Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 29 March–2 April 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 36.4% | 37.5% | 35.6–39.5% | 35.0–40.1% | 34.6–40.5% | 33.6–41.5% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 27.8% | 27.2% | 25.4–29.0% | 25.0–29.6% | 24.5–30.0% | 23.7–30.9% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.4–11.0% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| Chega | 1.3% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.7% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.3–5.4% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 111 | 106–118 | 104–119 | 102–121 | 98–125 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 79 | 79 | 72–83 | 68–85 | 67–87 | 66–89 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 19 | 16–23 | 15–23 | 14–24 | 14–26 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 12 | 10 | 7–15 | 7–16 | 7–16 | 6–17 |
| Chega | 1 | 4 | 3–6 | 2–7 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 5 | 2 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 4 | 3 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 0–4 |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 103 | 2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 2% | 95% | |
| 105 | 2% | 93% | |
| 106 | 10% | 91% | |
| 107 | 2% | 81% | |
| 108 | 2% | 79% | Last Result |
| 109 | 3% | 77% | |
| 110 | 16% | 74% | |
| 111 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 112 | 5% | 50% | |
| 113 | 12% | 45% | |
| 114 | 5% | 33% | |
| 115 | 6% | 28% | |
| 116 | 5% | 23% | Majority |
| 117 | 6% | 18% | |
| 118 | 6% | 12% | |
| 119 | 3% | 6% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 121 | 2% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 68 | 2% | 97% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 70 | 3% | 94% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 72 | 3% | 90% | |
| 73 | 4% | 88% | |
| 74 | 7% | 83% | |
| 75 | 4% | 77% | |
| 76 | 6% | 72% | |
| 77 | 5% | 66% | |
| 78 | 6% | 62% | |
| 79 | 13% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 80 | 11% | 43% | |
| 81 | 13% | 31% | |
| 82 | 4% | 18% | |
| 83 | 6% | 14% | |
| 84 | 3% | 8% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 87 | 2% | 3% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 4% | 97% | |
| 16 | 11% | 94% | |
| 17 | 5% | 82% | |
| 18 | 13% | 77% | |
| 19 | 19% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 17% | 44% | |
| 21 | 10% | 27% | |
| 22 | 5% | 17% | |
| 23 | 8% | 12% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 16% | 90% | |
| 9 | 21% | 74% | |
| 10 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 11 | 8% | 42% | |
| 12 | 5% | 34% | Last Result |
| 13 | 4% | 29% | |
| 14 | 11% | 24% | |
| 15 | 7% | 13% | |
| 16 | 5% | 6% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Chega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 31% | 92% | |
| 4 | 48% | 61% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 13% | |
| 6 | 5% | 11% | |
| 7 | 3% | 6% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 24% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 59% | 76% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 16% | |
| 4 | 11% | 13% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 13% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 28% | 87% | |
| 3 | 43% | 58% | Median |
| 4 | 15% | 16% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Iniciativa Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | |
| 1 | 77% | 87% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 3% | 10% | |
| 3 | 7% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 139 | 140 | 100% | 137–147 | 134–151 | 133–152 | 130–154 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 127 | 130 | 99.9% | 125–138 | 123–140 | 122–140 | 117–144 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 120 | 122 | 94% | 116–130 | 115–131 | 114–132 | 110–135 |
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 111 | 23% | 106–118 | 104–119 | 102–121 | 98–125 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 84 | 81 | 0% | 74–85 | 70–87 | 69–89 | 68–91 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 133 | 2% | 98% | |
| 134 | 2% | 96% | |
| 135 | 2% | 94% | |
| 136 | 2% | 92% | |
| 137 | 7% | 90% | |
| 138 | 13% | 83% | |
| 139 | 7% | 70% | Last Result |
| 140 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 141 | 6% | 47% | |
| 142 | 4% | 41% | |
| 143 | 5% | 36% | |
| 144 | 5% | 32% | |
| 145 | 5% | 27% | |
| 146 | 6% | 22% | |
| 147 | 7% | 16% | |
| 148 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 150 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 151 | 2% | 7% | |
| 152 | 3% | 5% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 122 | 3% | 98% | |
| 123 | 2% | 95% | |
| 124 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 125 | 3% | 92% | |
| 126 | 7% | 89% | |
| 127 | 10% | 82% | Last Result |
| 128 | 4% | 73% | |
| 129 | 2% | 69% | |
| 130 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 131 | 14% | 48% | |
| 132 | 3% | 34% | |
| 133 | 2% | 31% | |
| 134 | 7% | 29% | |
| 135 | 4% | 22% | |
| 136 | 2% | 18% | |
| 137 | 5% | 16% | |
| 138 | 2% | 11% | |
| 139 | 2% | 9% | |
| 140 | 5% | 7% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 114 | 2% | 98% | |
| 115 | 2% | 96% | |
| 116 | 5% | 94% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 88% | |
| 118 | 14% | 86% | |
| 119 | 3% | 72% | |
| 120 | 9% | 70% | Last Result |
| 121 | 7% | 61% | Median |
| 122 | 14% | 55% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 40% | |
| 124 | 9% | 40% | |
| 125 | 4% | 31% | |
| 126 | 7% | 26% | |
| 127 | 5% | 20% | |
| 128 | 2% | 15% | |
| 129 | 3% | 13% | |
| 130 | 4% | 10% | |
| 131 | 2% | 6% | |
| 132 | 2% | 4% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 103 | 2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 2% | 95% | |
| 105 | 2% | 93% | |
| 106 | 10% | 91% | |
| 107 | 2% | 81% | |
| 108 | 2% | 79% | Last Result |
| 109 | 3% | 77% | |
| 110 | 16% | 74% | |
| 111 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 112 | 5% | 50% | |
| 113 | 12% | 45% | |
| 114 | 5% | 33% | |
| 115 | 6% | 28% | |
| 116 | 5% | 23% | Majority |
| 117 | 6% | 18% | |
| 118 | 6% | 12% | |
| 119 | 3% | 6% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 121 | 2% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 70 | 2% | 96% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 72 | 2% | 94% | |
| 73 | 2% | 92% | |
| 74 | 3% | 91% | |
| 75 | 3% | 88% | |
| 76 | 8% | 85% | |
| 77 | 4% | 77% | |
| 78 | 6% | 73% | |
| 79 | 6% | 67% | |
| 80 | 3% | 61% | |
| 81 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 82 | 9% | 41% | |
| 83 | 15% | 32% | |
| 84 | 2% | 17% | Last Result |
| 85 | 7% | 15% | |
| 86 | 2% | 8% | |
| 87 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 5% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eurosondagem
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 29 March–2 April 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1008
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.02%