Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Público and RTP, 13–18 July 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 36.4% | 39.0% | 37.4–40.6% | 36.9–41.1% | 36.5–41.5% | 35.8–42.3% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 27.8% | 26.0% | 24.6–27.5% | 24.1–27.9% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.1–29.0% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 9.5% | 7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.9% |
| Chega | 1.3% | 7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.9% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.8% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.3% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.3% |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 114 | 109–118 | 107–119 | 106–121 | 104–124 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 79 | 71 | 68–76 | 66–77 | 64–78 | 62–81 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 12 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 8–16 | 7–18 |
| Chega | 1 | 11 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 12 | 10 | 7–13 | 7–14 | 7–15 | 6–15 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 5 | 3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 106 | 2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 2% | 96% | |
| 108 | 2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 109 | 5% | 92% | |
| 110 | 3% | 87% | |
| 111 | 3% | 85% | |
| 112 | 16% | 82% | |
| 113 | 13% | 65% | |
| 114 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 115 | 14% | 45% | |
| 116 | 16% | 31% | Majority |
| 117 | 4% | 15% | |
| 118 | 6% | 12% | |
| 119 | 2% | 5% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 121 | 2% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 66 | 2% | 97% | |
| 67 | 2% | 95% | |
| 68 | 10% | 93% | |
| 69 | 11% | 82% | |
| 70 | 14% | 72% | |
| 71 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 72 | 2% | 43% | |
| 73 | 9% | 41% | |
| 74 | 7% | 32% | |
| 75 | 3% | 25% | |
| 76 | 16% | 21% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 78 | 3% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 2% | Last Result |
| 80 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 9 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 11 | 29% | 95% | |
| 12 | 23% | 66% | Median |
| 13 | 15% | 43% | |
| 14 | 12% | 28% | |
| 15 | 7% | 16% | |
| 16 | 7% | 9% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Chega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 98% | |
| 10 | 4% | 94% | |
| 11 | 48% | 89% | Median |
| 12 | 11% | 41% | |
| 13 | 17% | 30% | |
| 14 | 13% | 13% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 22% | 99.0% | |
| 8 | 6% | 77% | |
| 9 | 4% | 71% | |
| 10 | 30% | 66% | Median |
| 11 | 9% | 37% | |
| 12 | 8% | 27% | Last Result |
| 13 | 12% | 19% | |
| 14 | 4% | 7% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 15% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 24% | 85% | |
| 3 | 57% | 61% | Median |
| 4 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 39% | 94% | |
| 4 | 55% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Iniciativa Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 65% | 98.7% | Median |
| 4 | 29% | 33% | |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 139 | 136 | 100% | 131–141 | 131–141 | 129–146 | 127–148 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 127 | 126 | 99.7% | 121–130 | 120–132 | 119–135 | 116–138 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 120 | 124 | 99.1% | 119–129 | 118–130 | 116–132 | 114–135 |
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 114 | 31% | 109–118 | 107–119 | 106–121 | 104–124 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 84 | 73 | 0% | 70–79 | 69–79 | 66–81 | 64–83 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 129 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 131 | 11% | 96% | |
| 132 | 2% | 85% | |
| 133 | 11% | 82% | |
| 134 | 3% | 71% | |
| 135 | 1.3% | 68% | |
| 136 | 17% | 67% | Median |
| 137 | 9% | 50% | |
| 138 | 14% | 40% | |
| 139 | 6% | 26% | Last Result |
| 140 | 10% | 20% | |
| 141 | 6% | 10% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 146 | 2% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 119 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 120 | 2% | 96% | |
| 121 | 4% | 93% | |
| 122 | 2% | 89% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 124 | 16% | 86% | |
| 125 | 11% | 70% | |
| 126 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 127 | 12% | 48% | Last Result |
| 128 | 15% | 36% | |
| 129 | 7% | 20% | |
| 130 | 5% | 13% | |
| 131 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 132 | 4% | 7% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 136 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 116 | 2% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 3% | 96% | |
| 119 | 3% | 92% | |
| 120 | 11% | 89% | Last Result |
| 121 | 5% | 78% | |
| 122 | 6% | 73% | |
| 123 | 13% | 67% | |
| 124 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 125 | 11% | 41% | |
| 126 | 12% | 30% | |
| 127 | 4% | 18% | |
| 128 | 2% | 14% | |
| 129 | 7% | 12% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 131 | 2% | 4% | |
| 132 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 106 | 2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 2% | 96% | |
| 108 | 2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 109 | 5% | 92% | |
| 110 | 3% | 87% | |
| 111 | 3% | 85% | |
| 112 | 16% | 82% | |
| 113 | 13% | 65% | |
| 114 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 115 | 14% | 45% | |
| 116 | 16% | 31% | Majority |
| 117 | 4% | 15% | |
| 118 | 6% | 12% | |
| 119 | 2% | 5% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 121 | 2% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 69 | 3% | 96% | |
| 70 | 5% | 93% | |
| 71 | 12% | 88% | |
| 72 | 7% | 76% | |
| 73 | 19% | 69% | |
| 74 | 6% | 50% | Median |
| 75 | 7% | 44% | |
| 76 | 10% | 37% | |
| 77 | 4% | 27% | |
| 78 | 8% | 23% | |
| 79 | 10% | 14% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 81 | 2% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: CESOP–UCP
- Commissioner(s): Público and RTP
- Fieldwork period: 13–18 July 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1482
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.01%