Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 1–4 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.0% 36.1–40.0% 35.5–40.5% 35.1–41.0% 34.2–42.0%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 29.3% 27.5–31.2% 27.0–31.7% 26.6–32.2% 25.7–33.1%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.8% 3.7–7.4%
Chega 1.3% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.7% 2.2–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 113 107–118 103–119 101–120 98–122
Partido Social Democrata 79 83 79–87 76–88 75–91 72–95
Bloco de Esquerda 19 15 14–18 13–19 12–19 11–21
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 7–10 6–11 5–14 5–15
Chega 1 4 3–8 3–8 3–8 2–10
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 4 2–4 2–4 2–6 1–6
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 1–3 1–4 1–4 0–5
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.3% 99.6%  
99 0.2% 99.4%  
100 1.0% 99.1%  
101 2% 98%  
102 0.2% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 0.6% 95%  
105 0.5% 94%  
106 0.8% 94%  
107 5% 93%  
108 3% 88% Last Result
109 6% 85%  
110 5% 79%  
111 9% 74%  
112 5% 65%  
113 25% 60% Median
114 4% 35%  
115 6% 31%  
116 2% 25% Majority
117 9% 24%  
118 10% 15%  
119 1.2% 5%  
120 3% 4%  
121 0.2% 0.8%  
122 0.4% 0.6%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.8%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.4%  
74 1.3% 99.0%  
75 0.8% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 0.9% 93%  
78 1.5% 93%  
79 4% 91% Last Result
80 27% 87%  
81 3% 60%  
82 6% 57%  
83 3% 52% Median
84 30% 49%  
85 4% 19%  
86 5% 16%  
87 2% 11%  
88 5% 8%  
89 0.3% 4%  
90 0.4% 4%  
91 1.1% 3%  
92 1.3% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 1.2% 99.5%  
12 3% 98%  
13 1.4% 96%  
14 18% 94%  
15 37% 77% Median
16 20% 40%  
17 6% 19%  
18 6% 14%  
19 6% 8% Last Result
20 0.5% 2%  
21 1.1% 1.5%  
22 0.1% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 3% 97%  
7 55% 95% Median
8 10% 40%  
9 13% 30%  
10 11% 17%  
11 1.2% 6%  
12 0.9% 5% Last Result
13 0.4% 4%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.7% 0.9%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.5% 100%  
3 11% 99.5%  
4 58% 88% Median
5 9% 30%  
6 5% 21%  
7 2% 16%  
8 13% 14%  
9 0.4% 1.0%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100%  
2 21% 98.7%  
3 25% 78%  
4 49% 53% Last Result, Median
5 0.8% 4%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 42% 98%  
2 45% 56% Median
3 3% 11%  
4 7% 8%  
5 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100%  
1 64% 67% Last Result, Median
2 0.7% 3%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 136 100% 131–141 130–143 128–143 122–147
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 99.0% 123–134 121–134 118–136 113–137
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 120 91% 116–125 113–127 110–127 106–132
Partido Socialista 108 113 25% 107–118 103–119 101–120 98–122
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 85 0% 80–89 77–90 77–92 75–97

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0.2% 99.7%  
123 0.2% 99.4%  
124 0.2% 99.2%  
125 0.1% 99.0%  
126 0.8% 98.9%  
127 0.2% 98%  
128 2% 98%  
129 0.7% 96%  
130 3% 95%  
131 4% 92%  
132 4% 89%  
133 7% 85%  
134 16% 78%  
135 9% 62% Median
136 9% 52%  
137 7% 43%  
138 5% 36%  
139 10% 32% Last Result
140 6% 22%  
141 10% 16%  
142 0.7% 6%  
143 3% 5%  
144 0.7% 2%  
145 0.5% 1.1%  
146 0.1% 0.7%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0.2% 0.3%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.1% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.3% 99.8%  
114 0.3% 99.5%  
115 0.1% 99.1%  
116 0.7% 99.0% Majority
117 0.4% 98%  
118 1.0% 98%  
119 2% 97%  
120 0.2% 95%  
121 1.3% 95%  
122 3% 94%  
123 6% 91%  
124 5% 85%  
125 2% 79%  
126 11% 78%  
127 16% 66% Last Result
128 7% 50% Median
129 4% 43%  
130 8% 40%  
131 6% 32%  
132 8% 26%  
133 3% 17%  
134 10% 14%  
135 0.6% 5%  
136 3% 4%  
137 0.9% 1.2%  
138 0.2% 0.4%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.6%  
107 0.2% 99.5%  
108 0.9% 99.3%  
109 0.9% 98%  
110 0.5% 98%  
111 0.4% 97%  
112 0.5% 97%  
113 1.3% 96%  
114 1.4% 95%  
115 2% 94%  
116 3% 91% Majority
117 5% 88%  
118 3% 83%  
119 6% 80%  
120 29% 74% Last Result, Median
121 11% 45%  
122 6% 34%  
123 4% 29%  
124 9% 25%  
125 10% 16%  
126 0.5% 6%  
127 3% 5%  
128 0.3% 2%  
129 0.6% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.2%  
131 0.3% 0.9%  
132 0.4% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.3% 99.6%  
99 0.2% 99.4%  
100 1.0% 99.1%  
101 2% 98%  
102 0.2% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 0.6% 95%  
105 0.5% 94%  
106 0.8% 94%  
107 5% 93%  
108 3% 88% Last Result
109 6% 85%  
110 5% 79%  
111 9% 74%  
112 5% 65%  
113 25% 60% Median
114 4% 35%  
115 6% 31%  
116 2% 25% Majority
117 9% 24%  
118 10% 15%  
119 1.2% 5%  
120 3% 4%  
121 0.2% 0.8%  
122 0.4% 0.6%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.6% 99.5%  
76 1.1% 99.0%  
77 3% 98%  
78 0.9% 94%  
79 2% 93%  
80 1.2% 91%  
81 16% 90%  
82 14% 74%  
83 4% 60%  
84 2% 56% Last Result
85 14% 54% Median
86 20% 40%  
87 5% 19%  
88 2% 14%  
89 2% 12%  
90 5% 9%  
91 0.8% 4%  
92 1.1% 4%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.1% 0.8%  
96 0.1% 0.7%  
97 0.3% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.4%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations