Iniciativa Liberal
Voting Intentions
Last result: 1.3% (General Election of 6 October 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.5% | 2.9–6.7% | 2.5–7.0% | 2.3–7.3% | 1.9–7.9% |
| 24–28 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
5.1% | 4.2–6.3% | 4.0–6.6% | 3.8–7.0% | 3.4–7.6% |
| 23–26 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
4.3% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.1–5.9% | 2.9–6.2% | 2.6–6.9% |
| 19–26 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.5% |
| 22–25 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
3.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.7–5.3% | 2.5–5.6% | 2.2–6.2% |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
3.1% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.6% | 2.0–4.8% | 1.7–5.4% |
| 18–24 January 2022 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 20–23 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
4.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–22 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
5.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–21 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
5.8% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.4–7.6% | 4.2–7.9% | 3.7–8.6% |
| 16–21 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.5% |
| 17–20 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–19 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
5.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.0–7.0% | 3.7–7.3% | 3.3–8.0% |
| 15–18 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
4.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–18 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.7–6.7% |
| 14–17 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
4.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–16 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
4.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.5–7.0% | 3.1–7.7% |
| 12–15 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
4.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–14 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
4.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–13 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
5.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–12 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
3.7% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.6–5.3% | 2.3–5.8% |
| 4–10 January 2022 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
5.5% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.2–7.3% | 4.0–7.6% | 3.5–8.3% |
| 6–10 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.8–5.7% |
| 30 December 2021–9 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
5.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 3.9–6.9% | 3.7–7.3% | 3.2–8.0% |
| 28 December 2021–5 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–20 December 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| 7–14 December 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
6.5% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.0–8.4% | 4.8–8.7% | 4.3–9.5% |
| 9–13 December 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
3.8% | 2.9–5.2% | 2.6–5.7% | 2.4–6.0% | 2.0–6.8% |
| 7–12 December 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
5.9% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.3–8.1% | 3.9–8.8% |
| 10–15 November 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
4.2% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.0–5.7% | 2.9–6.0% | 2.5–6.7% |
| 5–11 November 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
4.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.1–5.8% | 2.9–6.2% | 2.5–6.8% |
| 29 October–4 November 2021 | CESOP–UCP | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 21 October–1 November 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.7% |
| 28–31 October 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
4.7% | 3.9–5.8% | 3.7–6.2% | 3.5–6.4% | 3.1–7.0% |
| 18–21 October 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
5.5% | 4.7–6.6% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.7% |
| 14–23 September 2021 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
5.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–23 September 2021 | Eurosondagem Sol |
5.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–19 September 2021 | Pitagórica TVI |
4.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.4% | 3.3–6.8% | 2.9–7.4% |
| 13–20 August 2021 | Intercampus | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–19 August 2021 | Eurosondagem | 4.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–29 July 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| 7–16 July 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3.1% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.6% | 2.0–4.8% | 1.7–5.4% |
| 10–12 July 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
5.5% | 4.6–6.7% | 4.3–7.1% | 4.1–7.4% | 3.7–8.0% |
| 5–8 July 2021 | Eurosondagem | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| 8–16 June 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6.4% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.0–8.3% | 4.7–8.7% | 4.2–9.4% |
| 31 May–3 June 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
2.7% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.7–4.3% |
| 26–30 May 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
5.2% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.0–6.6% | 3.8–6.9% | 3.4–7.5% |
| 10–13 May 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| 5–11 May 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
4.3% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.1–5.9% | 2.9–6.2% | 2.5–6.8% |
| 3–7 May 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.5–6.9% |
| 22–25 April 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
4.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.3–7.2% |
| 7–13 April 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
4.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.5–7.0% | 3.1–7.6% |
| 5–13 April 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| 5–8 April 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
2.5% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.7–3.6% | 1.4–4.0% |
| 24–27 March 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
4.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–10 March 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
5.4% | 4.4–6.7% | 4.1–7.1% | 3.8–7.5% | 3.4–8.2% |
| 1–4 March 2021 | Eurosondagem | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.5% |
| 17–20 February 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
5.7% | 4.8–6.9% | 4.5–7.2% | 4.3–7.5% | 3.9–8.1% |
| 8–13 February 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
5.6% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.3–7.4% | 4.0–7.7% | 3.6–8.4% |
| 8–11 February 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| 24 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
7.0% | 6.5–7.5% | 6.4–7.7% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% |
| 7–18 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
4.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.5–6.9% | 3.1–7.6% |
| 9–15 January 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
3.5% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.9% | 2.3–5.2% | 2.0–5.8% |
| 11–14 January 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| 11–14 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| 29 December 2020–10 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
4.1% | 3.3–5.3% | 3.0–5.7% | 2.8–6.0% | 2.5–6.6% |
| 4–7 January 2021 | Intercampus | 3.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.7–5.4% | 2.6–5.7% | 2.2–6.3% |
| 22 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
2.9% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.2% | 1.8–4.5% | 1.5–5.0% |
| 17–27 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
3.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.8% | 2.2–5.1% | 1.9–5.6% |
| 19–22 December 2020 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
3.4% | 2.7–4.4% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.4–5.0% | 2.1–5.5% |
| 17–20 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
2.4% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.4–3.9% | 1.2–4.4% |
| 14–18 December 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
4.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.3–6.1% | 3.1–6.4% | 2.7–7.1% |
| 10–13 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
1.4% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.8–2.7% | 0.6–3.2% |
| 4–11 December 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 7–10 December 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| 23–26 November 2020 | Aximage | 2.2% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.4% | 1.3–3.6% | 1.1–4.1% |
| 11–25 November 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| 9–16 November 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3.4% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.8% | 2.2–5.1% | 1.9–5.7% |
| 2–5 November 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 22–26 October 2020 | Aximage | 3.2% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.1–4.8% | 1.8–5.3% |
| 6–11 October 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2.4% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.7% | 1.5–4.0% | 1.2–4.5% |
| 5–8 October 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| 14–24 September 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.7% |
| 12–15 September 2020 | Aximage | 2.7% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.0% | 1.6–4.3% | 1.4–4.8% |
| 7–10 September 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 4–9 September 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2.1% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.4–3.4% | 1.2–3.6% | 1.0–4.1% |
| 6–11 August 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2.8% | 2.1–3.9% | 1.9–4.2% | 1.8–4.5% | 1.5–5.1% |
| 13–18 July 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.3% |
| 8–13 July 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2.7% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.4% | 1.4–4.9% |
| 5–8 July 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
2.1% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.5% | 1.0–4.0% |
| 29 June–2 July 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| 9–13 June 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2.0% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.1–3.4% | 0.9–3.9% |
| 5–8 June 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
1.4% | 0.9–2.6% | 0.7–2.9% | 0.6–3.2% | 0.4–3.9% |
| 1–4 June 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| 16–24 May 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
1.6% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.8% | 0.8–3.2% |
| 17–20 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1.2% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% |
| 5–9 May 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3.2% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–4.9% | 1.8–5.5% |
| 4–7 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| 15–26 April 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
2.6% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.0% | 1.6–4.3% | 1.4–4.8% |
| 9–14 April 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2.4% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.7% | 1.5–3.9% | 1.2–4.5% |
| 29 March–2 April 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| 13–21 March 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
2.0% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.4% | 0.9–3.9% |
| 13–19 March 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2.3% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.5–3.6% | 1.4–3.8% | 1.1–4.3% |
| 1–5 March 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.2% |
| 14–18 February 2020 | Aximage | 2.5% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.6–3.8% | 1.4–4.3% |
| 11–17 February 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2.9% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.3% | 1.9–4.6% | 1.6–5.2% |
| 2–6 February 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 22 January–5 February 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.7% |
| 19–24 January 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–9 January 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 December 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–12 December 2019 | Eurosondagem | 1.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–26 November 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–21 November 2019 | Eurosondagem | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–11 November 2019 | Aximage | 1.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–28 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
0.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Iniciativa Liberal.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1.5–2.5% | 5% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 13% | 95% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 8% | 82% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 24% | 74% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 36% | 49% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 12% | 13% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 1 seats (General Election of 6 October 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 8 | 3–12 | 3–12 | 3–12 | 2–14 |
| 24–28 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
7 | 6–10 | 6–12 | 5–12 | 4–14 |
| 23–26 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6 | 4–8 | 4–10 | 3–11 | 3–12 |
| 19–26 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
9 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 6–13 |
| 22–25 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
5 | 3–6 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–11 |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 1–9 |
| 18–24 January 2022 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
10 | 6–12 | 6–13 | 6–14 | 6–14 |
| 20–23 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 19–22 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 18–21 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
9 | 6–13 | 6–14 | 6–14 | 5–15 |
| 16–21 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| 17–20 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 16–19 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
8 | 6–12 | 6–12 | 5–12 | 4–14 |
| 15–18 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 12–18 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| 14–17 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 13–16 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6 | 5–11 | 4–12 | 4–12 | 3–13 |
| 12–15 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 11–14 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 10–13 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 6–12 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–9 |
| 4–10 January 2022 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
8 | 6–12 | 6–12 | 5–13 | 4–14 |
| 6–10 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 | 3–9 |
| 30 December 2021–9 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
7 | 6–12 | 5–12 | 4–12 | 4–14 |
| 28 December 2021–5 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
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| 10–20 December 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
5 | 4–6 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–10 |
| 7–14 December 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
12 | 8–14 | 6–14 | 6–15 | 6–17 |
| 9–13 December 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
5 | 3–7 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 3–12 |
| 7–12 December 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
10 | 6–12 | 6–14 | 6–14 | 5–15 |
| 10–15 November 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
6 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 3–10 | 3–12 |
| 5–11 November 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
6 | 4–7 | 4–9 | 3–10 | 3–12 |
| 29 October–4 November 2021 | CESOP–UCP | 6 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 4–12 | 4–12 |
| 21 October–1 November 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| 28–31 October 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
6 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 4–12 | 4–12 |
| 18–21 October 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
8 | 6–12 | 6–12 | 6–12 | 5–13 |
| 14–23 September 2021 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 20–23 September 2021 | Eurosondagem Sol |
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| 10–19 September 2021 | Pitagórica TVI |
6 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 4–12 | 3–14 |
| 13–20 August 2021 | Intercampus | |||||
| 16–19 August 2021 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 26–29 July 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 7–16 July 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 1–8 |
| 10–12 July 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
10 | 6–12 | 5–12 | 5–12 | 5–14 |
| 5–8 July 2021 | Eurosondagem | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| 8–16 June 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
11 | 6–14 | 6–14 | 6–14 | 6–17 |
| 31 May–3 June 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| 26–30 May 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
7 | 6–12 | 6–12 | 5–12 | 4–13 |
| 10–13 May 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| 5–11 May 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6 | 4–10 | 3–10 | 3–10 | 3–12 |
| 3–7 May 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–12 | 4–12 |
| 22–25 April 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
6 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–12 | 4–12 |
| 7–13 April 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6 | 5–11 | 5–12 | 4–12 | 3–14 |
| 5–13 April 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 5–8 April 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| 24–27 March 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
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| 4–10 March 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
8 | 6–12 | 5–12 | 5–14 | 4–14 |
| 1–4 March 2021 | Eurosondagem | 3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 17–20 February 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
10 | 6–12 | 6–13 | 6–14 | 6–14 |
| 8–13 February 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
8 | 6–12 | 6–12 | 5–14 | 4–14 |
| 8–11 February 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| 24 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
12 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 10–14 |
| 7–18 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
6 | 5–10 | 5–12 | 4–12 | 3–14 |
| 9–15 January 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–9 |
| 11–14 January 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
1 | 1–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 11–14 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 29 December 2020–10 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
6 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 3–10 | 3–12 |
| 4–7 January 2021 | Intercampus | 5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–9 | 3–11 |
| 22 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
3 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 1–6 | 1–7 |
| 17–27 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–9 |
| 19–22 December 2020 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–8 |
| 17–20 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
3 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| 14–18 December 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6 | 4–9 | 4–10 | 4–12 | 3–13 |
| 10–13 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
1 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 4–11 December 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 4–12 |
| 7–10 December 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| 23–26 November 2020 | Aximage | 3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| 11–25 November 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| 9–16 November 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–10 |
| 2–5 November 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–3 |
| 22–26 October 2020 | Aximage | 4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 1–7 |
| 6–11 October 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| 5–8 October 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 14–24 September 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | |||||
| 12–15 September 2020 | Aximage | 3 | 3–5 | 2–6 | 1–6 | 1–6 |
| 7–10 September 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| 4–9 September 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 0–6 |
| 6–11 August 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–6 | 1–6 |
| 13–18 July 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| 8–13 July 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 1–6 | 1–6 |
| 5–8 July 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
3 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| 29 June–2 July 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 9–13 June 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 0–5 |
| 5–8 June 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
1 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 1–4 June 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| 16–24 May 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
1 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| 17–20 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 5–9 May 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 1–8 |
| 4–7 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 15–26 April 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
3 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–6 | 1–6 |
| 9–14 April 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| 29 March–2 April 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 13–21 March 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
2 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 0–5 |
| 13–19 March 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
1 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| 1–5 March 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 14–18 February 2020 | Aximage | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| 11–17 February 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
4 | 3–5 | 2–6 | 1–6 | 1–6 |
| 2–6 February 2020 | Eurosondagem | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 22 January–5 February 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| 19–24 January 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 5–9 January 2020 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 12–17 December 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 8–12 December 2019 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 20–26 November 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 17–21 November 2019 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 8–11 November 2019 | Aximage | |||||
| 22–28 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Iniciativa Liberal.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 11% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 8% | 89% | |
| 5 | 2% | 81% | |
| 6 | 17% | 79% | |
| 7 | 6% | 62% | |
| 8 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 48% | |
| 10 | 9% | 31% | |
| 11 | 7% | 22% | |
| 12 | 13% | 15% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |