Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 4–7 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.7% 35.8–39.7% 35.2–40.3% 34.8–40.8% 33.9–41.7%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 29.4% 27.6–31.2% 27.1–31.8% 26.6–32.3% 25.8–33.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.3% 7.2–9.5% 7.0–9.8% 6.7–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.5% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Chega 1.3% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 112 105–115 102–117 100–119 97–121
Partido Social Democrata 79 82 78–88 77–89 75–90 72–97
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 15–19 15–19 13–20 11–21
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 7–12 7–13 6–15 5–16
Chega 1 4 3–6 3–8 3–8 2–9
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 1–4 1–5 1–5 1–5
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.8%  
97 0.4% 99.5%  
98 0.1% 99.1%  
99 0.9% 99.0%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 1.2% 97%  
102 3% 96%  
103 0.7% 93%  
104 0.5% 92%  
105 2% 92%  
106 3% 90%  
107 6% 87%  
108 14% 81% Last Result
109 2% 66%  
110 5% 64%  
111 3% 59%  
112 11% 56% Median
113 9% 45%  
114 17% 36%  
115 12% 19%  
116 0.5% 7% Majority
117 2% 7%  
118 0.9% 5%  
119 2% 4%  
120 0.8% 1.3%  
121 0.1% 0.6%  
122 0.4% 0.5%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.5%  
73 0.2% 99.3%  
74 0.5% 99.1%  
75 2% 98.6%  
76 0.7% 97%  
77 5% 96%  
78 3% 91%  
79 5% 88% Last Result
80 15% 83%  
81 8% 68%  
82 12% 60% Median
83 4% 48%  
84 21% 44%  
85 4% 23%  
86 2% 18%  
87 4% 17%  
88 4% 13%  
89 5% 9%  
90 2% 5%  
91 0.4% 2%  
92 0.3% 2%  
93 0% 2%  
94 0.2% 2%  
95 0.3% 1.3%  
96 0.1% 1.0%  
97 0.5% 0.9%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 0.4% 99.7%  
12 1.2% 99.3%  
13 1.0% 98%  
14 2% 97%  
15 23% 95%  
16 32% 72% Median
17 18% 40%  
18 6% 22%  
19 11% 15% Last Result
20 3% 4%  
21 0.8% 1.2%  
22 0.1% 0.5%  
23 0.2% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 3% 98%  
7 24% 95%  
8 21% 71%  
9 26% 50% Median
10 6% 24%  
11 6% 19%  
12 3% 13% Last Result
13 5% 10%  
14 1.3% 4%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.7% 0.8%  
17 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.6% 100%  
3 20% 99.4%  
4 62% 80% Median
5 3% 18%  
6 6% 15%  
7 1.3% 10%  
8 7% 8%  
9 0.7% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 22% 99.8%  
2 50% 78% Median
3 1.2% 28%  
4 22% 27%  
5 5% 5% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 13% 99.8%  
2 49% 86% Median
3 23% 38%  
4 14% 14% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.4%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 61% 75% Last Result, Median
2 5% 14%  
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 137 100% 131–142 129–143 126–144 123–146
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 129 98.9% 122–132 118–133 118–135 112–138
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 120 86% 115–125 112–126 109–129 106–130
Partido Socialista 108 112 7% 105–115 102–117 100–119 97–121
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 85 0% 81–90 79–91 77–93 74–99

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.2% 99.8%  
122 0.1% 99.6%  
123 0.5% 99.5%  
124 0.3% 99.0%  
125 0.4% 98.7%  
126 1.0% 98%  
127 0.8% 97%  
128 0.8% 96%  
129 0.7% 96%  
130 3% 95%  
131 5% 92%  
132 3% 87%  
133 12% 84%  
134 7% 72%  
135 5% 64%  
136 6% 59%  
137 6% 53% Median
138 17% 47%  
139 14% 31% Last Result
140 2% 16%  
141 3% 14%  
142 3% 11%  
143 4% 8%  
144 1.2% 4%  
145 2% 2%  
146 0.3% 0.7%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0% 0.3%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.3% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.6%  
113 0.3% 99.5%  
114 0.1% 99.1%  
115 0.1% 99.1%  
116 0.5% 98.9% Majority
117 0.4% 98%  
118 4% 98%  
119 1.3% 94%  
120 2% 93%  
121 1.3% 91%  
122 4% 90%  
123 6% 87%  
124 11% 80%  
125 1.2% 69%  
126 4% 68%  
127 11% 64% Last Result
128 2% 53% Median
129 17% 51%  
130 8% 35%  
131 3% 27%  
132 16% 24%  
133 5% 8%  
134 0.3% 4%  
135 2% 4%  
136 0.8% 1.5%  
137 0.1% 0.7%  
138 0.4% 0.6%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.8%  
106 0.5% 99.6%  
107 0.7% 99.1%  
108 0.1% 98%  
109 1.3% 98%  
110 0.1% 97%  
111 1.5% 97%  
112 0.5% 95%  
113 1.0% 95%  
114 2% 94%  
115 6% 92%  
116 5% 86% Majority
117 9% 80%  
118 10% 71%  
119 4% 61%  
120 9% 57% Last Result
121 4% 48% Median
122 22% 44%  
123 9% 22%  
124 1.5% 14%  
125 4% 12%  
126 3% 8%  
127 1.2% 5%  
128 1.1% 4%  
129 2% 3%  
130 0.4% 0.8%  
131 0.2% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.8%  
97 0.4% 99.5%  
98 0.1% 99.1%  
99 0.9% 99.0%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 1.2% 97%  
102 3% 96%  
103 0.7% 93%  
104 0.5% 92%  
105 2% 92%  
106 3% 90%  
107 6% 87%  
108 14% 81% Last Result
109 2% 66%  
110 5% 64%  
111 3% 59%  
112 11% 56% Median
113 9% 45%  
114 17% 36%  
115 12% 19%  
116 0.5% 7% Majority
117 2% 7%  
118 0.9% 5%  
119 2% 4%  
120 0.8% 1.3%  
121 0.1% 0.6%  
122 0.4% 0.5%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.6%  
75 0.3% 99.5%  
76 0.4% 99.2%  
77 2% 98.8%  
78 1.5% 97%  
79 4% 96%  
80 0.9% 92%  
81 6% 91%  
82 16% 84%  
83 1.2% 69%  
84 12% 68% Last Result, Median
85 16% 56%  
86 9% 39%  
87 2% 30%  
88 10% 29%  
89 6% 19%  
90 4% 13%  
91 5% 9%  
92 0.8% 4%  
93 1.2% 3%  
94 0.3% 2%  
95 0.3% 2%  
96 0.2% 2%  
97 0.1% 1.3%  
98 0.6% 1.3%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations