Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 29 June–2 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.4% 36.5–40.4% 36.0–41.0% 35.5–41.5% 34.6–42.4%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 29.3% 27.5–31.1% 27.0–31.7% 26.6–32.1% 25.7–33.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Chega 1.3% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.8% 3.0–6.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.8% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.7–4.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.2% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 111 105–117 102–118 100–119 96–121
Partido Social Democrata 79 81 74–86 71–88 71–89 69–95
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 14–19 12–20 11–20 10–22
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 7–14 7–16 6–16 6–16
Chega 1 5 4–8 3–9 3–9 2–11
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–4 1–4 1–5 1–6
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–3 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.3% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.4%  
98 0.1% 99.1%  
99 0.5% 99.0%  
100 2% 98%  
101 0.3% 97%  
102 2% 96%  
103 2% 94%  
104 2% 92%  
105 4% 91%  
106 2% 87%  
107 13% 85%  
108 4% 72% Last Result
109 7% 68%  
110 5% 61%  
111 9% 56% Median
112 11% 47%  
113 7% 36%  
114 3% 29%  
115 5% 25%  
116 8% 21% Majority
117 5% 12%  
118 3% 7%  
119 2% 3%  
120 1.0% 2%  
121 0.3% 0.6%  
122 0.2% 0.3%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 1.0% 99.4%  
71 5% 98%  
72 0.4% 93%  
73 2% 93%  
74 3% 91%  
75 2% 88%  
76 3% 86%  
77 10% 83%  
78 8% 73%  
79 3% 65% Last Result
80 6% 61%  
81 17% 55% Median
82 4% 39%  
83 2% 34%  
84 16% 32%  
85 3% 16%  
86 3% 13%  
87 3% 10%  
88 4% 7%  
89 1.4% 4%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 0.1% 2%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.2% 1.0%  
94 0.2% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.6%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.2%  
12 3% 97%  
13 4% 94%  
14 4% 90%  
15 15% 86%  
16 16% 71%  
17 9% 55% Median
18 8% 46%  
19 30% 38% Last Result
20 6% 8%  
21 1.1% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 3% 99.6%  
7 9% 96%  
8 12% 87%  
9 14% 75%  
10 18% 62% Median
11 10% 44%  
12 5% 34% Last Result
13 6% 29%  
14 14% 23%  
15 4% 9%  
16 5% 5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.5% 100%  
3 9% 99.5%  
4 40% 90%  
5 11% 50% Median
6 8% 40%  
7 11% 32%  
8 15% 20%  
9 3% 5%  
10 0.8% 2%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 41% 95%  
3 35% 54% Median
4 17% 19% Last Result
5 1.3% 3%  
6 1.4% 1.4%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 45% 84% Median
2 38% 39%  
3 0.1% 0.8%  
4 0.6% 0.7%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 71% 78% Last Result, Median
2 3% 7%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 138 100% 132–144 130–148 128–148 123–150
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 98.7% 122–134 119–134 117–136 113–138
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 122 89% 115–128 112–130 111–130 107–134
Partido Socialista 108 111 21% 105–117 102–118 100–119 96–121
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 82 0% 75–88 72–89 72–91 70–96

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.2% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.1% 99.5%  
125 0.2% 99.4%  
126 0.5% 99.1%  
127 0.8% 98.6%  
128 0.6% 98%  
129 1.5% 97%  
130 2% 96%  
131 4% 94%  
132 3% 90%  
133 3% 88%  
134 1.1% 85%  
135 10% 84%  
136 17% 74%  
137 4% 58%  
138 4% 54% Median
139 8% 49% Last Result
140 9% 41%  
141 6% 33%  
142 9% 27%  
143 4% 18%  
144 5% 13%  
145 0.8% 8%  
146 0.6% 7%  
147 0.4% 7%  
148 5% 6%  
149 0.4% 1.0%  
150 0.1% 0.6%  
151 0.3% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.3% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.6%  
113 0.1% 99.5%  
114 0.5% 99.4%  
115 0.3% 99.0%  
116 0.5% 98.7% Majority
117 1.3% 98%  
118 0.9% 97%  
119 3% 96%  
120 1.0% 93%  
121 1.5% 92%  
122 4% 90%  
123 2% 87%  
124 7% 84%  
125 6% 77%  
126 15% 72%  
127 5% 56% Last Result
128 12% 51% Median
129 6% 39%  
130 3% 33%  
131 6% 31%  
132 6% 25%  
133 6% 19%  
134 9% 13%  
135 1.3% 4%  
136 1.0% 3%  
137 1.2% 2%  
138 0.5% 0.9%  
139 0.1% 0.4%  
140 0.2% 0.3%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.6%  
107 0.3% 99.5%  
108 0.1% 99.3%  
109 0.2% 99.2%  
110 1.0% 99.0%  
111 1.1% 98%  
112 4% 97%  
113 2% 93%  
114 0.7% 91%  
115 2% 90%  
116 3% 89% Majority
117 14% 86%  
118 4% 71%  
119 2% 67%  
120 6% 65% Last Result
121 7% 59% Median
122 6% 52%  
123 11% 46%  
124 6% 36%  
125 5% 30%  
126 10% 25%  
127 3% 15%  
128 3% 12%  
129 2% 9%  
130 6% 7%  
131 0.2% 1.2%  
132 0.3% 0.9%  
133 0% 0.7%  
134 0.4% 0.6%  
135 0.2% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.3% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.4%  
98 0.1% 99.1%  
99 0.5% 99.0%  
100 2% 98%  
101 0.3% 97%  
102 2% 96%  
103 2% 94%  
104 2% 92%  
105 4% 91%  
106 2% 87%  
107 13% 85%  
108 4% 72% Last Result
109 7% 68%  
110 5% 61%  
111 9% 56% Median
112 11% 47%  
113 7% 36%  
114 3% 29%  
115 5% 25%  
116 8% 21% Majority
117 5% 12%  
118 3% 7%  
119 2% 3%  
120 1.0% 2%  
121 0.3% 0.6%  
122 0.2% 0.3%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 1.1% 99.4%  
72 5% 98%  
73 0.6% 93%  
74 2% 93%  
75 3% 91%  
76 2% 88%  
77 4% 86%  
78 10% 82%  
79 6% 72%  
80 5% 66%  
81 7% 61%  
82 8% 54% Median
83 11% 46%  
84 3% 36% Last Result
85 3% 33%  
86 17% 29%  
87 2% 13%  
88 3% 11%  
89 4% 8%  
90 1.2% 4%  
91 0.9% 3%  
92 0.2% 2%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.2% 1.0%  
95 0.1% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.7%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations