Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 15–26 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 41.8% 39.3–44.4% 38.6–45.2% 37.9–45.8% 36.7–47.1%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 23.1% 21.0–25.5% 20.5–26.1% 20.0–26.7% 19.0–27.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.1% 6.8–9.7% 6.5–10.2% 6.2–10.6% 5.6–11.4%
Chega 1.3% 7.3% 6.1–8.8% 5.7–9.3% 5.5–9.6% 4.9–10.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.6% 4.6–7.0% 4.3–7.4% 4.1–7.8% 3.6–8.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.6% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.0% 1.6–4.3% 1.4–4.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.6% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.0% 1.6–4.3% 1.4–4.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.6% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.0% 1.6–4.3% 1.4–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 120 114–128 112–130 109–131 106–134
Partido Social Democrata 79 62 55–68 54–70 54–72 50–76
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 12–19 10–21 10–21 7–23
Chega 1 11 9–14 9–16 8–17 7–20
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 6–13 5–13 5–14 4–17
CDS–Partido Popular 5 3 2–4 1–5 0–5 0–5
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–5 1–6 1–6 0–8
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 1–4 1–5 1–6 1–6

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.5% 99.8%  
107 0.4% 99.3%  
108 0.4% 98.9% Last Result
109 1.0% 98%  
110 0.8% 97%  
111 0.6% 97%  
112 1.3% 96%  
113 2% 95%  
114 3% 93%  
115 12% 90%  
116 2% 78% Majority
117 14% 76%  
118 7% 62%  
119 3% 55%  
120 2% 52% Median
121 3% 50%  
122 5% 47%  
123 2% 42%  
124 4% 40%  
125 6% 36%  
126 6% 30%  
127 1.2% 24%  
128 15% 23%  
129 2% 9%  
130 3% 7%  
131 2% 4%  
132 0.4% 2%  
133 0.9% 2%  
134 0.3% 0.7%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.6%  
51 0.1% 99.5%  
52 0.3% 99.4%  
53 1.1% 99.0%  
54 5% 98%  
55 7% 93%  
56 8% 86%  
57 9% 78%  
58 3% 69%  
59 2% 66%  
60 3% 64%  
61 11% 61%  
62 2% 50% Median
63 17% 48%  
64 2% 31%  
65 2% 29%  
66 0.9% 27%  
67 13% 26%  
68 5% 13%  
69 2% 9%  
70 2% 7%  
71 1.3% 4%  
72 0.6% 3%  
73 0.4% 2%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.3%  
76 0.4% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.6% 100%  
8 0.7% 99.4%  
9 0.9% 98.7%  
10 3% 98%  
11 4% 95%  
12 4% 91%  
13 7% 86%  
14 5% 79%  
15 12% 74%  
16 21% 62% Median
17 18% 41%  
18 12% 23%  
19 4% 11% Last Result
20 1.4% 7%  
21 4% 6%  
22 0.8% 2%  
23 0.6% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.3%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 0.2% 99.8%  
7 0.2% 99.6%  
8 4% 99.4%  
9 7% 96%  
10 2% 89%  
11 43% 87% Median
12 5% 44%  
13 19% 38%  
14 13% 20%  
15 0.6% 7%  
16 2% 6%  
17 2% 4%  
18 0.9% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.9%  
20 0.3% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.4% 99.9%  
5 6% 99.5%  
6 5% 94%  
7 8% 89%  
8 12% 81%  
9 7% 69%  
10 26% 62% Median
11 13% 37%  
12 11% 24% Last Result
13 8% 12%  
14 3% 5%  
15 0.8% 2%  
16 0.4% 1.2%  
17 0.4% 0.9%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 2% 95%  
2 21% 93%  
3 39% 72% Median
4 25% 34%  
5 8% 8% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 4% 99.5%  
2 36% 95%  
3 31% 59% Median
4 17% 27% Last Result
5 6% 11%  
6 4% 5%  
7 0.4% 0.9%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100% Last Result
2 16% 88%  
3 57% 72% Median
4 8% 16%  
5 4% 8%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 146 100% 140–155 137–156 134–156 132–158
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 136 100% 129–144 127–146 125–147 122–150
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 129 99.5% 125–140 121–140 119–141 116–144
Partido Socialista 108 120 78% 114–128 112–130 109–131 106–134
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 65 0% 58–71 57–73 56–76 54–79

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 0.3% 99.5%  
133 0.5% 99.3%  
134 2% 98.7%  
135 0.6% 97%  
136 0.8% 96%  
137 2% 95%  
138 1.2% 93%  
139 1.0% 92% Last Result
140 3% 91%  
141 2% 88%  
142 12% 85%  
143 3% 73%  
144 15% 70%  
145 5% 55%  
146 6% 50% Median
147 4% 44%  
148 2% 40%  
149 5% 39%  
150 6% 34%  
151 5% 28%  
152 1.5% 23%  
153 4% 21%  
154 3% 17%  
155 8% 14%  
156 5% 6%  
157 0.3% 1.1%  
158 0.4% 0.8%  
159 0.2% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0.4% 99.6%  
123 0.1% 99.2%  
124 0.9% 99.1%  
125 0.8% 98%  
126 1.1% 97%  
127 3% 96% Last Result
128 2% 93%  
129 1.0% 91%  
130 2% 90%  
131 12% 88%  
132 1.4% 76%  
133 3% 75%  
134 15% 72%  
135 3% 57%  
136 6% 53% Median
137 4% 47%  
138 2% 43%  
139 4% 41%  
140 2% 36%  
141 4% 34%  
142 6% 30%  
143 9% 24%  
144 8% 15%  
145 1.3% 7%  
146 1.3% 5%  
147 2% 4%  
148 1.1% 2%  
149 0.2% 0.8%  
150 0.1% 0.6%  
151 0.3% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.2% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.6%  
116 0.2% 99.5% Majority
117 0.5% 99.3%  
118 0.4% 98.9%  
119 1.1% 98.5%  
120 2% 97% Last Result
121 1.4% 96%  
122 1.0% 94%  
123 1.5% 93%  
124 1.2% 92%  
125 3% 90%  
126 13% 88%  
127 16% 75%  
128 8% 59%  
129 2% 51%  
130 2% 49% Median
131 2% 47%  
132 5% 45%  
133 3% 40%  
134 5% 36%  
135 7% 31%  
136 3% 25%  
137 3% 22%  
138 4% 19%  
139 2% 15%  
140 10% 13%  
141 2% 4%  
142 0.2% 1.2%  
143 0.4% 0.9%  
144 0.3% 0.5%  
145 0.2% 0.3%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.5% 99.8%  
107 0.4% 99.3%  
108 0.4% 98.9% Last Result
109 1.0% 98%  
110 0.8% 97%  
111 0.6% 97%  
112 1.3% 96%  
113 2% 95%  
114 3% 93%  
115 12% 90%  
116 2% 78% Majority
117 14% 76%  
118 7% 62%  
119 3% 55%  
120 2% 52% Median
121 3% 50%  
122 5% 47%  
123 2% 42%  
124 4% 40%  
125 6% 36%  
126 6% 30%  
127 1.2% 24%  
128 15% 23%  
129 2% 9%  
130 3% 7%  
131 2% 4%  
132 0.4% 2%  
133 0.9% 2%  
134 0.3% 0.7%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.5% 99.6%  
55 1.3% 99.1%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 6% 93%  
59 9% 87%  
60 7% 77%  
61 4% 70%  
62 3% 66%  
63 10% 63%  
64 2% 54%  
65 4% 51% Median
66 15% 47%  
67 3% 32%  
68 1.4% 29%  
69 2% 28%  
70 3% 26%  
71 14% 22%  
72 1.1% 9%  
73 3% 7%  
74 1.3% 5%  
75 0.6% 3%  
76 1.1% 3%  
77 0.2% 2%  
78 0.8% 1.3%  
79 0.3% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations