Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 13–21 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 41.7% 39.1–44.3% 38.4–45.0% 37.8–45.6% 36.6–46.9%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 25.1% 23.0–27.5% 22.3–28.2% 21.8–28.7% 20.8–29.9%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.6% 7.3–10.2% 6.9–10.7% 6.6–11.1% 6.0–11.9%
Chega 1.3% 8.1% 6.8–9.7% 6.5–10.2% 6.2–10.6% 5.6–11.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.2% 3.9–7.6% 3.5–8.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.0% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.7% 1.6–5.2%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.0% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.4% 0.9–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 118 111–125 108–127 107–129 104–132
Partido Social Democrata 79 64 59–72 57–74 55–75 54–78
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 11–21 11–21 11–23 8–23
Chega 1 14 11–18 11–18 9–20 8–23
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 6–12 5–13 5–14 4–16
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–5 2–5 1–6 1–8
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 2–4 1–5 1–5 0–5
Iniciativa Liberal 1 2 1–3 1–4 1–4 0–5

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.5%  
105 1.4% 99.3%  
106 0.3% 98%  
107 0.8% 98%  
108 2% 97% Last Result
109 2% 95%  
110 1.4% 93%  
111 7% 91%  
112 3% 84%  
113 5% 81%  
114 4% 76%  
115 2% 72%  
116 7% 71% Majority
117 3% 64%  
118 11% 61% Median
119 3% 50%  
120 5% 47%  
121 16% 42%  
122 0.9% 26%  
123 3% 25%  
124 9% 21%  
125 3% 12%  
126 2% 9%  
127 3% 7%  
128 1.3% 5%  
129 0.8% 3%  
130 0.7% 2%  
131 1.2% 2%  
132 0.1% 0.6%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.7%  
55 1.5% 98.9%  
56 1.5% 97%  
57 4% 96%  
58 1.1% 92%  
59 3% 91%  
60 4% 88%  
61 11% 84%  
62 3% 73%  
63 5% 70%  
64 16% 65% Median
65 4% 49%  
66 7% 45%  
67 5% 38%  
68 8% 33%  
69 2% 24%  
70 11% 22%  
71 0.7% 12%  
72 1.3% 11%  
73 4% 10%  
74 2% 5%  
75 0.6% 3%  
76 0.4% 2%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.7%  
9 0.4% 99.4%  
10 0.3% 99.0%  
11 14% 98.6%  
12 2% 84%  
13 4% 83%  
14 8% 79%  
15 17% 70%  
16 17% 54% Median
17 6% 37%  
18 12% 31%  
19 6% 20% Last Result
20 3% 14%  
21 7% 11%  
22 1.0% 4%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 0.6% 98%  
10 2% 97%  
11 24% 96%  
12 6% 72%  
13 5% 66%  
14 38% 61% Median
15 7% 23%  
16 3% 17%  
17 3% 13%  
18 7% 11%  
19 0.6% 4%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 2%  
22 0.5% 1.1%  
23 0.2% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 1.0% 99.8%  
5 7% 98.8%  
6 13% 92%  
7 29% 79% Median
8 4% 50%  
9 6% 46%  
10 26% 40%  
11 0.9% 14%  
12 3% 13% Last Result
13 6% 10%  
14 2% 4%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 39% 97%  
3 17% 58% Median
4 30% 41% Last Result
5 6% 11%  
6 4% 5%  
7 0.4% 1.1%  
8 0.4% 0.6%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 7% 98.7%  
2 68% 92% Median
3 7% 24%  
4 12% 17%  
5 5% 5% Last Result
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 43% 99.3% Last Result
2 10% 56% Median
3 40% 46%  
4 5% 6%  
5 0.7% 0.8%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 143 100% 136–149 133–152 131–154 128–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 134 100% 127–142 126–144 123–146 120–148
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 128 96% 118–132 117–136 115–139 112–141
Partido Socialista 108 118 71% 111–125 108–127 107–129 104–132
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 66 0% 61–75 59–77 57–78 56–81

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0.2% 99.8%  
128 0.1% 99.5%  
129 0.2% 99.4%  
130 1.1% 99.3%  
131 0.9% 98%  
132 0.4% 97%  
133 2% 97%  
134 0.8% 95%  
135 2% 94%  
136 10% 92%  
137 7% 82%  
138 2% 75%  
139 5% 73% Last Result
140 6% 68%  
141 6% 62% Median
142 3% 56%  
143 5% 53%  
144 4% 48%  
145 2% 44%  
146 14% 41%  
147 11% 27%  
148 2% 16%  
149 4% 14%  
150 2% 9%  
151 2% 8%  
152 1.4% 5%  
153 1.2% 4%  
154 0.8% 3%  
155 0.7% 2%  
156 1.1% 1.5%  
157 0.2% 0.3%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.7%  
120 0.2% 99.6%  
121 0.8% 99.3%  
122 0.3% 98%  
123 0.9% 98%  
124 1.1% 97%  
125 1.1% 96%  
126 3% 95%  
127 6% 92% Last Result
128 2% 86%  
129 9% 84%  
130 5% 75%  
131 7% 70%  
132 4% 63%  
133 4% 59%  
134 6% 55% Median
135 4% 49%  
136 14% 45%  
137 4% 31%  
138 2% 27%  
139 2% 25%  
140 11% 23%  
141 1.2% 12%  
142 3% 11%  
143 2% 8%  
144 2% 6%  
145 2% 4%  
146 1.3% 3%  
147 0.4% 1.5%  
148 0.7% 1.1%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.2% 99.5%  
114 1.1% 99.3%  
115 2% 98%  
116 0.7% 96% Majority
117 1.0% 96%  
118 8% 95%  
119 2% 87%  
120 4% 85% Last Result
121 0.8% 81%  
122 1.2% 80%  
123 2% 79%  
124 5% 77%  
125 10% 72% Median
126 9% 62%  
127 2% 53%  
128 6% 51%  
129 5% 45%  
130 5% 39%  
131 21% 34%  
132 5% 13%  
133 2% 8%  
134 0.8% 6%  
135 0.2% 5%  
136 0.7% 5%  
137 0.6% 4%  
138 1.2% 4%  
139 2% 3%  
140 0.5% 1.0%  
141 0.4% 0.5%  
142 0.2% 0.2%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.5%  
105 1.4% 99.3%  
106 0.3% 98%  
107 0.8% 98%  
108 2% 97% Last Result
109 2% 95%  
110 1.4% 93%  
111 7% 91%  
112 3% 84%  
113 5% 81%  
114 4% 76%  
115 2% 72%  
116 7% 71% Majority
117 3% 64%  
118 11% 61% Median
119 3% 50%  
120 5% 47%  
121 16% 42%  
122 0.9% 26%  
123 3% 25%  
124 9% 21%  
125 3% 12%  
126 2% 9%  
127 3% 7%  
128 1.3% 5%  
129 0.8% 3%  
130 0.7% 2%  
131 1.2% 2%  
132 0.1% 0.6%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 1.0% 99.5%  
57 2% 98%  
58 0.4% 97%  
59 4% 97%  
60 1.2% 93%  
61 2% 91%  
62 4% 89%  
63 11% 85%  
64 3% 74%  
65 5% 71%  
66 16% 66% Median
67 5% 50%  
68 7% 45%  
69 4% 39%  
70 3% 34%  
71 4% 31%  
72 13% 27%  
73 2% 14%  
74 2% 12%  
75 1.5% 10%  
76 0.8% 9%  
77 4% 8%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.5% 2%  
80 0.3% 2%  
81 1.0% 1.4%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1% Last Result
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations