Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal and Sol, 2–5 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.3% 36.3–40.3% 35.8–40.8% 35.3–41.3% 34.4–42.3%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 29.7% 27.9–31.6% 27.4–32.1% 26.9–32.6% 26.1–33.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.8–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.5% 4.2–8.0%
Chega 1.3% 5.0% 4.3–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 110 103–116 102–118 100–119 96–121
Partido Social Democrata 79 82 77–88 75–89 73–90 70–95
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 14–19 13–19 12–20 10–22
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 7–13 7–14 6–15 5–16
Chega 1 8 4–10 4–11 4–11 3–11
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 1–2 1–4 1–4 0–4
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 0–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.1% 99.6%  
97 0.1% 99.5%  
98 0.3% 99.4%  
99 0.7% 99.1%  
100 2% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 3% 95%  
103 3% 93%  
104 5% 90%  
105 2% 84%  
106 4% 82%  
107 4% 78%  
108 8% 73% Last Result
109 11% 65%  
110 14% 55% Median
111 11% 41%  
112 8% 30%  
113 8% 22%  
114 2% 13%  
115 2% 12%  
116 1.2% 10% Majority
117 3% 9%  
118 2% 6%  
119 2% 4%  
120 1.4% 2%  
121 0.4% 0.6%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.5%  
72 0.9% 99.2%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 1.5% 97%  
75 2% 96%  
76 3% 94%  
77 5% 91%  
78 4% 86%  
79 6% 81% Last Result
80 10% 76%  
81 11% 66%  
82 10% 55% Median
83 8% 45%  
84 9% 37%  
85 5% 28%  
86 9% 24%  
87 4% 15%  
88 4% 11%  
89 4% 7%  
90 1.1% 4%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 0.5% 2%  
94 0.3% 1.1%  
95 0.5% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.5% 99.8%  
11 2% 99.3%  
12 2% 98%  
13 4% 96%  
14 4% 92%  
15 26% 87%  
16 24% 61% Median
17 8% 38%  
18 8% 30%  
19 17% 22% Last Result
20 3% 5%  
21 1.0% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.7%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 2% 99.5%  
7 13% 97%  
8 23% 85%  
9 18% 62% Median
10 13% 43%  
11 8% 31%  
12 10% 23% Last Result
13 5% 13%  
14 4% 8%  
15 2% 4%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 17% 99.3%  
5 7% 82%  
6 4% 75%  
7 14% 71%  
8 39% 56% Median
9 5% 17%  
10 5% 12%  
11 7% 7%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 51% 98.6% Median
2 38% 48%  
3 2% 9%  
4 7% 8%  
5 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 31% 98%  
2 53% 67% Median
3 12% 14%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 61% 63% Last Result, Median
2 1.2% 2%  
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 136 100% 129–141 128–143 126–145 122–147
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 126 98% 120–132 118–134 117–135 112–137
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 119 80% 113–125 111–127 110–129 106–131
Partido Socialista 108 110 10% 103–116 102–118 100–119 96–121
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 84 0% 78–89 77–91 75–92 72–96

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0.3% 99.7%  
123 0.2% 99.4%  
124 0.4% 99.2%  
125 0.6% 98.9%  
126 1.0% 98%  
127 1.4% 97%  
128 4% 96%  
129 3% 92%  
130 5% 89%  
131 3% 84%  
132 8% 81%  
133 6% 73%  
134 8% 67%  
135 6% 59% Median
136 10% 53%  
137 8% 43%  
138 7% 34%  
139 6% 28% Last Result
140 7% 22%  
141 6% 15%  
142 3% 9%  
143 2% 7%  
144 2% 4%  
145 1.2% 3%  
146 0.6% 2%  
147 0.5% 0.9%  
148 0.2% 0.4%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.2% 99.4%  
114 0.6% 99.2%  
115 0.4% 98.6%  
116 0.7% 98% Majority
117 2% 98%  
118 2% 96%  
119 3% 94%  
120 4% 91%  
121 5% 87%  
122 5% 82%  
123 8% 78%  
124 7% 70%  
125 9% 63%  
126 8% 54% Median
127 9% 46% Last Result
128 10% 38%  
129 6% 27%  
130 7% 21%  
131 3% 14%  
132 2% 11%  
133 2% 9%  
134 3% 7%  
135 2% 4%  
136 1.1% 2%  
137 0.3% 0.7%  
138 0.2% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.4% 99.6%  
107 0.2% 99.3%  
108 0.5% 99.1%  
109 0.5% 98.6%  
110 1.1% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 3% 95%  
113 3% 91%  
114 4% 89%  
115 5% 85%  
116 5% 80% Majority
117 10% 75%  
118 8% 65%  
119 12% 57% Median
120 6% 45% Last Result
121 7% 38%  
122 8% 31%  
123 5% 23%  
124 3% 18%  
125 6% 15%  
126 2% 10%  
127 3% 8%  
128 2% 5%  
129 1.2% 3%  
130 0.8% 1.4%  
131 0.3% 0.7%  
132 0.2% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.1% 99.6%  
97 0.1% 99.5%  
98 0.3% 99.4%  
99 0.7% 99.1%  
100 2% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 3% 95%  
103 3% 93%  
104 5% 90%  
105 2% 84%  
106 4% 82%  
107 4% 78%  
108 8% 73% Last Result
109 11% 65%  
110 14% 55% Median
111 11% 41%  
112 8% 30%  
113 8% 22%  
114 2% 13%  
115 2% 12%  
116 1.2% 10% Majority
117 3% 9%  
118 2% 6%  
119 2% 4%  
120 1.4% 2%  
121 0.4% 0.6%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 0.4% 99.4%  
74 1.0% 99.0%  
75 0.9% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 2% 95%  
78 4% 93%  
79 4% 89%  
80 6% 85%  
81 8% 79%  
82 12% 71%  
83 9% 60% Median
84 10% 51% Last Result
85 6% 40%  
86 8% 34%  
87 6% 27%  
88 7% 21%  
89 4% 14%  
90 3% 10%  
91 3% 7%  
92 0.8% 3%  
93 0.5% 2%  
94 0.5% 2%  
95 0.3% 1.3%  
96 0.5% 1.0%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations