Chega

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 1.3% (General Election of 6 October 2019)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 6.4% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–8.9% 4.5–9.3% 4.0–10.0%
24–28 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
5.4% 4.5–6.6% 4.2–6.9% 4.0–7.2% 3.6–7.9%
23–26 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
5.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.8–6.8% 3.6–7.1% 3.2–7.8%
19–26 January 2022 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.5%
22–25 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
6.7% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.7% 5.0–9.0% 4.5–9.8%
21–24 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
7.6% 6.3–9.1% 6.0–9.6% 5.7–10.0% 5.2–10.7%
18–24 January 2022 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias
6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
20–23 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
6.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–22 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
6.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–21 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
6.4% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.3% 4.7–8.7% 4.2–9.4%
16–21 January 2022 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.4–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
17–20 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
6.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–19 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
6.2% 5.2–7.7% 4.8–8.1% 4.6–8.5% 4.1–9.2%
15–18 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
7.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–18 January 2022 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
6.0% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.5–7.8%
14–17 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
7.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–16 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
8.1% 6.8–9.6% 6.4–10.1% 6.1–10.5% 5.6–11.3%
12–15 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
8.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–14 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
7.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–13 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
6.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–12 January 2022 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
9.0% 7.9–10.5% 7.5–10.9% 7.3–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
4–10 January 2022 Intercampus
CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios
7.2% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.1% 5.4–9.5% 4.9–10.2%
6–10 January 2022 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.5% 4.5–8.0%
30 December 2021–9 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
5.7% 4.6–7.1% 4.3–7.5% 4.1–7.8% 3.6–8.6%
28 December 2021–5 January 2022 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
5.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–20 December 2021 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias
7.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6% 5.5–8.9% 5.1–9.5%
7–14 December 2021 Intercampus
CMTV and Correio da Manhã
9.0% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1% 6.9–11.5% 6.3–12.4%
9–13 December 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
6.3% 5.0–8.0% 4.7–8.5% 4.4–8.9% 3.8–9.8%
7–12 December 2021 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
6.2% 5.2–7.7% 4.8–8.1% 4.6–8.4% 4.1–9.2%
10–15 November 2021 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
7.0% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.9% 5.3–9.3% 4.8–10.1%
5–11 November 2021 Intercampus
CMTV and Correio da Manhã
6.4% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.2% 4.7–8.6% 4.2–9.3%
29 October–4 November 2021 CESOP–UCP 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.7% 3.4–7.2%
21 October–1 November 2021 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias
10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.1–12.3% 7.5–13.0%
28–31 October 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
7.7% 6.6–9.1% 6.3–9.4% 6.1–9.8% 5.6–10.5%
18–21 October 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
9.2% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
14–23 September 2021 Intercampus
CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios
8.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–23 September 2021 Eurosondagem
Sol
8.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–19 September 2021 Pitagórica
TVI
7.1% 5.9–8.6% 5.6–9.0% 5.3–9.4% 4.8–10.2%
13–20 August 2021 Intercampus 7.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–19 August 2021 Eurosondagem 9.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–29 July 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
8.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.3%
7–16 July 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
9.1% 7.7–10.7% 7.3–11.2% 7.0–11.6% 6.4–12.5%
10–12 July 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
7.7% 6.6–9.1% 6.3–9.5% 6.0–9.9% 5.5–10.6%
5–8 July 2021 Eurosondagem 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
8–16 June 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
10.0% 8.6–11.8% 8.2–12.3% 7.9–12.7% 7.3–13.6%
31 May–3 June 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.9–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
26–30 May 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
7.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7% 5.5–9.0% 5.0–9.7%
10–13 May 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
5–11 May 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
8.3% 7.1–10.0% 6.7–10.4% 6.4–10.8% 5.8–11.6%
3–7 May 2021 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
6.0% 5.2–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
22–25 April 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
7.2% 6.2–8.5% 5.9–8.9% 5.7–9.2% 5.2–9.9%
7–13 April 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
9.4% 8.0–11.1% 7.6–11.5% 7.3–11.9% 6.7–12.8%
5–13 April 2021 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias
6.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.5% 4.5–7.8% 4.1–8.5%
5–8 April 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
7.7% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
24–27 March 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
8.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–10 March 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
8.9% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1% 6.9–11.5% 6.3–12.3%
1–4 March 2021 Eurosondagem 7.5% 6.6–8.7% 6.3–9.0% 6.1–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
17–20 February 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
6.4% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0% 5.0–8.4% 4.5–9.0%
8–13 February 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
7.2% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.2% 5.4–9.6% 4.9–10.3%
8–11 February 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.1% 5.5–9.7%
24 January 2021 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
9.0% 8.5–9.6% 8.3–9.7% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1%
7–18 January 2021 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
6.8% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.7% 5.1–9.1% 4.6–9.8%
9–15 January 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
7.6% 6.4–9.1% 6.0–9.5% 5.7–9.9% 5.2–10.7%
11–14 January 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
11–14 January 2021 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
29 December 2020–10 January 2021 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
5.9% 4.8–7.3% 4.5–7.7% 4.3–8.0% 3.8–8.7%
4–7 January 2021 Intercampus 9.1% 7.8–10.8% 7.4–11.3% 7.1–11.7% 6.5–12.5%
22 December 2020–3 January 2021 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
8.4% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.5% 6.5–10.9% 5.9–11.7%
17–27 December 2020 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
9.1% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.2% 7.1–11.6% 6.5–12.4%
19–22 December 2020 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
7.8% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.5% 6.1–9.8% 5.6–10.5%
17–20 December 2020 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
8.4% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.5% 6.5–10.9% 5.9–11.7%
14–18 December 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
7.6% 6.4–9.2% 6.1–9.6% 5.8–10.0% 5.2–10.8%
10–13 December 2020 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
8.3% 7.0–9.8% 6.7–10.3% 6.4–10.7% 5.8–11.5%
4–11 December 2020 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
6.0% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.4% 4.5–7.9%
7–10 December 2020 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.3%
23–26 November 2020 Aximage 7.6% 6.4–9.1% 6.1–9.5% 5.8–9.9% 5.3–10.6%
11–25 November 2020 ICS/ISCTE 7.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.4–9.0% 5.0–9.6%
9–16 November 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
7.2% 6.1–8.7% 5.7–9.2% 5.4–9.6% 4.9–10.3%
2–5 November 2020 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
5.0% 4.3–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
22–26 October 2020 Aximage 5.5% 4.5–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 4.0–7.4% 3.6–8.1%
6–11 October 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
7.8% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.8% 5.9–10.2% 5.4–10.9%
5–8 October 2020 Eurosondagem 4.8% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.8%
14–24 September 2020 ICS/ISCTE 7.1% 6.1–8.4% 5.8–8.8% 5.5–9.1% 5.1–9.8%
12–15 September 2020 Aximage 6.8% 5.6–8.3% 5.3–8.7% 5.0–9.1% 4.5–9.9%
7–10 September 2020 Eurosondagem 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.4%
4–9 September 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
7.3% 6.1–8.9% 5.8–9.3% 5.5–9.7% 5.0–10.5%
6–11 August 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
7.8% 6.6–9.4% 6.2–9.9% 5.9–10.3% 5.4–11.1%
13–18 July 2020 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.9%
8–13 July 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
6.1% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–8.0% 4.5–8.3% 4.0–9.0%
5–8 July 2020 Aximage
Jornal Económico
5.1% 4.2–6.4% 3.9–6.8% 3.7–7.2% 3.2–7.8%
29 June–2 July 2020 Eurosondagem 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.8% 3.0–6.3%
9–13 June 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
6.7% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.6% 5.0–9.0% 4.5–9.8%
5–8 June 2020 Aximage
Jornal Económico
5.3% 4.1–7.1% 3.7–7.7% 3.4–8.2% 2.9–9.1%
1–4 June 2020 Eurosondagem 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
16–24 May 2020 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias
6.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.1–8.0% 4.9–8.3% 4.4–8.9%
17–20 May 2020 Eurosondagem 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.6%
5–9 May 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
6.8% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.7% 5.0–9.0% 4.6–9.8%
4–7 May 2020 Eurosondagem 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
15–26 April 2020 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias
7.3% 6.1–8.8% 5.7–9.3% 5.5–9.6% 4.9–10.4%
9–14 April 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
7.9% 6.6–9.4% 6.3–9.9% 6.0–10.3% 5.5–11.1%
29 March–2 April 2020 Eurosondagem 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
13–21 March 2020 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias
8.1% 6.8–9.7% 6.5–10.2% 6.2–10.6% 5.6–11.4%
13–19 March 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
8.7% 7.4–10.3% 7.0–10.8% 6.7–11.2% 6.1–12.0%
1–5 March 2020 Eurosondagem 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
14–18 February 2020 Aximage 4.3% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6% 3.1–5.9% 2.8–6.4%
11–17 February 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
6.8% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.7% 5.1–9.1% 4.6–9.9%
2–6 February 2020 Eurosondagem 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
22 January–5 February 2020 ICS/ISCTE 6.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.6% 4.6–7.9% 4.1–8.5%
19–24 January 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
6.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–9 January 2020 Eurosondagem 2.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–17 December 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
5.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–12 December 2019 Eurosondagem 1.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–26 November 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
4.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17–21 November 2019 Eurosondagem 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–11 November 2019 Aximage 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–28 October 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
2.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Chega.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.5–1.5% 0% 100% Last Result
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0.1% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 3% 99.9%  
4.5–5.5% 17% 97%  
5.5–6.5% 35% 80% Median
6.5–7.5% 22% 45%  
7.5–8.5% 15% 23%  
8.5–9.5% 7% 8%  
9.5–10.5% 1.3% 1.4%  
10.5–11.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 1 seats (General Election of 6 October 2019)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 10 8–14 7–15 5–17 4–19
24–28 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
8 6–11 4–11 4–11 4–13
23–26 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
8 4–11 4–11 4–11 3–13
19–26 January 2022 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
10 8–11 8–11 7–11 7–11
22–25 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
11 9–14 8–15 8–18 5–19
21–24 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
12 11–17 10–19 9–20 8–24
18–24 January 2022 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias
10 8–11 7–11 5–12 4–14
20–23 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
         
19–22 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
         
18–21 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
11 8–13 7–14 6–15 4–18
16–21 January 2022 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
13 11–17 11–17 11–18 9–21
17–20 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
         
16–19 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
10 8–11 6–13 5–14 4–17
15–18 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
         
12–18 January 2022 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
10 8–11 7–11 7–11 5–12
14–17 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
         
13–16 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
13 11–18 10–19 9–20 8–23
12–15 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
         
11–14 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
         
10–13 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
         
6–12 January 2022 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
16 13–21 11–22 11–23 11–26
4–10 January 2022 Intercampus
CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios
11 8–14 8–14 8–17 6–20
6–10 January 2022 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
10 8–11 7–11 7–11 4–14
30 December 2021–9 January 2022 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
8 5–11 4–11 4–13 3–14
28 December 2021–5 January 2022 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
         
10–20 December 2021 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias
11 10–14 9–14 8–15 8–18
7–14 December 2021 Intercampus
CMTV and Correio da Manhã
17 12–23 11–25 11–26 10–28
9–13 December 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
11 7–13 6–14 4–15 4–18
7–12 December 2021 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
10 7–11 6–13 5–14 4–16
10–15 November 2021 Pitagórica
CNN Portugal and TVI
11 9–14 8–15 8–18 6–19
5–11 November 2021 Intercampus
CMTV and Correio da Manhã
11 8–12 7–13 6–13 4–15
29 October–4 November 2021 CESOP–UCP 7 4–10 4–10 3–11 3–11
21 October–1 November 2021 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias
20 16–24 14–26 14–27 12–29
28–31 October 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
13 11–17 10–19 10–20 8–22
18–21 October 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
17 14–21 12–23 11–23 11–25
14–23 September 2021 Intercampus
CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios
         
20–23 September 2021 Eurosondagem
Sol
         
10–19 September 2021 Pitagórica
TVI
11 8–14 8–16 8–18 6–20
13–20 August 2021 Intercampus          
16–19 August 2021 Eurosondagem          
26–29 July 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
14 12–19 11–20 11–22 11–23
7–16 July 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
16 13–23 11–25 11–26 11–28
10–12 July 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
13 11–17 10–19 9–20 8–23
5–8 July 2021 Eurosondagem 17 13–21 12–22 11–23 11–24
8–16 June 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
22 14–25 13–26 12–27 11–30
31 May–3 June 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
14 11–18 11–20 11–21 11–23
26–30 May 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
11 9–14 8–14 8–16 8–19
10–13 May 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
14 11–17 11–18 11–20 10–22
5–11 May 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
15 11–21 11–24 10–25 9–25
3–7 May 2021 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
9 7–11 6–11 6–12 4–14
22–25 April 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
11 10–14 9–14 9–17 8–18
7–13 April 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
18 13–24 12–25 11–25 11–28
5–13 April 2021 ICS/ISCTE
Expresso and SIC Notícias
10 7–11 6–12 5–13 4–14
5–8 April 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
13 11–17 11–18 11–19 9–22
24–27 March 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
         
4–10 March 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
17 13–23 11–24 11–25 10–27
1–4 March 2021 Eurosondagem 13 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–18
17–20 February 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
10 8–13 8–14 7–14 5–16
8–13 February 2021 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
13 10–15 8–17 8–19 6–21
8–11 February 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
12 11–14 10–16 9–17 8–19
24 January 2021 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
17 14–19 14–19 14–20 14–21
7–18 January 2021 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
11 9–14 8–15 7–17 5–19
9–15 January 2021 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
13 10–16 9–18 8–19 8–22
11–14 January 2021 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
9 7–11 5–11 4–12 4–13
11–14 January 2021 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
13 11–14 11–15 11–16 11–18
29 December 2020–10 January 2021 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
9 6–11 4–12 4–14 3–14
4–7 January 2021 Intercampus 16 13–23 11–24 11–25 11–27
22 December 2020–3 January 2021 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
14 11–20 11–21 11–22 9–26
17–27 December 2020 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
17 13–22 12–23 11–25 11–28
19–22 December 2020 Aximage
Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
14 11–16 11–18 9–18 8–22
17–20 December 2020 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
14 11–19 11–21 11–22 9–25
14–18 December 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
14 11–18 10–20 9–21 8–24
10–13 December 2020 Pitagórica
Observador and TVI
14 11–18 11–20 11–22 8–24
4–11 December 2020 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
10 7–11 7–11 6–11 4–13
7–10 December 2020 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
8 4–11 4–11 4–11 4–12
23–26 November 2020 Aximage 13 11–16 10–18 8–19 8–23
11–25 November 2020 ICS/ISCTE 11 10–14 8–16 8–16 7–18
9–16 November 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
11 10–15 9–17 8–19 7–22
2–5 November 2020 Eurosondagem
Porto Canal and Sol
8 4–10 4–11 4–11 3–11
22–26 October 2020 Aximage 8 5–11 4–11 4–11 3–14
6–11 October 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
13 11–18 11–19 10–20 8–23
5–8 October 2020 Eurosondagem 7 4–8 4–10 4–11 3–11
14–24 September 2020 ICS/ISCTE          
12–15 September 2020 Aximage 11 8–14 8–14 8–15 6–20
7–10 September 2020 Eurosondagem 7 4–8 4–8 3–8 3–11
4–9 September 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
11 10–16 8–18 8–19 8–23
6–11 August 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
12 11–15 10–18 8–19 8–22
13–18 July 2020 CESOP–UCP
Público and RTP
11 10–14 9–14 9–14 8–15
8–13 July 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
11 7–11 6–13 5–14 4–15
5–8 July 2020 Aximage
Jornal Económico
8 5–11 4–11 3–11 3–13
29 June–2 July 2020 Eurosondagem 5 4–8 3–9 3–9 2–11
9–13 June 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
11 8–14 8–14 6–14 5–17
5–8 June 2020 Aximage
Jornal Económico
8 4–11 3–14 3–16 2–17
1–4 June 2020 Eurosondagem 4 3–8 3–8 3–8 2–10
16–24 May 2020 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias
10 8–12 8–14 6–14 5–14
17–20 May 2020 Eurosondagem 4 4–6 4–7 4–8 3–8
5–9 May 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
11 9–13 8–14 7–16 5–17
4–7 May 2020 Eurosondagem 4 3–6 3–8 3–8 2–9
15–26 April 2020 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias
11 9–14 9–16 8–17 7–20
9–14 April 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
11 11–15 10–18 9–21 8–25
29 March–2 April 2020 Eurosondagem 4 3–6 2–7 2–8 2–8
13–21 March 2020 Pitagórica
Jornal de Notícias
14 11–18 11–18 9–20 8–23
13–19 March 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
17 14–23 14–24 12–26 11–27
1–5 March 2020 Eurosondagem 3 2–4 2–4 2–6 1–8
14–18 February 2020 Aximage 6 4–8 3–8 3–9 2–11
11–17 February 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
11 9–14 8–14 8–17 4–22
2–6 February 2020 Eurosondagem 2 1–3 1–4 1–4 1–4
22 January–5 February 2020 ICS/ISCTE 11 7–11 7–12 6–13 4–14
19–24 January 2020 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
         
5–9 January 2020 Eurosondagem          
12–17 December 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
         
8–12 December 2019 Eurosondagem          
20–26 November 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
         
17–21 November 2019 Eurosondagem          
8–11 November 2019 Aximage          
22–28 October 2019 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
         

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Chega.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 1.4% 99.9%  
5 1.1% 98.5%  
6 0.5% 97%  
7 3% 97%  
8 19% 94%  
9 7% 75%  
10 20% 68% Median
11 26% 48%  
12 4% 23%  
13 5% 19%  
14 6% 13%  
15 4% 8%  
16 1.1% 4%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.6% 1.2%  
19 0.2% 0.6%  
20 0.1% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%