Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 5–8 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.8% 36.9–40.8% 36.3–41.4% 35.8–41.9% 34.9–42.8%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.5–32.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.7%
Chega 1.3% 4.8% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 112 106–118 105–119 103–120 99–122
Partido Social Democrata 79 81 75–86 73–87 72–89 69–92
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 13–19 12–19 11–20 10–21
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 7–12 6–13 6–15 5–16
Chega 1 7 4–8 4–10 4–11 3–11
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 1–4 1–5 1–5 1–5
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 1 1–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.7%  
100 0.4% 99.3%  
101 0.4% 98.9%  
102 0.8% 98%  
103 0.9% 98%  
104 2% 97%  
105 2% 95%  
106 4% 93%  
107 4% 89%  
108 6% 84% Last Result
109 6% 78%  
110 13% 72%  
111 7% 59%  
112 6% 52% Median
113 11% 46%  
114 5% 35%  
115 7% 30%  
116 7% 23% Majority
117 4% 17%  
118 5% 13%  
119 3% 8%  
120 3% 5%  
121 1.2% 2%  
122 0.5% 0.8%  
123 0.1% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.4%  
71 0.6% 99.0%  
72 1.4% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 3% 93%  
75 4% 91%  
76 4% 87%  
77 6% 83%  
78 7% 77%  
79 11% 70% Last Result
80 8% 59%  
81 12% 52% Median
82 9% 40%  
83 9% 31%  
84 6% 22%  
85 4% 16%  
86 4% 11%  
87 3% 7%  
88 1.3% 4%  
89 1.2% 3%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.2% 0.9%  
92 0.2% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 0.5% 99.7%  
11 2% 99.1%  
12 2% 97%  
13 6% 95%  
14 5% 89%  
15 28% 84%  
16 28% 56% Median
17 10% 28%  
18 4% 18%  
19 11% 14% Last Result
20 2% 3%  
21 1.0% 1.3%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.5% 100%  
6 6% 98.5%  
7 17% 93%  
8 25% 76%  
9 18% 51% Median
10 10% 33%  
11 8% 22%  
12 6% 14% Last Result
13 4% 8%  
14 2% 4%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.7% 0.7%  
17 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 27% 98%  
5 7% 71%  
6 12% 63%  
7 13% 51% Median
8 29% 38%  
9 4% 10%  
10 2% 6%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100%  
2 46% 88% Median
3 5% 42%  
4 28% 36%  
5 8% 8% Last Result
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 45% 95% Median
2 43% 50%  
3 5% 7%  
4 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 77% 90% Last Result, Median
2 4% 13%  
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 137 100% 131–143 129–144 128–146 124–148
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 99.4% 122–134 121–135 119–136 115–138
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 121 88% 115–127 113–129 112–130 108–132
Partido Socialista 108 112 23% 106–118 105–119 103–120 99–122
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 83 0% 77–89 76–90 74–91 72–95

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.6%  
125 0.3% 99.4%  
126 0.5% 99.1%  
127 0.7% 98.6%  
128 1.2% 98%  
129 2% 97%  
130 3% 95%  
131 4% 91%  
132 4% 88%  
133 6% 83%  
134 9% 78%  
135 7% 69%  
136 7% 61%  
137 10% 55% Median
138 10% 44%  
139 7% 34% Last Result
140 5% 27%  
141 8% 22%  
142 3% 14%  
143 3% 11%  
144 3% 8%  
145 2% 5%  
146 1.2% 3%  
147 0.8% 1.4%  
148 0.2% 0.6%  
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0.4% 99.4% Majority
117 0.4% 99.0%  
118 0.6% 98.5%  
119 1.3% 98%  
120 2% 97%  
121 4% 95%  
122 2% 91%  
123 9% 89%  
124 4% 80%  
125 7% 76%  
126 8% 69%  
127 8% 61% Last Result
128 9% 53% Median
129 8% 44%  
130 7% 36%  
131 9% 29%  
132 5% 20%  
133 4% 16%  
134 4% 11%  
135 3% 7%  
136 2% 4%  
137 0.9% 2%  
138 0.6% 1.1%  
139 0.2% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.7%  
108 0.3% 99.6%  
109 0.3% 99.3%  
110 0.5% 99.0%  
111 0.8% 98.6%  
112 1.1% 98%  
113 2% 97%  
114 3% 95%  
115 4% 92%  
116 4% 88% Majority
117 5% 84%  
118 10% 79%  
119 8% 69%  
120 6% 61% Last Result
121 9% 55% Median
122 11% 46%  
123 4% 35%  
124 7% 30%  
125 8% 24%  
126 3% 16%  
127 4% 12%  
128 2% 8%  
129 3% 6%  
130 1.0% 3%  
131 0.8% 2%  
132 0.4% 0.9%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.7%  
100 0.4% 99.3%  
101 0.4% 98.9%  
102 0.8% 98%  
103 0.9% 98%  
104 2% 97%  
105 2% 95%  
106 4% 93%  
107 4% 89%  
108 6% 84% Last Result
109 6% 78%  
110 13% 72%  
111 7% 59%  
112 6% 52% Median
113 11% 46%  
114 5% 35%  
115 7% 30%  
116 7% 23% Majority
117 4% 17%  
118 5% 13%  
119 3% 8%  
120 3% 5%  
121 1.2% 2%  
122 0.5% 0.8%  
123 0.1% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.6% 99.4%  
74 2% 98.9%  
75 2% 97%  
76 2% 96%  
77 3% 93%  
78 4% 90%  
79 7% 86%  
80 8% 80%  
81 9% 72%  
82 4% 63%  
83 10% 59% Median
84 9% 49% Last Result
85 11% 40%  
86 8% 29%  
87 5% 22%  
88 6% 16%  
89 5% 10%  
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.2%  
94 0.3% 0.9%  
95 0.1% 0.6%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations