Chega
Voting Intentions
Last result: 1.3% (General Election of 6 October 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6.4% | 5.2–8.4% | 4.8–8.9% | 4.5–9.3% | 4.0–10.0% |
| 24–28 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
5.4% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.2–6.9% | 4.0–7.2% | 3.6–7.9% |
| 23–26 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
5.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.8–6.8% | 3.6–7.1% | 3.2–7.8% |
| 19–26 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.5% |
| 22–25 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6.7% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.3–8.7% | 5.0–9.0% | 4.5–9.8% |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
7.6% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.0–9.6% | 5.7–10.0% | 5.2–10.7% |
| 18–24 January 2022 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 20–23 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–22 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–21 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6.4% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.0–8.3% | 4.7–8.7% | 4.2–9.4% |
| 16–21 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.4–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 17–20 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–19 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6.2% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.8–8.1% | 4.6–8.5% | 4.1–9.2% |
| 15–18 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
7.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–18 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6.0% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.5–7.8% |
| 14–17 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
7.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–16 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
8.1% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.4–10.1% | 6.1–10.5% | 5.6–11.3% |
| 12–15 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
8.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–14 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
7.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–13 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–12 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
9.0% | 7.9–10.5% | 7.5–10.9% | 7.3–11.2% | 6.7–11.9% |
| 4–10 January 2022 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.2% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.7–9.1% | 5.4–9.5% | 4.9–10.2% |
| 6–10 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.5–8.0% |
| 30 December 2021–9 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
5.7% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.3–7.5% | 4.1–7.8% | 3.6–8.6% |
| 28 December 2021–5 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–20 December 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.1–9.5% |
| 7–14 December 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
9.0% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.2–11.1% | 6.9–11.5% | 6.3–12.4% |
| 9–13 December 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
6.3% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.7–8.5% | 4.4–8.9% | 3.8–9.8% |
| 7–12 December 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6.2% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.8–8.1% | 4.6–8.4% | 4.1–9.2% |
| 10–15 November 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
7.0% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.6–8.9% | 5.3–9.3% | 4.8–10.1% |
| 5–11 November 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
6.4% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.0–8.2% | 4.7–8.6% | 4.2–9.3% |
| 29 October–4 November 2021 | CESOP–UCP | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 21 October–1 November 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
10.0% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.4–11.9% | 8.1–12.3% | 7.5–13.0% |
| 28–31 October 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
7.7% | 6.6–9.1% | 6.3–9.4% | 6.1–9.8% | 5.6–10.5% |
| 18–21 October 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
9.2% | 8.2–10.5% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.8% |
| 14–23 September 2021 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
8.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–23 September 2021 | Eurosondagem Sol |
8.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–19 September 2021 | Pitagórica TVI |
7.1% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.6–9.0% | 5.3–9.4% | 4.8–10.2% |
| 13–20 August 2021 | Intercampus | 7.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–19 August 2021 | Eurosondagem | 9.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–29 July 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
8.8% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.7–11.3% |
| 7–16 July 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
9.1% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.3–11.2% | 7.0–11.6% | 6.4–12.5% |
| 10–12 July 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
7.7% | 6.6–9.1% | 6.3–9.5% | 6.0–9.9% | 5.5–10.6% |
| 5–8 July 2021 | Eurosondagem | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| 8–16 June 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
10.0% | 8.6–11.8% | 8.2–12.3% | 7.9–12.7% | 7.3–13.6% |
| 31 May–3 June 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
8.4% | 7.4–9.6% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| 26–30 May 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
7.0% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.5–9.0% | 5.0–9.7% |
| 10–13 May 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| 5–11 May 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
8.3% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.7–10.4% | 6.4–10.8% | 5.8–11.6% |
| 3–7 May 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% |
| 22–25 April 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
7.2% | 6.2–8.5% | 5.9–8.9% | 5.7–9.2% | 5.2–9.9% |
| 7–13 April 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
9.4% | 8.0–11.1% | 7.6–11.5% | 7.3–11.9% | 6.7–12.8% |
| 5–13 April 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.5–7.8% | 4.1–8.5% |
| 5–8 April 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
7.7% | 6.8–8.9% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.2–9.6% | 5.8–10.2% |
| 24–27 March 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
8.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–10 March 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
8.9% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.2–11.1% | 6.9–11.5% | 6.3–12.3% |
| 1–4 March 2021 | Eurosondagem | 7.5% | 6.6–8.7% | 6.3–9.0% | 6.1–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| 17–20 February 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
6.4% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.0% | 5.0–8.4% | 4.5–9.0% |
| 8–13 February 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.2% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.7–9.2% | 5.4–9.6% | 4.9–10.3% |
| 8–11 February 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
7.3% | 6.4–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.9–9.1% | 5.5–9.7% |
| 24 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
9.0% | 8.5–9.6% | 8.3–9.7% | 8.2–9.9% | 8.0–10.1% |
| 7–18 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.4–8.7% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.8% |
| 9–15 January 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
7.6% | 6.4–9.1% | 6.0–9.5% | 5.7–9.9% | 5.2–10.7% |
| 11–14 January 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| 11–14 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.5–9.7% |
| 29 December 2020–10 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
5.9% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.5–7.7% | 4.3–8.0% | 3.8–8.7% |
| 4–7 January 2021 | Intercampus | 9.1% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.4–11.3% | 7.1–11.7% | 6.5–12.5% |
| 22 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
8.4% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.5% | 6.5–10.9% | 5.9–11.7% |
| 17–27 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
9.1% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.4–11.2% | 7.1–11.6% | 6.5–12.4% |
| 19–22 December 2020 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
7.8% | 6.7–9.1% | 6.4–9.5% | 6.1–9.8% | 5.6–10.5% |
| 17–20 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
8.4% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.8–10.5% | 6.5–10.9% | 5.9–11.7% |
| 14–18 December 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.6% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.1–9.6% | 5.8–10.0% | 5.2–10.8% |
| 10–13 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
8.3% | 7.0–9.8% | 6.7–10.3% | 6.4–10.7% | 5.8–11.5% |
| 4–11 December 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6.0% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.5–7.9% |
| 7–10 December 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.7% | 3.6–7.3% |
| 23–26 November 2020 | Aximage | 7.6% | 6.4–9.1% | 6.1–9.5% | 5.8–9.9% | 5.3–10.6% |
| 11–25 November 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 7.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.4–9.0% | 5.0–9.6% |
| 9–16 November 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.2% | 6.1–8.7% | 5.7–9.2% | 5.4–9.6% | 4.9–10.3% |
| 2–5 November 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
5.0% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 22–26 October 2020 | Aximage | 5.5% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.2–7.1% | 4.0–7.4% | 3.6–8.1% |
| 6–11 October 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.8% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.2–9.8% | 5.9–10.2% | 5.4–10.9% |
| 5–8 October 2020 | Eurosondagem | 4.8% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.3–6.8% |
| 14–24 September 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 7.1% | 6.1–8.4% | 5.8–8.8% | 5.5–9.1% | 5.1–9.8% |
| 12–15 September 2020 | Aximage | 6.8% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.3–8.7% | 5.0–9.1% | 4.5–9.9% |
| 7–10 September 2020 | Eurosondagem | 4.5% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.1–6.4% |
| 4–9 September 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.3% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.8–9.3% | 5.5–9.7% | 5.0–10.5% |
| 6–11 August 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.8% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.2–9.9% | 5.9–10.3% | 5.4–11.1% |
| 13–18 July 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.9% |
| 8–13 July 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.1% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–8.0% | 4.5–8.3% | 4.0–9.0% |
| 5–8 July 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
5.1% | 4.2–6.4% | 3.9–6.8% | 3.7–7.2% | 3.2–7.8% |
| 29 June–2 July 2020 | Eurosondagem | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.3–5.8% | 3.0–6.3% |
| 9–13 June 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.7% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.3–8.6% | 5.0–9.0% | 4.5–9.8% |
| 5–8 June 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
5.3% | 4.1–7.1% | 3.7–7.7% | 3.4–8.2% | 2.9–9.1% |
| 1–4 June 2020 | Eurosondagem | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 16–24 May 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
6.4% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.1–8.0% | 4.9–8.3% | 4.4–8.9% |
| 17–20 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 4.3% | 3.8–4.9% | 3.6–5.1% | 3.5–5.2% | 3.3–5.6% |
| 5–9 May 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.8% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.3–8.7% | 5.0–9.0% | 4.6–9.8% |
| 4–7 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 15–26 April 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
7.3% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.7–9.3% | 5.5–9.6% | 4.9–10.4% |
| 9–14 April 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.9% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.3–9.9% | 6.0–10.3% | 5.5–11.1% |
| 29 March–2 April 2020 | Eurosondagem | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.7% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.3–5.4% |
| 13–21 March 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
8.1% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.5–10.2% | 6.2–10.6% | 5.6–11.4% |
| 13–19 March 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
8.7% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.0–10.8% | 6.7–11.2% | 6.1–12.0% |
| 1–5 March 2020 | Eurosondagem | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| 14–18 February 2020 | Aximage | 4.3% | 3.5–5.3% | 3.3–5.6% | 3.1–5.9% | 2.8–6.4% |
| 11–17 February 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.4–8.7% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.9% |
| 2–6 February 2020 | Eurosondagem | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| 22 January–5 February 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| 19–24 January 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–9 January 2020 | Eurosondagem | 2.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 December 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
5.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–12 December 2019 | Eurosondagem | 1.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–26 November 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
4.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–21 November 2019 | Eurosondagem | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–11 November 2019 | Aximage | 3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–28 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Chega.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 17% | 97% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 35% | 80% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 22% | 45% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 15% | 23% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 7% | 8% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 1 seats (General Election of 6 October 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 10 | 8–14 | 7–15 | 5–17 | 4–19 |
| 24–28 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
8 | 6–11 | 4–11 | 4–11 | 4–13 |
| 23–26 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
8 | 4–11 | 4–11 | 4–11 | 3–13 |
| 19–26 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| 22–25 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
11 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 8–18 | 5–19 |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
12 | 11–17 | 10–19 | 9–20 | 8–24 |
| 18–24 January 2022 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 5–12 | 4–14 |
| 20–23 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
|||||
| 19–22 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
|||||
| 18–21 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
11 | 8–13 | 7–14 | 6–15 | 4–18 |
| 16–21 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
13 | 11–17 | 11–17 | 11–18 | 9–21 |
| 17–20 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
|||||
| 16–19 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
10 | 8–11 | 6–13 | 5–14 | 4–17 |
| 15–18 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
|||||
| 12–18 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 5–12 |
| 14–17 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
|||||
| 13–16 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
13 | 11–18 | 10–19 | 9–20 | 8–23 |
| 12–15 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
|||||
| 11–14 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
|||||
| 10–13 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
|||||
| 6–12 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
16 | 13–21 | 11–22 | 11–23 | 11–26 |
| 4–10 January 2022 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
11 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 8–17 | 6–20 |
| 6–10 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 4–14 |
| 30 December 2021–9 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
8 | 5–11 | 4–11 | 4–13 | 3–14 |
| 28 December 2021–5 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
|||||
| 10–20 December 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
11 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 8–18 |
| 7–14 December 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
17 | 12–23 | 11–25 | 11–26 | 10–28 |
| 9–13 December 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
11 | 7–13 | 6–14 | 4–15 | 4–18 |
| 7–12 December 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
10 | 7–11 | 6–13 | 5–14 | 4–16 |
| 10–15 November 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
11 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 8–18 | 6–19 |
| 5–11 November 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
11 | 8–12 | 7–13 | 6–13 | 4–15 |
| 29 October–4 November 2021 | CESOP–UCP | 7 | 4–10 | 4–10 | 3–11 | 3–11 |
| 21 October–1 November 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
20 | 16–24 | 14–26 | 14–27 | 12–29 |
| 28–31 October 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
13 | 11–17 | 10–19 | 10–20 | 8–22 |
| 18–21 October 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
17 | 14–21 | 12–23 | 11–23 | 11–25 |
| 14–23 September 2021 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
|||||
| 20–23 September 2021 | Eurosondagem Sol |
|||||
| 10–19 September 2021 | Pitagórica TVI |
11 | 8–14 | 8–16 | 8–18 | 6–20 |
| 13–20 August 2021 | Intercampus | |||||
| 16–19 August 2021 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 26–29 July 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
14 | 12–19 | 11–20 | 11–22 | 11–23 |
| 7–16 July 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
16 | 13–23 | 11–25 | 11–26 | 11–28 |
| 10–12 July 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
13 | 11–17 | 10–19 | 9–20 | 8–23 |
| 5–8 July 2021 | Eurosondagem | 17 | 13–21 | 12–22 | 11–23 | 11–24 |
| 8–16 June 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
22 | 14–25 | 13–26 | 12–27 | 11–30 |
| 31 May–3 June 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
14 | 11–18 | 11–20 | 11–21 | 11–23 |
| 26–30 May 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
11 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–16 | 8–19 |
| 10–13 May 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
14 | 11–17 | 11–18 | 11–20 | 10–22 |
| 5–11 May 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
15 | 11–21 | 11–24 | 10–25 | 9–25 |
| 3–7 May 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
9 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 4–14 |
| 22–25 April 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
11 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–17 | 8–18 |
| 7–13 April 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
18 | 13–24 | 12–25 | 11–25 | 11–28 |
| 5–13 April 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
10 | 7–11 | 6–12 | 5–13 | 4–14 |
| 5–8 April 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
13 | 11–17 | 11–18 | 11–19 | 9–22 |
| 24–27 March 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
|||||
| 4–10 March 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
17 | 13–23 | 11–24 | 11–25 | 10–27 |
| 1–4 March 2021 | Eurosondagem | 13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–18 |
| 17–20 February 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
10 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 7–14 | 5–16 |
| 8–13 February 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
13 | 10–15 | 8–17 | 8–19 | 6–21 |
| 8–11 February 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
12 | 11–14 | 10–16 | 9–17 | 8–19 |
| 24 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
17 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| 7–18 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
11 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 7–17 | 5–19 |
| 9–15 January 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
13 | 10–16 | 9–18 | 8–19 | 8–22 |
| 11–14 January 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
9 | 7–11 | 5–11 | 4–12 | 4–13 |
| 11–14 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 11–18 |
| 29 December 2020–10 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
9 | 6–11 | 4–12 | 4–14 | 3–14 |
| 4–7 January 2021 | Intercampus | 16 | 13–23 | 11–24 | 11–25 | 11–27 |
| 22 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
14 | 11–20 | 11–21 | 11–22 | 9–26 |
| 17–27 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
17 | 13–22 | 12–23 | 11–25 | 11–28 |
| 19–22 December 2020 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
14 | 11–16 | 11–18 | 9–18 | 8–22 |
| 17–20 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
14 | 11–19 | 11–21 | 11–22 | 9–25 |
| 14–18 December 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
14 | 11–18 | 10–20 | 9–21 | 8–24 |
| 10–13 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
14 | 11–18 | 11–20 | 11–22 | 8–24 |
| 4–11 December 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 4–13 |
| 7–10 December 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
8 | 4–11 | 4–11 | 4–11 | 4–12 |
| 23–26 November 2020 | Aximage | 13 | 11–16 | 10–18 | 8–19 | 8–23 |
| 11–25 November 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 11 | 10–14 | 8–16 | 8–16 | 7–18 |
| 9–16 November 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
11 | 10–15 | 9–17 | 8–19 | 7–22 |
| 2–5 November 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
8 | 4–10 | 4–11 | 4–11 | 3–11 |
| 22–26 October 2020 | Aximage | 8 | 5–11 | 4–11 | 4–11 | 3–14 |
| 6–11 October 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
13 | 11–18 | 11–19 | 10–20 | 8–23 |
| 5–8 October 2020 | Eurosondagem | 7 | 4–8 | 4–10 | 4–11 | 3–11 |
| 14–24 September 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | |||||
| 12–15 September 2020 | Aximage | 11 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 8–15 | 6–20 |
| 7–10 September 2020 | Eurosondagem | 7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–11 |
| 4–9 September 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
11 | 10–16 | 8–18 | 8–19 | 8–23 |
| 6–11 August 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
12 | 11–15 | 10–18 | 8–19 | 8–22 |
| 13–18 July 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
11 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| 8–13 July 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
11 | 7–11 | 6–13 | 5–14 | 4–15 |
| 5–8 July 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
8 | 5–11 | 4–11 | 3–11 | 3–13 |
| 29 June–2 July 2020 | Eurosondagem | 5 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 2–11 |
| 9–13 June 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
11 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 6–14 | 5–17 |
| 5–8 June 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
8 | 4–11 | 3–14 | 3–16 | 2–17 |
| 1–4 June 2020 | Eurosondagem | 4 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 2–10 |
| 16–24 May 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
10 | 8–12 | 8–14 | 6–14 | 5–14 |
| 17–20 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 4 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| 5–9 May 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
11 | 9–13 | 8–14 | 7–16 | 5–17 |
| 4–7 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 4 | 3–6 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 2–9 |
| 15–26 April 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
11 | 9–14 | 9–16 | 8–17 | 7–20 |
| 9–14 April 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
11 | 11–15 | 10–18 | 9–21 | 8–25 |
| 29 March–2 April 2020 | Eurosondagem | 4 | 3–6 | 2–7 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| 13–21 March 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
14 | 11–18 | 11–18 | 9–20 | 8–23 |
| 13–19 March 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
17 | 14–23 | 14–24 | 12–26 | 11–27 |
| 1–5 March 2020 | Eurosondagem | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–6 | 1–8 |
| 14–18 February 2020 | Aximage | 6 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 2–11 |
| 11–17 February 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
11 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–17 | 4–22 |
| 2–6 February 2020 | Eurosondagem | 2 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 22 January–5 February 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 11 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 6–13 | 4–14 |
| 19–24 January 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
|||||
| 5–9 January 2020 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 12–17 December 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
|||||
| 8–12 December 2019 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 20–26 November 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
|||||
| 17–21 November 2019 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 8–11 November 2019 | Aximage | |||||
| 22–28 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Chega.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 98.5% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 7 | 3% | 97% | |
| 8 | 19% | 94% | |
| 9 | 7% | 75% | |
| 10 | 20% | 68% | Median |
| 11 | 26% | 48% | |
| 12 | 4% | 23% | |
| 13 | 5% | 19% | |
| 14 | 6% | 13% | |
| 15 | 4% | 8% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |