Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 17–20 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.9% 36.5–39.2% 36.2–39.6% 35.8–40.0% 35.2–40.6%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 30.0% 28.7–31.3% 28.4–31.7% 28.1–32.0% 27.5–32.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.1% 7.4–8.9% 7.2–9.2% 7.0–9.4% 6.7–9.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.2% 4.6–5.9% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.6%
Chega 1.3% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.6%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.2% 2.8–3.8% 2.6–3.9% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.2% 1.8–2.7% 1.8–2.8% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.2%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.2% 0.9–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 110 108–114 107–115 106–116 103–119
Partido Social Democrata 79 85 82–88 80–88 80–89 78–92
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 15–16 15–17 15–18 14–19
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–12
Chega 1 4 4–6 4–7 4–8 3–8
CDS–Partido Popular 5 3 2–4 1–4 1–4 1–5
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 0.6% 99.3%  
105 0.7% 98.8%  
106 2% 98%  
107 2% 96%  
108 13% 94% Last Result
109 7% 81%  
110 38% 74% Median
111 6% 36%  
112 15% 30%  
113 4% 15%  
114 5% 10%  
115 3% 6%  
116 0.3% 3% Majority
117 2% 2%  
118 0.4% 0.9%  
119 0.5% 0.5%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.7% 99.6%  
79 1.3% 98.8% Last Result
80 3% 98%  
81 4% 94%  
82 13% 90%  
83 14% 77%  
84 3% 63%  
85 37% 60% Median
86 5% 23%  
87 1.1% 18%  
88 14% 17%  
89 1.3% 3%  
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.2% 1.1%  
92 0.7% 0.9%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 0.3% 99.8%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 19% 98%  
16 71% 79% Median
17 5% 8%  
18 1.1% 3%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 3% 99.7%  
7 15% 97%  
8 58% 82% Median
9 16% 23%  
10 6% 8%  
11 0.4% 1.3%  
12 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 78% 99.5% Median
5 10% 22%  
6 3% 12%  
7 6% 9%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100%  
2 31% 94%  
3 38% 62% Median
4 24% 24%  
5 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 18% 99.9%  
2 79% 82% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 93% 94% Last Result, Median
2 0.6% 0.9%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 134 100% 132–137 131–138 130–140 128–141
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 126 99.9% 124–130 123–130 122–132 119–134
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 118 94% 116–121 115–122 114–124 111–126
Partido Socialista 108 110 3% 108–114 107–115 106–116 103–119
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 88 0% 85–90 83–90 82–91 80–94

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0.2% 99.8%  
127 0.1% 99.6%  
128 0.6% 99.5%  
129 1.4% 99.0%  
130 1.2% 98%  
131 2% 96%  
132 15% 95%  
133 2% 80%  
134 42% 78% Median
135 8% 36%  
136 4% 28%  
137 16% 23%  
138 3% 7%  
139 1.1% 4% Last Result
140 2% 3%  
141 0.5% 1.0%  
142 0.3% 0.5%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9% Majority
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0.2% 99.6%  
120 0.5% 99.4%  
121 0.8% 98.9%  
122 2% 98%  
123 1.4% 96%  
124 17% 95%  
125 6% 78%  
126 39% 72% Median
127 4% 32% Last Result
128 14% 29%  
129 3% 14%  
130 7% 12%  
131 1.5% 5%  
132 1.1% 3%  
133 2% 2%  
134 0.4% 0.7%  
135 0.3% 0.3%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.3% 99.7%  
112 0.9% 99.4%  
113 0.3% 98%  
114 2% 98%  
115 2% 96%  
116 14% 94% Majority
117 3% 81%  
118 38% 78% Median
119 8% 41%  
120 10% 33% Last Result
121 17% 23%  
122 1.3% 6%  
123 2% 5%  
124 2% 3%  
125 0.4% 1.2%  
126 0.5% 0.8%  
127 0.2% 0.3%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 0.6% 99.3%  
105 0.7% 98.8%  
106 2% 98%  
107 2% 96%  
108 13% 94% Last Result
109 7% 81%  
110 38% 74% Median
111 6% 36%  
112 15% 30%  
113 4% 15%  
114 5% 10%  
115 3% 6%  
116 0.3% 3% Majority
117 2% 2%  
118 0.4% 0.9%  
119 0.5% 0.5%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.7% 99.7%  
81 0.6% 99.0%  
82 3% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 2% 94% Last Result
85 10% 91%  
86 16% 82%  
87 8% 66%  
88 39% 58% Median
89 3% 19%  
90 13% 17%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.1% 1.1%  
94 0.7% 1.0%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations