Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 16–24 May 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 36.4% | 44.8% | 42.5–47.0% | 41.9–47.7% | 41.4–48.2% | 40.3–49.3% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 27.8% | 24.1% | 22.2–26.1% | 21.7–26.7% | 21.2–27.1% | 20.4–28.1% |
| Chega | 1.3% | 6.4% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.1–8.0% | 4.9–8.3% | 4.4–8.9% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 9.5% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.3% | 4.9–7.7% | 4.6–8.0% | 4.2–8.6% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.4% | 4.4–7.7% | 4.0–8.3% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.8–4.1% | 1.6–4.6% |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.8% | 0.8–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 129 | 122–136 | 119–137 | 118–137 | 116–141 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 79 | 63 | 57–70 | 56–73 | 55–74 | 54–76 |
| Chega | 1 | 10 | 8–12 | 8–14 | 6–14 | 5–14 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 10 | 7–15 | 7–15 | 7–16 | 5–18 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 12 | 10 | 7–13 | 5–14 | 5–16 | 5–17 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 4 | 4 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 1–7 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 5 | 2 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1 | 1 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 118 | 2% | 98% | |
| 119 | 3% | 97% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 121 | 3% | 93% | |
| 122 | 6% | 90% | |
| 123 | 2% | 84% | |
| 124 | 2% | 82% | |
| 125 | 3% | 80% | |
| 126 | 6% | 77% | |
| 127 | 9% | 70% | |
| 128 | 4% | 61% | |
| 129 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 130 | 3% | 49% | |
| 131 | 12% | 46% | |
| 132 | 10% | 34% | |
| 133 | 6% | 24% | |
| 134 | 5% | 19% | |
| 135 | 2% | 14% | |
| 136 | 4% | 12% | |
| 137 | 5% | 7% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 3% | 95% | |
| 57 | 5% | 92% | |
| 58 | 4% | 87% | |
| 59 | 4% | 83% | |
| 60 | 6% | 79% | |
| 61 | 9% | 73% | |
| 62 | 5% | 64% | |
| 63 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 64 | 15% | 44% | |
| 65 | 5% | 28% | |
| 66 | 9% | 24% | |
| 67 | 2% | 15% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 69 | 2% | 13% | |
| 70 | 2% | 11% | |
| 71 | 2% | 9% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 73 | 3% | 6% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 75 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Chega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 2% | 97% | |
| 8 | 27% | 96% | |
| 9 | 14% | 68% | |
| 10 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 11 | 32% | 44% | |
| 12 | 3% | 12% | |
| 13 | 3% | 9% | |
| 14 | 5% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 26% | 98.7% | |
| 8 | 9% | 73% | |
| 9 | 7% | 64% | |
| 10 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 11 | 8% | 41% | |
| 12 | 5% | 34% | |
| 13 | 14% | 29% | |
| 14 | 5% | 15% | |
| 15 | 6% | 10% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 7 | 21% | 93% | |
| 8 | 11% | 72% | |
| 9 | 3% | 61% | |
| 10 | 30% | 58% | Median |
| 11 | 3% | 28% | |
| 12 | 4% | 25% | Last Result |
| 13 | 11% | 21% | |
| 14 | 5% | 10% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 28% | 98% | |
| 3 | 18% | 70% | |
| 4 | 34% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 10% | 19% | |
| 6 | 8% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 25% | 96% | |
| 2 | 56% | 71% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 15% | |
| 4 | 4% | 10% | |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Iniciativa Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 55% | 97% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 10% | 41% | |
| 3 | 31% | 32% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 139 | 149 | 100% | 142–155 | 140–156 | 137–158 | 135–161 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 127 | 139 | 100% | 132–145 | 129–146 | 128–149 | 126–151 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 120 | 139 | 100% | 131–146 | 129–147 | 127–148 | 125–151 |
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 129 | 99.7% | 122–136 | 119–137 | 118–137 | 116–141 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 84 | 65 | 0% | 59–72 | 58–75 | 57–76 | 56–78 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 139 | 1.1% | 97% | Last Result |
| 140 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 141 | 3% | 94% | |
| 142 | 4% | 92% | |
| 143 | 3% | 87% | |
| 144 | 9% | 85% | |
| 145 | 1.4% | 76% | |
| 146 | 6% | 74% | |
| 147 | 2% | 68% | |
| 148 | 6% | 66% | |
| 149 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 150 | 5% | 50% | |
| 151 | 15% | 45% | |
| 152 | 5% | 30% | |
| 153 | 5% | 24% | |
| 154 | 6% | 20% | |
| 155 | 8% | 14% | |
| 156 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 157 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 158 | 3% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 128 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 129 | 2% | 96% | |
| 130 | 2% | 94% | |
| 131 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 132 | 5% | 91% | |
| 133 | 2% | 86% | |
| 134 | 3% | 84% | |
| 135 | 4% | 81% | |
| 136 | 5% | 76% | |
| 137 | 9% | 71% | |
| 138 | 4% | 62% | |
| 139 | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 140 | 1.2% | 45% | |
| 141 | 6% | 44% | |
| 142 | 6% | 39% | |
| 143 | 3% | 33% | |
| 144 | 14% | 30% | |
| 145 | 6% | 15% | |
| 146 | 5% | 10% | |
| 147 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 149 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 129 | 2% | 96% | |
| 130 | 4% | 94% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 90% | |
| 132 | 2% | 89% | |
| 133 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 134 | 9% | 85% | |
| 135 | 4% | 77% | |
| 136 | 6% | 73% | |
| 137 | 4% | 67% | |
| 138 | 10% | 63% | |
| 139 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 140 | 2% | 45% | |
| 141 | 12% | 42% | |
| 142 | 10% | 30% | |
| 143 | 3% | 20% | |
| 144 | 3% | 17% | |
| 145 | 4% | 15% | |
| 146 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 147 | 7% | 10% | |
| 148 | 2% | 3% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.9% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 118 | 2% | 98% | |
| 119 | 3% | 97% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 121 | 3% | 93% | |
| 122 | 6% | 90% | |
| 123 | 2% | 84% | |
| 124 | 2% | 82% | |
| 125 | 3% | 80% | |
| 126 | 6% | 77% | |
| 127 | 9% | 70% | |
| 128 | 4% | 61% | |
| 129 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 130 | 3% | 49% | |
| 131 | 12% | 46% | |
| 132 | 10% | 34% | |
| 133 | 6% | 24% | |
| 134 | 5% | 19% | |
| 135 | 2% | 14% | |
| 136 | 4% | 12% | |
| 137 | 5% | 7% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 3% | 96% | |
| 59 | 6% | 93% | |
| 60 | 4% | 87% | |
| 61 | 4% | 83% | |
| 62 | 7% | 79% | |
| 63 | 10% | 72% | |
| 64 | 5% | 62% | |
| 65 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 66 | 13% | 43% | |
| 67 | 6% | 30% | |
| 68 | 8% | 24% | |
| 69 | 3% | 16% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 71 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 72 | 2% | 10% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 8% | |
| 75 | 2% | 5% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 77 | 2% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Pitagórica
- Commissioner(s): Jornal de Notícias
- Fieldwork period: 16–24 May 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 802
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.35%