Partido Social Democrata
Voting Intentions
Last result: 27.8% (General Election of 6 October 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 32.9% | 29.2–35.2% | 28.1–35.9% | 27.2–36.5% | 25.8–37.6% |
| 24–28 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
32.9% | 30.8–35.1% | 30.2–35.8% | 29.6–36.3% | 28.6–37.4% |
| 23–26 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
31.2% | 28.9–33.7% | 28.3–34.4% | 27.7–35.1% | 26.6–36.3% |
| 19–26 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
33.0% | 31.7–34.3% | 31.4–34.7% | 31.0–35.0% | 30.4–35.6% |
| 22–25 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
30.9% | 28.6–33.4% | 27.9–34.1% | 27.4–34.7% | 26.3–35.9% |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
31.4% | 29.1–33.9% | 28.4–34.6% | 27.8–35.2% | 26.7–36.4% |
| 18–24 January 2022 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
33.0% | 31.1–34.9% | 30.6–35.5% | 30.1–36.0% | 29.3–36.9% |
| 20–23 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
31.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–22 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
33.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–21 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
34.5% | 32.1–37.1% | 31.4–37.8% | 30.9–38.4% | 29.7–39.6% |
| 16–21 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
34.4% | 32.5–36.4% | 31.9–37.0% | 31.5–37.5% | 30.6–38.4% |
| 17–20 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
33.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–19 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
32.9% | 30.5–35.4% | 29.8–36.1% | 29.3–36.7% | 28.2–38.0% |
| 15–18 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
30.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–18 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
33.0% | 31.4–34.6% | 31.0–35.0% | 30.6–35.4% | 29.9–36.2% |
| 14–17 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
30.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–16 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
28.8% | 26.5–31.2% | 25.9–31.9% | 25.3–32.5% | 24.3–33.7% |
| 12–15 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
29.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–14 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
29.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–13 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
29.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–12 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
28.5% | 26.5–30.6% | 26.0–31.2% | 25.5–31.7% | 24.6–32.7% |
| 4–10 January 2022 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
29.3% | 27.0–31.7% | 26.4–32.4% | 25.8–33.0% | 24.7–34.2% |
| 6–10 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
30.0% | 28.4–31.7% | 27.9–32.2% | 27.5–32.6% | 26.8–33.5% |
| 30 December 2021–9 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
30.0% | 27.7–32.5% | 27.0–33.2% | 26.5–33.8% | 25.4–35.0% |
| 28 December 2021–5 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
32.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–20 December 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
31.0% | 29.0–33.0% | 28.5–33.6% | 28.0–34.1% | 27.1–35.1% |
| 7–14 December 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
26.9% | 24.6–29.3% | 24.0–29.9% | 23.5–30.6% | 22.4–31.7% |
| 9–13 December 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
33.2% | 30.4–36.1% | 29.6–37.0% | 29.0–37.7% | 27.7–39.1% |
| 7–12 December 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
31.7% | 29.4–34.1% | 28.7–34.8% | 28.2–35.4% | 27.1–36.6% |
| 10–15 November 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
32.2% | 29.8–34.6% | 29.2–35.3% | 28.6–35.9% | 27.5–37.1% |
| 5–11 November 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
28.1% | 25.9–30.5% | 25.2–31.2% | 24.7–31.8% | 23.6–33.0% |
| 29 October–4 November 2021 | CESOP–UCP | 30.0% | 28.0–32.0% | 27.5–32.6% | 27.0–33.1% | 26.1–34.1% |
| 21 October–1 November 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
26.0% | 24.1–28.1% | 23.5–28.7% | 23.1–29.2% | 22.2–30.2% |
| 28–31 October 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
24.4% | 22.5–26.4% | 22.0–27.0% | 21.6–27.5% | 20.7–28.5% |
| 18–21 October 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
27.5% | 25.8–29.4% | 25.3–29.9% | 24.9–30.3% | 24.1–31.2% |
| 14–23 September 2021 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
24.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–23 September 2021 | Eurosondagem Sol |
27.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–19 September 2021 | Pitagórica TVI |
25.1% | 23.0–27.5% | 22.4–28.2% | 21.8–28.7% | 20.8–29.9% |
| 13–20 August 2021 | Intercampus | 25.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–19 August 2021 | Eurosondagem | 27.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–29 July 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
27.3% | 25.6–29.2% | 25.1–29.7% | 24.7–30.1% | 23.9–31.0% |
| 7–16 July 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.4% | 21.3–25.7% | 20.7–26.4% | 20.2–26.9% | 19.2–28.1% |
| 10–12 July 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
25.2% | 23.2–27.3% | 22.7–27.8% | 22.2–28.4% | 21.3–29.4% |
| 5–8 July 2021 | Eurosondagem | 27.3% | 25.6–29.1% | 25.1–29.7% | 24.6–30.1% | 23.8–31.0% |
| 8–16 June 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
22.4% | 20.3–24.6% | 19.7–25.3% | 19.2–25.9% | 18.3–27.0% |
| 31 May–3 June 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
27.2% | 25.5–29.1% | 25.0–29.6% | 24.6–30.1% | 23.8–30.9% |
| 26–30 May 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
24.0% | 22.1–26.0% | 21.6–26.6% | 21.2–27.1% | 20.3–28.1% |
| 10–13 May 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
27.4% | 25.6–29.2% | 25.1–29.8% | 24.7–30.2% | 23.9–31.1% |
| 5–11 May 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
21.8% | 19.7–24.0% | 19.2–24.7% | 18.7–25.2% | 17.7–26.3% |
| 3–7 May 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
28.0% | 26.3–29.7% | 25.8–30.2% | 25.4–30.7% | 24.6–31.5% |
| 22–25 April 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
26.1% | 24.2–28.2% | 23.7–28.7% | 23.3–29.2% | 22.4–30.2% |
| 7–13 April 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.3% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.6–26.3% | 20.1–26.8% | 19.2–28.0% |
| 5–13 April 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
29.1% | 27.1–31.2% | 26.5–31.8% | 26.0–32.3% | 25.1–33.3% |
| 5–8 April 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
27.8% | 26.1–29.7% | 25.6–30.2% | 25.2–30.7% | 24.4–31.6% |
| 24–27 March 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
23.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–10 March 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.6% | 21.5–25.9% | 20.9–26.5% | 20.4–27.1% | 19.4–28.2% |
| 1–4 March 2021 | Eurosondagem | 28.2% | 26.4–30.1% | 26.0–30.6% | 25.5–31.1% | 24.7–32.0% |
| 17–20 February 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
26.5% | 24.6–28.6% | 24.1–29.1% | 23.6–29.6% | 22.7–30.7% |
| 8–13 February 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
24.6% | 22.5–27.0% | 21.9–27.6% | 21.4–28.2% | 20.4–29.4% |
| 8–11 February 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
27.2% | 25.5–29.1% | 25.0–29.6% | 24.6–30.0% | 23.7–30.9% |
| 24 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
23.0% | 22.2–23.8% | 22.0–24.1% | 21.8–24.2% | 21.4–24.6% |
| 7–18 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
25.6% | 23.5–27.9% | 22.8–28.6% | 22.3–29.2% | 21.3–30.3% |
| 9–15 January 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
26.6% | 24.4–29.0% | 23.8–29.6% | 23.3–30.2% | 22.3–31.3% |
| 11–14 January 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
28.0% | 26.3–29.9% | 25.8–30.4% | 25.3–30.8% | 24.5–31.7% |
| 11–14 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
28.0% | 26.7–29.3% | 26.4–29.7% | 26.1–30.0% | 25.5–30.6% |
| 29 December 2020–10 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
28.0% | 25.8–30.4% | 25.1–31.0% | 24.6–31.6% | 23.6–32.8% |
| 4–7 January 2021 | Intercampus | 24.0% | 21.9–26.4% | 21.3–27.1% | 20.8–27.6% | 19.8–28.8% |
| 22 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
26.2% | 24.1–28.6% | 23.5–29.2% | 22.9–29.8% | 21.9–31.0% |
| 17–27 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
28.0% | 25.8–30.4% | 25.1–31.0% | 24.6–31.6% | 23.6–32.8% |
| 19–22 December 2020 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
25.4% | 23.5–27.4% | 23.0–28.0% | 22.5–28.5% | 21.6–29.5% |
| 17–20 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
28.5% | 26.2–30.8% | 25.6–31.5% | 25.1–32.1% | 24.0–33.3% |
| 14–18 December 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.5% | 21.4–25.9% | 20.8–26.5% | 20.3–27.1% | 19.4–28.2% |
| 10–13 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
26.1% | 23.9–28.4% | 23.3–29.1% | 22.8–29.6% | 21.8–30.8% |
| 4–11 December 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
30.0% | 28.5–31.7% | 28.0–32.2% | 27.6–32.6% | 26.9–33.4% |
| 7–10 December 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
29.4% | 27.6–31.3% | 27.1–31.8% | 26.7–32.3% | 25.8–33.2% |
| 23–26 November 2020 | Aximage | 24.0% | 21.9–26.2% | 21.3–26.8% | 20.8–27.4% | 19.9–28.5% |
| 11–25 November 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 25.1% | 23.2–27.1% | 22.6–27.7% | 22.2–28.2% | 21.3–29.2% |
| 9–16 November 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
24.1% | 22.0–26.4% | 21.4–27.1% | 20.9–27.6% | 19.9–28.8% |
| 2–5 November 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
29.7% | 27.9–31.6% | 27.4–32.1% | 26.9–32.6% | 26.1–33.5% |
| 22–26 October 2020 | Aximage | 27.1% | 25.0–29.3% | 24.4–30.0% | 23.9–30.5% | 22.9–31.6% |
| 6–11 October 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
24.8% | 22.6–27.1% | 22.0–27.7% | 21.5–28.3% | 20.5–29.5% |
| 5–8 October 2020 | Eurosondagem | 29.0% | 27.2–30.9% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.5–32.8% |
| 14–24 September 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 27.2% | 25.3–29.3% | 24.7–29.9% | 24.2–30.4% | 23.3–31.4% |
| 12–15 September 2020 | Aximage | 23.9% | 21.7–26.2% | 21.2–26.9% | 20.6–27.5% | 19.7–28.6% |
| 7–10 September 2020 | Eurosondagem | 28.2% | 26.4–30.0% | 25.9–30.6% | 25.5–31.0% | 24.7–31.9% |
| 4–9 September 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
24.3% | 22.1–26.6% | 21.6–27.3% | 21.0–27.8% | 20.1–29.0% |
| 6–11 August 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
24.8% | 22.6–27.2% | 22.0–27.8% | 21.5–28.4% | 20.5–29.6% |
| 13–18 July 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
26.0% | 24.6–27.5% | 24.1–27.9% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.1–29.0% |
| 8–13 July 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.9% | 21.8–26.2% | 21.2–26.8% | 20.7–27.4% | 19.7–28.5% |
| 5–8 July 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
26.8% | 24.6–29.1% | 24.0–29.8% | 23.4–30.4% | 22.4–31.5% |
| 29 June–2 July 2020 | Eurosondagem | 29.3% | 27.5–31.1% | 27.0–31.7% | 26.6–32.1% | 25.7–33.0% |
| 9–13 June 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
24.1% | 22.0–26.4% | 21.4–27.1% | 20.9–27.7% | 19.9–28.8% |
| 5–8 June 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
25.7% | 22.9–28.8% | 22.1–29.7% | 21.4–30.5% | 20.2–32.0% |
| 1–4 June 2020 | Eurosondagem | 29.3% | 27.5–31.2% | 27.0–31.7% | 26.6–32.2% | 25.7–33.1% |
| 16–24 May 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
24.1% | 22.2–26.1% | 21.7–26.7% | 21.2–27.1% | 20.4–28.1% |
| 17–20 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 30.0% | 28.7–31.3% | 28.4–31.7% | 28.1–32.0% | 27.5–32.6% |
| 5–9 May 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.2% | 21.2–25.5% | 20.6–26.2% | 20.1–26.7% | 19.1–27.8% |
| 4–7 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 29.4% | 27.6–31.2% | 27.1–31.8% | 26.6–32.3% | 25.8–33.2% |
| 15–26 April 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
23.1% | 21.0–25.5% | 20.5–26.1% | 20.0–26.7% | 19.0–27.8% |
| 9–14 April 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.3% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.6–26.2% | 20.1–26.8% | 19.2–27.9% |
| 29 March–2 April 2020 | Eurosondagem | 27.2% | 25.4–29.0% | 25.0–29.6% | 24.5–30.0% | 23.7–30.9% |
| 13–21 March 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
25.1% | 23.0–27.5% | 22.3–28.2% | 21.8–28.7% | 20.8–29.9% |
| 13–19 March 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
21.9% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.3–24.8% | 18.8–25.4% | 17.9–26.5% |
| 1–5 March 2020 | Eurosondagem | 27.4% | 25.7–29.3% | 25.2–29.8% | 24.7–30.2% | 23.9–31.1% |
| 14–18 February 2020 | Aximage | 26.1% | 24.2–28.1% | 23.7–28.7% | 23.2–29.2% | 22.4–30.2% |
| 11–17 February 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
23.8% | 21.7–26.1% | 21.1–26.7% | 20.6–27.3% | 19.6–28.4% |
| 2–6 February 2020 | Eurosondagem | 26.7% | 25.0–28.6% | 24.5–29.1% | 24.1–29.5% | 23.2–30.4% |
| 22 January–5 February 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 28.0% | 26.0–30.1% | 25.5–30.7% | 25.0–31.2% | 24.1–32.3% |
| 19–24 January 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
25.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–9 January 2020 | Eurosondagem | 26.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 December 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
25.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–12 December 2019 | Eurosondagem | 26.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–26 November 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
24.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–21 November 2019 | Eurosondagem | 27.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–11 November 2019 | Aximage | 27.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–28 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
25.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partido Social Democrata.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 28.5–29.5% | 5% | 93% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 6% | 88% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 9% | 82% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 17% | 73% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 21% | 56% | Median |
| 33.5–34.5% | 18% | 35% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 10% | 17% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 5% | 7% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38.5–39.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39.5–40.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 79 seats (General Election of 6 October 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 93 | 80–100 | 76–102 | 73–104 | 68–107 |
| 24–28 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
93 | 86–100 | 84–103 | 83–103 | 80–106 |
| 23–26 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
88 | 80–97 | 78–99 | 77–101 | 74–104 |
| 19–26 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
93 | 87–97 | 85–98 | 85–99 | 83–100 |
| 22–25 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
88 | 79–98 | 78–98 | 76–99 | 73–104 |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
88 | 81–98 | 79–99 | 77–101 | 74–105 |
| 18–24 January 2022 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
94 | 87–101 | 85–102 | 84–103 | 80–106 |
| 20–23 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 19–22 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 18–21 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
101 | 91–107 | 89–108 | 87–109 | 84–111 |
| 16–21 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
98 | 92–104 | 89–105 | 88–106 | 85–108 |
| 17–20 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 16–19 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
92 | 84–99 | 82–102 | 81–104 | 77–109 |
| 15–18 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 12–18 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
91 | 87–98 | 85–99 | 85–100 | 83–102 |
| 14–17 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 13–16 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
77 | 70–84 | 68–86 | 66–88 | 63–92 |
| 12–15 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 11–14 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 10–13 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
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| 6–12 January 2022 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
77 | 71–84 | 69–86 | 68–88 | 66–92 |
| 4–10 January 2022 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
80 | 72–90 | 71–92 | 68–93 | 66–97 |
| 6–10 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
83 | 77–87 | 76–89 | 75–90 | 73–93 |
| 30 December 2021–9 January 2022 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
82 | 75–88 | 72–91 | 71–95 | 67–98 |
| 28 December 2021–5 January 2022 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
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| 10–20 December 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
86 | 80–92 | 78–94 | 76–97 | 74–99 |
| 7–14 December 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
75 | 68–83 | 66–85 | 66–88 | 62–92 |
| 9–13 December 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
93 | 83–102 | 80–104 | 78–105 | 75–108 |
| 7–12 December 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
86 | 80–95 | 78–97 | 77–99 | 73–103 |
| 10–15 November 2021 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal and TVI |
88 | 81–97 | 79–98 | 77–100 | 75–104 |
| 5–11 November 2021 | Intercampus CMTV and Correio da Manhã |
76 | 69–82 | 67–85 | 65–85 | 62–90 |
| 29 October–4 November 2021 | CESOP–UCP | 82 | 76–88 | 75–89 | 73–92 | 70–97 |
| 21 October–1 November 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
70 | 65–78 | 64–79 | 62–81 | 60–84 |
| 28–31 October 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
67 | 61–75 | 58–76 | 57–77 | 55–80 |
| 18–21 October 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
75 | 69–81 | 67–83 | 66–85 | 64–88 |
| 14–23 September 2021 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 20–23 September 2021 | Eurosondagem Sol |
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| 10–19 September 2021 | Pitagórica TVI |
67 | 61–75 | 58–77 | 56–79 | 54–83 |
| 13–20 August 2021 | Intercampus | |||||
| 16–19 August 2021 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 26–29 July 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
75 | 69–79 | 66–80 | 64–82 | 63–86 |
| 7–16 July 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
66 | 59–71 | 57–74 | 57–76 | 53–81 |
| 10–12 July 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
69 | 64–76 | 61–78 | 59–79 | 57–83 |
| 5–8 July 2021 | Eurosondagem | 74 | 68–80 | 67–82 | 65–83 | 63–86 |
| 8–16 June 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
62 | 56–68 | 55–70 | 52–72 | 47–75 |
| 31 May–3 June 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
76 | 70–81 | 68–82 | 67–83 | 63–86 |
| 26–30 May 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
66 | 59–75 | 58–75 | 56–76 | 54–78 |
| 10–13 May 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
75 | 71–81 | 69–83 | 66–84 | 63–88 |
| 5–11 May 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
62 | 54–66 | 53–67 | 52–69 | 47–73 |
| 3–7 May 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
77 | 72–82 | 70–84 | 69–85 | 66–87 |
| 22–25 April 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
71 | 66–77 | 64–79 | 63–82 | 60–84 |
| 7–13 April 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
64 | 57–71 | 56–72 | 55–74 | 51–79 |
| 5–13 April 2021 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
80 | 74–88 | 71–89 | 69–92 | 68–95 |
| 5–8 April 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
78 | 71–84 | 69–84 | 67–86 | 65–88 |
| 24–27 March 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
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| 4–10 March 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
66 | 58–72 | 57–75 | 55–77 | 53–80 |
| 1–4 March 2021 | Eurosondagem | 78 | 74–83 | 72–85 | 70–87 | 66–89 |
| 17–20 February 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
72 | 67–78 | 66–79 | 66–80 | 62–86 |
| 8–13 February 2021 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
69 | 62–77 | 59–78 | 57–79 | 54–83 |
| 8–11 February 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
76 | 70–81 | 69–82 | 67–84 | 64–87 |
| 24 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
66 | 65–67 | 64–68 | 62–69 | 61–70 |
| 7–18 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
70 | 62–76 | 60–77 | 59–79 | 56–83 |
| 9–15 January 2021 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
73 | 67–80 | 63–81 | 61–82 | 58–88 |
| 11–14 January 2021 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
79 | 75–85 | 74–87 | 73–88 | 69–91 |
| 11–14 January 2021 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
75 | 72–80 | 70–81 | 69–82 | 68–84 |
| 29 December 2020–10 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
76 | 68–83 | 65–85 | 63–86 | 61–89 |
| 4–7 January 2021 | Intercampus | 65 | 58–72 | 56–75 | 55–76 | 53–79 |
| 22 December 2020–3 January 2021 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
72 | 64–79 | 62–81 | 61–82 | 56–87 |
| 17–27 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
77 | 70–83 | 68–86 | 66–88 | 63–92 |
| 19–22 December 2020 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
68 | 63–76 | 62–77 | 59–79 | 57–81 |
| 17–20 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
77 | 70–84 | 68–87 | 66–88 | 63–91 |
| 14–18 December 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
66 | 58–73 | 57–75 | 55–77 | 53–81 |
| 10–13 December 2020 | Pitagórica Observador and TVI |
71 | 63–78 | 61–80 | 59–81 | 56–85 |
| 4–11 December 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
81 | 76–87 | 75–89 | 74–90 | 71–93 |
| 7–10 December 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
82 | 77–88 | 75–90 | 74–91 | 72–95 |
| 23–26 November 2020 | Aximage | 67 | 60–74 | 58–76 | 57–77 | 53–81 |
| 11–25 November 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 69 | 63–76 | 61–78 | 60–78 | 58–82 |
| 9–16 November 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
67 | 60–74 | 58–76 | 57–78 | 54–83 |
| 2–5 November 2020 | Eurosondagem Porto Canal and Sol |
82 | 77–88 | 75–89 | 73–90 | 70–95 |
| 22–26 October 2020 | Aximage | 76 | 68–83 | 66–85 | 65–88 | 63–91 |
| 6–11 October 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
68 | 61–75 | 58–77 | 57–79 | 54–82 |
| 5–8 October 2020 | Eurosondagem | 81 | 75–86 | 73–87 | 72–89 | 69–92 |
| 14–24 September 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | |||||
| 12–15 September 2020 | Aximage | 66 | 61–73 | 56–76 | 55–76 | 54–81 |
| 7–10 September 2020 | Eurosondagem | 77 | 74–85 | 73–86 | 70–88 | 69–90 |
| 4–9 September 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
66 | 60–72 | 57–74 | 56–77 | 53–79 |
| 6–11 August 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
67 | 59–73 | 57–75 | 57–76 | 54–79 |
| 13–18 July 2020 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
71 | 68–76 | 66–77 | 64–78 | 62–81 |
| 8–13 July 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
64 | 58–70 | 55–72 | 54–74 | 53–77 |
| 5–8 July 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
67 | 64–73 | 63–80 | 62–83 | 58–87 |
| 29 June–2 July 2020 | Eurosondagem | 81 | 74–86 | 71–88 | 71–89 | 69–95 |
| 9–13 June 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
67 | 58–70 | 55–72 | 55–76 | 53–79 |
| 5–8 June 2020 | Aximage Jornal Económico |
67 | 62–82 | 58–82 | 57–84 | 54–91 |
| 1–4 June 2020 | Eurosondagem | 83 | 79–87 | 76–88 | 75–91 | 72–95 |
| 16–24 May 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
63 | 57–70 | 56–73 | 55–74 | 54–76 |
| 17–20 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 85 | 82–88 | 80–88 | 80–89 | 78–92 |
| 5–9 May 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
61 | 56–69 | 54–69 | 54–71 | 52–76 |
| 4–7 May 2020 | Eurosondagem | 82 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 75–90 | 72–97 |
| 15–26 April 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
62 | 55–68 | 54–70 | 54–72 | 50–76 |
| 9–14 April 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
62 | 57–67 | 56–70 | 54–70 | 53–75 |
| 29 March–2 April 2020 | Eurosondagem | 79 | 72–83 | 68–85 | 67–87 | 66–89 |
| 13–21 March 2020 | Pitagórica Jornal de Notícias |
64 | 59–72 | 57–74 | 55–75 | 54–78 |
| 13–19 March 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
62 | 58–69 | 56–73 | 55–73 | 51–76 |
| 1–5 March 2020 | Eurosondagem | 78 | 76–83 | 70–84 | 69–89 | 68–90 |
| 14–18 February 2020 | Aximage | 78 | 73–84 | 70–86 | 69–88 | 65–94 |
| 11–17 February 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
67 | 59–82 | 58–82 | 58–82 | 52–84 |
| 2–6 February 2020 | Eurosondagem | 75 | 71–80 | 69–82 | 67–83 | 66–86 |
| 22 January–5 February 2020 | ICS/ISCTE | 81 | 71–90 | 71–90 | 70–92 | 68–95 |
| 19–24 January 2020 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 5–9 January 2020 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 12–17 December 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 8–12 December 2019 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 20–26 November 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
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| 17–21 November 2019 | Eurosondagem | |||||
| 8–11 November 2019 | Aximage | |||||
| 22–28 October 2019 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partido Social Democrata.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 78 | 2% | 93% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 91% | Last Result |
| 80 | 2% | 90% | |
| 81 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 88% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 84 | 2% | 85% | |
| 85 | 3% | 83% | |
| 86 | 2% | 80% | |
| 87 | 4% | 78% | |
| 88 | 4% | 74% | |
| 89 | 4% | 70% | |
| 90 | 5% | 66% | |
| 91 | 3% | 61% | |
| 92 | 5% | 57% | |
| 93 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 94 | 7% | 48% | |
| 95 | 5% | 42% | |
| 96 | 7% | 37% | |
| 97 | 8% | 30% | |
| 98 | 6% | 22% | |
| 99 | 5% | 17% | |
| 100 | 3% | 12% | |
| 101 | 2% | 9% | |
| 102 | 2% | 7% | |
| 103 | 2% | 5% | |
| 104 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |