6.5–7.5% 12% 13%  
7.5–8.5% 1.3% 1.4%  
8.5–9.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.5–1.5% 0% 100% Last Result
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0.1% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 3% 99.9%  
4.5–5.5% 17% 97%  
5.5–6.5% 35% 80% Median
6.5–7.5% 22% 45%  
7.5–8.5% 15% 23%  
8.5–9.5% 7% 8%  
9.5–10.5% 1.3% 1.4%  
10.5–11.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 6% 100%  
0.5–1.5% 49% 94% Last Result, Median
1.5–2.5% 42% 45%  
2.5–3.5% 3% 3%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 97 90–106 88–108 86–112 83–115
Partido Social Democrata 79 93 80–100 76–102 73–104 68–107
Bloco de Esquerda 19 9 7–17 5–18 4–18 3–21
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 5–13 5–14 5–15 4–16
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 0–5 0–6 0–8 0–10
Chega 1 10 8–14 7–15 5–17 4–19
Iniciativa Liberal 1 8 3–12 3–12 3–12 2–14
LIVRE 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Aliança 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.4%  
85 0.5% 99.0%  
86 1.1% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 2% 96%  
89 3% 94%  
90 2% 91%  
91 2% 89%  
92 5% 87%  
93 6% 82%  
94 7% 76%  
95 6% 69%  
96 6% 63%  
97 7% 57% Median
98 10% 50%  
99 5% 40%  
100 2% 35%  
101 4% 33%  
102 4% 28%  
103 5% 24%  
104 3% 20%  
105 2% 17%  
106 6% 14%  
107 2% 8%  
108 1.2% 6% Last Result
109 0.9% 5%  
110 0.5% 4%  
111 0.5% 3%  
112 2% 3%  
113 0.4% 1.2%  
114 0.2% 0.8%  
115 0.2% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.4% Majority
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.6%  
69 0.2% 99.5%  
70 0.3% 99.3%  
71 0.4% 99.0%  
72 1.1% 98.6%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 0.8% 97%  
75 0.5% 96%  
76 0.7% 95%  
77 1.3% 95%  
78 2% 93%  
79 1.2% 91% Last Result
80 2% 90%  
81 1.2% 89%  
82 1.3% 88%  
83 1.3% 86%  
84 2% 85%  
85 3% 83%  
86 2% 80%  
87 4% 78%  
88 4% 74%  
89 4% 70%  
90 5% 66%  
91 3% 61%  
92 5% 57%  
93 4% 53% Median
94 7% 48%  
95 5% 42%  
96 7% 37%  
97 8% 30%  
98 6% 22%  
99 5% 17%  
100 3% 12%  
101 2% 9%  
102 2% 7%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.1% 3%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.0%  
107 0.3% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.7% 99.8%  
4 2% 99.1%  
5 3% 97%  
6 1.4% 95%  
7 28% 93%  
8 5% 65%  
9 13% 60% Median
10 6% 47%  
11 11% 41%  
12 5% 30%  
13 2% 25%  
14 5% 22%  
15 4% 17%  
16 3% 13%  
17 2% 10%  
18 6% 8%  
19 0.7% 2% Last Result
20 0.5% 1.3%  
21 0.4% 0.8%  
22 0.2% 0.4%  
23 0% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 0.4% 99.8%  
5 14% 99.3%  
6 14% 85%  
7 16% 71%  
8 23% 56% Median
9 9% 33%  
10 5% 24%  
11 4% 19%  
12 4% 16% Last Result
13 3% 12%  
14 6% 9%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.4% 0.8%  
17 0.2% 0.4%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 24% 26%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 19% 85%  
2 31% 65% Median
3 8% 35%  
4 14% 27% Last Result
5 3% 13%  
6 6% 10%  
7 0.5% 4%  
8 0.9% 3%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 1.4% 99.9%  
5 1.1% 98.5%  
6 0.5% 97%  
7 3% 97%  
8 19% 94%  
9 7% 75%  
10 20% 68% Median
11 26% 48%  
12 4% 23%  
13 5% 19%  
14 6% 13%  
15 4% 8%  
16 1.1% 4%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.6% 1.2%  
19 0.2% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 0.3% 99.7%  
3 11% 99.4%  
4 8% 89%  
5 2% 81%  
6 17% 79%  
7 6% 62%  
8 8% 56% Median
9 17% 48%  
10 9% 31%  
11 7% 22%  
12 13% 15%  
13 0.8% 2%  
14 1.3% 1.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 61% 74% Last Result, Median
2 11% 13%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 115 48% 108–126 107–129 104–133 101–137
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 107 13% 101–117 99–120 97–123 94–127
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 106 9% 97–115 95–118 93–120 90–123
Partido Socialista 108 97 0.4% 90–106 88–108 86–112 83–115
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 93 0% 80–100 76–103 73–104 68–107

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.3% 99.7%  
102 0.4% 99.4%  
103 0.9% 99.0%  
104 0.8% 98%  
105 1.0% 97%  
106 1.0% 96%  
107 2% 95%  
108 4% 93%  
109 3% 89%  
110 5% 86%  
111 6% 81%  
112 8% 75%  
113 6% 67%  
114 7% 61% Median
115 6% 54%  
116 4% 48% Majority
117 3% 44%  
118 5% 41%  
119 5% 36%  
120 4% 31%  
121 5% 28%  
122 4% 23%  
123 4% 19%  
124 1.2% 15%  
125 3% 14%  
126 2% 12%  
127 3% 10%  
128 0.7% 7%  
129 1.1% 6%  
130 0.9% 5%  
131 0.7% 4%  
132 0.4% 3%  
133 0.4% 3%  
134 0.4% 2%  
135 1.2% 2%  
136 0.3% 0.8%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.2% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.4% 99.6%  
95 0.6% 99.2%  
96 0.9% 98.6%  
97 1.3% 98%  
98 1.3% 96%  
99 2% 95%  
100 3% 93%  
101 3% 90%  
102 4% 87%  
103 7% 83%  
104 6% 76%  
105 8% 70%  
106 8% 62% Median
107 9% 54%  
108 4% 45%  
109 3% 41%  
110 3% 38%  
111 4% 35%  
112 4% 31%  
113 6% 27%  
114 3% 21%  
115 4% 18%  
116 3% 13% Majority
117 2% 11%  
118 1.3% 9%  
119 3% 8%  
120 1.3% 5%  
121 0.8% 4%  
122 0.5% 3%  
123 0.5% 3%  
124 1.2% 2%  
125 0.3% 0.9%  
126 0.2% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
128 0.2% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.4% 99.5%  
92 0.9% 99.1%  
93 1.0% 98%  
94 1.3% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 1.3% 94%  
97 4% 93%  
98 2% 89%  
99 3% 87%  
100 5% 84%  
101 6% 79%  
102 5% 74%  
103 4% 69%  
104 6% 65%  
105 6% 59% Median
106 6% 53%  
107 6% 47%  
108 4% 41%  
109 5% 36%  
110 4% 31%  
111 4% 27%  
112 4% 23%  
113 4% 19%  
114 4% 15%  
115 2% 11%  
116 2% 9% Majority
117 2% 7%  
118 1.4% 5%  
119 1.0% 4%  
120 2% 3% Last Result
121 0.4% 1.5%  
122 0.2% 1.0%  
123 0.3% 0.8%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.4%  
85 0.5% 99.0%  
86 1.1% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 2% 96%  
89 3% 94%  
90 2% 91%  
91 2% 89%  
92 5% 87%  
93 6% 82%  
94 7% 76%  
95 6% 69%  
96 6% 63%  
97 7% 57% Median
98 10% 50%  
99 5% 40%  
100 2% 35%  
101 4% 33%  
102 4% 28%  
103 5% 24%  
104 3% 20%  
105 2% 17%  
106 6% 14%  
107 2% 8%  
108 1.2% 6% Last Result
109 0.9% 5%  
110 0.5% 4%  
111 0.5% 3%  
112 2% 3%  
113 0.4% 1.2%  
114 0.2% 0.8%  
115 0.2% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.4% Majority
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.6%  
69 0.2% 99.5%  
70 0.3% 99.3%  
71 0.4% 99.0%  
72 1.1% 98.7%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 0.8% 97%  
75 0.5% 96%  
76 0.7% 95%  
77 1.3% 95%  
78 2% 93%  
79 1.0% 92%  
80 2% 91%  
81 1.0% 89%  
82 1.4% 88%  
83 1.3% 86%  
84 2% 85% Last Result
85 3% 83%  
86 2% 81%  
87 3% 78%  
88 4% 76%  
89 5% 71%  
90 4% 67%  
91 4% 63%  
92 5% 59%  
93 5% 54% Median
94 4% 49%  
95 6% 45%  
96 6% 39%  
97 9% 33%  
98 6% 24%  
99 6% 18%  
100 2% 12%  
101 3% 10%  
102 2% 7%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.0% 3%  
105 1.1% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.1%  
107 0.4% 0.7%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Technical Information