Opinion Poll by Aximage, 22–26 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 35.6% 33.3–38.0% 32.7–38.7% 32.1–39.2% 31.0–40.4%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 27.1% 25.0–29.3% 24.4–30.0% 23.9–30.5% 22.9–31.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 10.1% 8.7–11.7% 8.4–12.2% 8.1–12.6% 7.5–13.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.8% 4.8–7.1% 4.5–7.4% 4.3–7.8% 3.8–8.4%
Chega 1.3% 5.5% 4.5–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 4.0–7.4% 3.6–8.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 5.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.0–6.8% 3.8–7.1% 3.4–7.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.8% 1.8–5.3%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.2% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.3% 0.4–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 102 96–110 93–112 91–114 86–117
Partido Social Democrata 79 76 68–83 66–85 65–88 63–91
Bloco de Esquerda 19 21 18–24 16–25 15–27 14–30
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 7–14 6–14 6–15 5–17
Chega 1 8 5–11 4–11 4–11 3–14
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 8 5–11 4–12 4–12 4–13
Iniciativa Liberal 1 4 3–6 3–6 3–6 1–7
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8%  
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.4% 99.5%  
88 0.5% 99.1%  
89 0.4% 98.6%  
90 0.5% 98%  
91 0.7% 98%  
92 0.7% 97%  
93 1.5% 96%  
94 3% 95%  
95 2% 92%  
96 4% 90%  
97 4% 86%  
98 6% 83%  
99 6% 77%  
100 8% 71%  
101 4% 63%  
102 11% 59% Median
103 9% 48%  
104 7% 38%  
105 5% 32%  
106 5% 27%  
107 5% 22%  
108 2% 17% Last Result
109 4% 15%  
110 4% 12%  
111 2% 8%  
112 2% 6%  
113 0.7% 4%  
114 1.1% 3%  
115 1.2% 2%  
116 0.4% 0.9% Majority
117 0.2% 0.5%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.8%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.6%  
64 0.8% 99.1%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 2% 94%  
68 4% 92%  
69 3% 88%  
70 4% 85%  
71 4% 81%  
72 5% 77%  
73 3% 72%  
74 5% 68%  
75 8% 64%  
76 8% 55% Median
77 6% 48%  
78 9% 41%  
79 10% 32% Last Result
80 6% 22%  
81 3% 16%  
82 3% 13%  
83 2% 10%  
84 3% 8%  
85 1.2% 6%  
86 0.8% 4%  
87 0.6% 4%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 0.2% 99.8%  
14 0.5% 99.6%  
15 2% 99.1%  
16 5% 97%  
17 2% 93%  
18 13% 90%  
19 13% 77% Last Result
20 6% 64%  
21 22% 58% Median
22 16% 36%  
23 7% 20%  
24 4% 13%  
25 5% 9%  
26 2% 5%  
27 1.0% 3%  
28 0.7% 2%  
29 0.3% 1.2%  
30 0.5% 0.9%  
31 0.2% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.6% 99.9%  
6 8% 99.3%  
7 20% 91%  
8 11% 70%  
9 7% 60%  
10 23% 53% Median
11 4% 30%  
12 9% 26% Last Result
13 6% 17%  
14 7% 11%  
15 2% 4%  
16 1.2% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.6%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 9% 99.2%  
5 3% 91%  
6 7% 88%  
7 8% 81%  
8 28% 73% Median
9 18% 45%  
10 6% 26%  
11 18% 20%  
12 0.8% 2%  
13 0.7% 1.4%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 7% 99.6% Last Result
5 5% 92%  
6 22% 88%  
7 5% 65%  
8 11% 61% Median
9 22% 49%  
10 14% 27%  
11 7% 13%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.9% 1.3%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100% Last Result
2 0.6% 99.4%  
3 33% 98.8%  
4 37% 66% Median
5 14% 29%  
6 13% 14%  
7 0.5% 0.9%  
8 0.1% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 10% 11%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 133 99.7% 126–141 124–143 122–144 117–147
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 123 93% 116–131 114–133 112–134 107–138
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 112 27% 105–120 103–122 101–125 97–127
Partido Socialista 108 102 0.9% 96–110 93–112 91–114 86–117
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 76 0% 68–83 66–85 65–88 63–91

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.7% Majority
117 0.1% 99.6%  
118 0.5% 99.4%  
119 0.4% 99.0%  
120 0.4% 98.5%  
121 0.5% 98%  
122 1.1% 98%  
123 1.5% 97%  
124 3% 95%  
125 2% 92%  
126 4% 90%  
127 5% 86%  
128 4% 81%  
129 8% 77%  
130 5% 68%  
131 6% 63%  
132 6% 57%  
133 8% 51% Median
134 7% 44%  
135 6% 37%  
136 5% 30%  
137 5% 25%  
138 4% 21%  
139 3% 17% Last Result
140 2% 13%  
141 3% 11%  
142 1.4% 8%  
143 3% 7%  
144 1.4% 4%  
145 0.7% 2%  
146 0.6% 2%  
147 0.5% 1.0%  
148 0.2% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.7%  
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.5% 99.3%  
109 0.5% 98.8%  
110 0.3% 98%  
111 0.5% 98%  
112 1.1% 98%  
113 0.6% 96%  
114 1.3% 96%  
115 2% 94%  
116 5% 93% Majority
117 4% 88%  
118 3% 84%  
119 3% 81%  
120 7% 78%  
121 12% 71%  
122 5% 58%  
123 9% 53% Median
124 7% 44%  
125 8% 38%  
126 5% 30%  
127 4% 25% Last Result
128 3% 21%  
129 5% 18%  
130 3% 13%  
131 3% 10%  
132 2% 8%  
133 2% 6%  
134 1.5% 4%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.6% 2%  
137 0.2% 1.0%  
138 0.4% 0.8%  
139 0.2% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.6%  
98 0.5% 99.4%  
99 0.6% 98.9%  
100 0.8% 98%  
101 0.7% 98%  
102 1.2% 97%  
103 3% 96%  
104 3% 93%  
105 3% 90%  
106 4% 87%  
107 3% 83%  
108 8% 80%  
109 8% 72%  
110 6% 64%  
111 4% 58%  
112 9% 54% Median
113 8% 45%  
114 5% 37%  
115 6% 33%  
116 4% 27% Majority
117 4% 23%  
118 4% 19%  
119 5% 15%  
120 3% 10% Last Result
121 2% 7%  
122 1.0% 5%  
123 0.8% 4%  
124 0.8% 4%  
125 1.3% 3%  
126 0.5% 1.4%  
127 0.4% 0.8%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.2% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8%  
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.4% 99.5%  
88 0.5% 99.1%  
89 0.4% 98.6%  
90 0.5% 98%  
91 0.7% 98%  
92 0.7% 97%  
93 1.5% 96%  
94 3% 95%  
95 2% 92%  
96 4% 90%  
97 4% 86%  
98 6% 83%  
99 6% 77%  
100 8% 71%  
101 4% 63%  
102 11% 59% Median
103 9% 48%  
104 7% 38%  
105 5% 32%  
106 5% 27%  
107 5% 22%  
108 2% 17% Last Result
109 4% 15%  
110 4% 12%  
111 2% 8%  
112 2% 6%  
113 0.7% 4%  
114 1.1% 3%  
115 1.2% 2%  
116 0.4% 0.9% Majority
117 0.2% 0.5%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.8%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.6%  
64 0.6% 99.2%  
65 2% 98.5%  
66 2% 96%  
67 2% 94%  
68 3% 92%  
69 3% 88%  
70 3% 85%  
71 5% 82%  
72 5% 77%  
73 4% 72%  
74 4% 69%  
75 9% 65%  
76 7% 56% Median
77 7% 49%  
78 9% 42%  
79 10% 33%  
80 7% 24%  
81 3% 17%  
82 3% 13%  
83 2% 11%  
84 3% 8% Last Result
85 1.2% 6%  
86 0.9% 5%  
87 0.6% 4%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations