Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 7–10 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.5% 36.5–40.4% 36.0–41.0% 35.5–41.5% 34.6–42.4%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 28.2% 26.4–30.0% 25.9–30.6% 25.5–31.0% 24.7–31.9%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.8–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.8% 4.9–6.8% 4.7–7.1% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–7.9%
Chega 1.3% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 113 106–119 104–119 103–121 100–122
Partido Social Democrata 79 77 74–85 73–86 70–88 69–90
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 15–19 14–19 13–20 11–22
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 7–14 7–14 6–15 5–16
Chega 1 7 4–8 4–8 3–8 3–11
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–5 2–6 2–6 2–6
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 1–2 1–2 1–3 0–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.3% 99.8%  
100 0.1% 99.5%  
101 0.9% 99.4%  
102 0.3% 98%  
103 2% 98%  
104 3% 97%  
105 3% 93%  
106 3% 91%  
107 3% 87%  
108 5% 85% Last Result
109 3% 79%  
110 8% 76%  
111 8% 68%  
112 6% 60%  
113 15% 54% Median
114 17% 39%  
115 2% 22%  
116 1.2% 19% Majority
117 2% 18%  
118 5% 16%  
119 7% 11%  
120 2% 4%  
121 0.6% 3%  
122 2% 2%  
123 0% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.2%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.1% 99.6%  
69 0.3% 99.5%  
70 2% 99.2%  
71 0.9% 97%  
72 0.6% 96%  
73 2% 95%  
74 8% 93%  
75 10% 85%  
76 10% 75%  
77 26% 65% Median
78 7% 39%  
79 2% 32% Last Result
80 5% 30%  
81 4% 25%  
82 4% 21%  
83 4% 17%  
84 1.4% 13%  
85 3% 12%  
86 4% 9%  
87 1.0% 5%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.2% 0.9%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.3% 99.9%  
11 0.3% 99.6%  
12 0.2% 99.3%  
13 2% 99.1%  
14 4% 97%  
15 22% 94%  
16 14% 71%  
17 14% 57% Median
18 32% 43%  
19 6% 10% Last Result
20 3% 4%  
21 0.4% 1.1%  
22 0.3% 0.7%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 4% 99.4%  
7 16% 96%  
8 10% 79%  
9 19% 69%  
10 5% 51% Median
11 26% 45%  
12 3% 19% Last Result
13 3% 16%  
14 10% 13%  
15 1.0% 3%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.3% 100%  
3 4% 99.7%  
4 26% 95%  
5 3% 69%  
6 15% 66%  
7 8% 50% Median
8 39% 42%  
9 0.4% 2%  
10 0.9% 2%  
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 12% 99.8%  
3 39% 88% Median
4 32% 48% Last Result
5 7% 16%  
6 9% 9%  
7 0% 0.3%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 52% 98% Median
2 44% 47%  
3 0.4% 3%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 52% 55% Last Result, Median
2 1.1% 3%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 140 100% 133–143 131–146 131–150 126–151
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 130 99.6% 123–134 120–136 120–137 116–140
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 122 93% 116–127 115–129 114–132 110–134
Partido Socialista 108 113 19% 106–119 104–119 103–121 100–122
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 78 0% 76–86 74–88 72–89 70–91

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0.1% 100%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.3% 99.7%  
127 0.3% 99.4%  
128 0.4% 99.1%  
129 0.3% 98.7%  
130 0.5% 98%  
131 5% 98%  
132 2% 93%  
133 5% 91%  
134 3% 85%  
135 4% 83%  
136 5% 79%  
137 11% 74%  
138 7% 63%  
139 3% 57% Last Result
140 19% 54% Median
141 3% 35%  
142 16% 32%  
143 9% 17%  
144 1.2% 7%  
145 1.2% 6%  
146 0.4% 5%  
147 2% 5%  
148 0.3% 3%  
149 0.2% 3%  
150 2% 3%  
151 0.5% 0.7%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.2% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.6% Majority
117 0.1% 99.4%  
118 1.1% 99.2%  
119 0.4% 98%  
120 3% 98%  
121 0.7% 95%  
122 1.1% 94%  
123 6% 93%  
124 4% 87%  
125 3% 83%  
126 12% 80%  
127 6% 68% Last Result
128 6% 62%  
129 3% 56%  
130 4% 53% Median
131 21% 49%  
132 11% 28%  
133 1.1% 17%  
134 7% 16%  
135 1.5% 8%  
136 3% 7%  
137 1.0% 3%  
138 1.1% 2%  
139 0.2% 1.2%  
140 0.8% 1.0%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.6%  
111 0.4% 99.4%  
112 0.4% 99.0%  
113 0.9% 98.6%  
114 1.1% 98%  
115 3% 97%  
116 4% 93% Majority
117 6% 89%  
118 6% 83%  
119 4% 77%  
120 7% 73% Last Result
121 1.1% 67%  
122 18% 65%  
123 8% 47% Median
124 7% 39%  
125 17% 32%  
126 2% 16%  
127 6% 13%  
128 0.8% 7%  
129 2% 7%  
130 0.8% 4%  
131 0.8% 3%  
132 2% 3%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.4% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.3% 99.8%  
100 0.1% 99.5%  
101 0.9% 99.4%  
102 0.3% 98%  
103 2% 98%  
104 3% 97%  
105 3% 93%  
106 3% 91%  
107 3% 87%  
108 5% 85% Last Result
109 3% 79%  
110 8% 76%  
111 8% 68%  
112 6% 60%  
113 15% 54% Median
114 17% 39%  
115 2% 22%  
116 1.2% 19% Majority
117 2% 18%  
118 5% 16%  
119 7% 11%  
120 2% 4%  
121 0.6% 3%  
122 2% 2%  
123 0% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.2%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.1% 99.5%  
71 0.6% 99.4%  
72 2% 98.8%  
73 1.0% 97%  
74 1.0% 96%  
75 1.2% 95%  
76 11% 93%  
77 17% 83%  
78 17% 66% Median
79 11% 49%  
80 6% 38%  
81 4% 31%  
82 3% 27%  
83 2% 23%  
84 7% 21% Last Result
85 2% 14%  
86 3% 12%  
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 6%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.2% 1.0%  
91 0.5% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations