Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 6–11 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.6% 37.1–42.2% 36.4–42.9% 35.8–43.6% 34.6–44.8%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 24.8% 22.6–27.2% 22.0–27.8% 21.5–28.4% 20.5–29.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.5% 7.2–10.1% 6.8–10.6% 6.5–11.0% 5.9–11.8%
Chega 1.3% 7.8% 6.6–9.4% 6.2–9.9% 5.9–10.3% 5.4–11.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.2% 5.1–7.6% 4.8–8.0% 4.5–8.4% 4.0–9.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 4.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 3.0–6.3% 2.6–6.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.2% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.5%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.8% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.2% 1.8–4.5% 1.5–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 112 106–120 104–122 103–123 100–126
Partido Social Democrata 79 67 59–73 57–75 57–76 54–79
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 13–21 12–21 11–22 9–23
Chega 1 12 11–15 10–18 8–19 8–22
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 11 6–14 6–15 6–15 5–18
CDS–Partido Popular 5 5 2–5 2–6 2–9 1–11
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–5 2–6 1–6 1–8
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 2–5 2–5 1–6 1–6

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.7%  
100 0.7% 99.5%  
101 0.6% 98.8%  
102 0.6% 98%  
103 2% 98%  
104 3% 95%  
105 2% 92%  
106 12% 90%  
107 3% 78%  
108 4% 75% Last Result
109 2% 71%  
110 15% 68%  
111 3% 53%  
112 5% 50% Median
113 3% 45%  
114 7% 42%  
115 9% 34%  
116 6% 25% Majority
117 3% 19%  
118 5% 17%  
119 0.8% 11%  
120 4% 11%  
121 0.7% 6%  
122 3% 6%  
123 0.6% 3%  
124 1.0% 2%  
125 0.2% 1.1%  
126 0.3% 0.8%  
127 0.1% 0.5%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.8%  
55 0.9% 99.1%  
56 0.4% 98%  
57 4% 98%  
58 1.2% 94%  
59 5% 92%  
60 3% 87%  
61 3% 84%  
62 4% 81%  
63 3% 77%  
64 2% 74%  
65 14% 72%  
66 7% 58%  
67 7% 51% Median
68 8% 44%  
69 16% 35%  
70 1.3% 20%  
71 0.9% 18%  
72 4% 17%  
73 3% 13%  
74 2% 10%  
75 3% 7%  
76 3% 5%  
77 0.4% 2%  
78 0.8% 1.5%  
79 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
80 0% 0.4%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.2% 99.8%  
9 0.1% 99.6%  
10 0.4% 99.5%  
11 4% 99.1%  
12 2% 96%  
13 7% 93%  
14 18% 86%  
15 5% 69%  
16 16% 63% Median
17 10% 47%  
18 15% 37%  
19 7% 22% Last Result
20 0.8% 15%  
21 11% 14%  
22 2% 3%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.1% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.8%  
9 2% 97%  
10 3% 95%  
11 38% 93%  
12 6% 54% Median
13 5% 49%  
14 31% 44%  
15 3% 13%  
16 1.5% 10%  
17 1.0% 8%  
18 3% 8%  
19 2% 4%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.9%  
22 0.3% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.4%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 1.0% 99.9%  
6 12% 98.8%  
7 8% 86%  
8 4% 78%  
9 8% 74%  
10 15% 66%  
11 2% 51% Median
12 18% 49% Last Result
13 14% 31%  
14 7% 17%  
15 7% 10%  
16 0.4% 2%  
17 0.9% 2%  
18 1.0% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 12% 99.1%  
3 22% 87%  
4 15% 66%  
5 45% 51% Last Result, Median
6 2% 6%  
7 1.0% 4%  
8 0.3% 3%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.9%  
11 0.2% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.4%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 4% 99.9%  
2 33% 96%  
3 26% 63% Median
4 26% 37% Last Result
5 5% 11%  
6 4% 5%  
7 0.4% 0.9%  
8 0.1% 0.5%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100% Last Result
2 6% 95%  
3 56% 89% Median
4 11% 34%  
5 20% 23%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 138 100% 132–146 131–149 129–150 124–152
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 131 99.4% 120–136 119–138 118–138 115–143
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 122 95% 117–131 116–132 113–132 109–137
Partido Socialista 108 112 25% 106–120 104–122 103–123 100–126
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 71 0% 63–78 60–80 59–81 58–85

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.3% 99.6%  
125 0.2% 99.4%  
126 0.1% 99.2%  
127 0.4% 99.0%  
128 0.8% 98.7%  
129 0.6% 98%  
130 1.4% 97%  
131 5% 96%  
132 9% 91%  
133 4% 82%  
134 4% 78%  
135 4% 74%  
136 5% 71%  
137 6% 66%  
138 13% 60%  
139 3% 47% Last Result, Median
140 4% 44%  
141 2% 40%  
142 6% 38%  
143 2% 32%  
144 13% 30%  
145 2% 17%  
146 6% 15%  
147 1.2% 9%  
148 0.7% 8%  
149 2% 7%  
150 4% 5%  
151 0.6% 1.2%  
152 0.2% 0.6%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0.2% 99.4% Majority
117 0.9% 99.2%  
118 1.2% 98%  
119 5% 97%  
120 11% 92%  
121 4% 81%  
122 3% 78%  
123 6% 75%  
124 2% 70%  
125 2% 67%  
126 2% 65%  
127 1.3% 63% Last Result
128 3% 62% Median
129 6% 59%  
130 2% 53%  
131 16% 51%  
132 12% 35%  
133 5% 22%  
134 2% 18%  
135 0.9% 15%  
136 5% 15%  
137 3% 10%  
138 4% 7%  
139 0.8% 2%  
140 0.2% 1.5%  
141 0.1% 1.3%  
142 0.2% 1.1%  
143 0.6% 1.0%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.6% 99.5%  
111 0.4% 98.9%  
112 0.7% 98.5%  
113 0.5% 98%  
114 1.0% 97%  
115 1.1% 96%  
116 1.2% 95% Majority
117 6% 94%  
118 13% 88%  
119 5% 75%  
120 8% 71% Last Result
121 5% 63%  
122 12% 58%  
123 11% 45% Median
124 4% 34%  
125 5% 31%  
126 3% 25%  
127 4% 22%  
128 6% 18%  
129 0.5% 12%  
130 0.9% 12%  
131 5% 11%  
132 4% 6%  
133 0.5% 2%  
134 0.2% 2%  
135 0.1% 1.3%  
136 0.4% 1.2%  
137 0.3% 0.8%  
138 0.2% 0.5%  
139 0.2% 0.3%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.7%  
100 0.7% 99.5%  
101 0.6% 98.8%  
102 0.6% 98%  
103 2% 98%  
104 3% 95%  
105 2% 92%  
106 12% 90%  
107 3% 78%  
108 4% 75% Last Result
109 2% 71%  
110 15% 68%  
111 3% 53%  
112 5% 50% Median
113 3% 45%  
114 7% 42%  
115 9% 34%  
116 6% 25% Majority
117 3% 19%  
118 5% 17%  
119 0.8% 11%  
120 4% 11%  
121 0.7% 6%  
122 3% 6%  
123 0.6% 3%  
124 1.0% 2%  
125 0.2% 1.1%  
126 0.3% 0.8%  
127 0.1% 0.5%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 4% 99.4%  
60 0.6% 96%  
61 0.3% 95%  
62 4% 95%  
63 2% 91%  
64 5% 89%  
65 2% 84%  
66 4% 82%  
67 1.3% 78%  
68 13% 77%  
69 3% 64%  
70 9% 61%  
71 7% 52%  
72 7% 45% Median
73 2% 38%  
74 16% 36%  
75 5% 20%  
76 3% 14%  
77 0.9% 12%  
78 3% 11%  
79 0.5% 8%  
80 2% 7%  
81 3% 5%  
82 0.2% 2%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations