Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE, 11–25 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.0% 36.9–41.3% 36.2–41.9% 35.7–42.5% 34.7–43.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 25.1% 23.2–27.1% 22.6–27.7% 22.2–28.2% 21.3–29.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 7.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.4–9.0% 5.0–9.6%
Chega 1.3% 7.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.4–9.0% 5.0–9.6%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 115 108–122 107–125 106–126 103–129
Partido Social Democrata 79 69 63–76 61–78 60–78 58–82
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 12–19 11–20 11–21 9–22
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 14 10–17 10–18 8–18 7–21
Chega 1 11 10–14 8–16 8–16 7–18
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.7% 99.6%  
104 0.5% 98.9%  
105 0.9% 98%  
106 2% 98%  
107 2% 96%  
108 4% 93% Last Result
109 4% 89%  
110 4% 85%  
111 6% 81%  
112 10% 75%  
113 6% 66%  
114 5% 59%  
115 9% 54% Median
116 8% 45% Majority
117 7% 37%  
118 6% 30%  
119 5% 23%  
120 4% 18%  
121 4% 14%  
122 2% 10%  
123 2% 8%  
124 2% 7%  
125 1.3% 5%  
126 2% 4%  
127 0.5% 2%  
128 0.5% 1.2%  
129 0.2% 0.6%  
130 0.3% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.5%  
59 0.5% 99.2%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 2% 96%  
62 2% 94%  
63 3% 92%  
64 2% 89%  
65 3% 87%  
66 2% 84%  
67 13% 82%  
68 17% 69%  
69 6% 52% Median
70 10% 46%  
71 4% 36%  
72 6% 31%  
73 3% 25%  
74 6% 22%  
75 5% 16%  
76 4% 11%  
77 2% 7%  
78 3% 5%  
79 0.8% 2% Last Result
80 0.6% 1.4%  
81 0.3% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.2% 99.8%  
9 0.5% 99.6%  
10 1.0% 99.1%  
11 7% 98%  
12 11% 92%  
13 5% 81%  
14 4% 75%  
15 8% 71%  
16 24% 64% Median
17 10% 39%  
18 16% 30%  
19 5% 13% Last Result
20 3% 8%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.3% 0.6%  
23 0.2% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 0.5% 98%  
9 1.2% 97%  
10 10% 96%  
11 5% 86%  
12 13% 81% Last Result
13 17% 68%  
14 10% 51% Median
15 10% 41%  
16 16% 30%  
17 10% 15%  
18 3% 5%  
19 0.6% 2%  
20 0.7% 2%  
21 0.7% 0.8%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.2% 99.8%  
7 0.5% 99.6%  
8 6% 99.1%  
9 3% 93%  
10 4% 90%  
11 43% 86% Median
12 16% 43%  
13 6% 27%  
14 15% 22%  
15 1.4% 7%  
16 3% 5%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.5% 0.8%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100%  
1 53% 72% Median
2 17% 19%  
3 1.4% 2%  
4 0.5% 0.6%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 31% 93%  
2 53% 61% Median
3 7% 8%  
4 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100%  
1 59% 66% Last Result, Median
2 5% 7%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 145 100% 138–151 136–153 135–154 132–157
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 131 99.9% 124–138 122–140 121–142 118–144
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 128 99.4% 122–135 120–138 119–140 115–142
Partido Socialista 108 115 45% 108–122 107–125 106–126 103–129
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 70 0% 64–77 62–78 61–79 58–83

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.2% 99.8%  
131 0.1% 99.7%  
132 0.4% 99.5%  
133 0.5% 99.1%  
134 0.8% 98.6%  
135 1.3% 98%  
136 2% 96%  
137 3% 95%  
138 2% 92%  
139 6% 90% Last Result
140 7% 84%  
141 3% 77%  
142 6% 73%  
143 5% 68%  
144 12% 63%  
145 8% 51% Median
146 14% 43%  
147 6% 29%  
148 4% 23%  
149 6% 19%  
150 2% 13%  
151 2% 11%  
152 3% 9%  
153 2% 6%  
154 2% 5%  
155 1.3% 2%  
156 0.4% 1.2%  
157 0.4% 0.8%  
158 0.2% 0.4%  
159 0% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.2% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.6%  
119 0.4% 99.4%  
120 0.9% 99.0%  
121 2% 98%  
122 1.2% 96%  
123 4% 95%  
124 5% 91%  
125 2% 86%  
126 7% 84%  
127 4% 77% Last Result
128 5% 73%  
129 7% 67%  
130 8% 60%  
131 10% 52% Median
132 5% 41%  
133 8% 36%  
134 6% 28%  
135 3% 22%  
136 4% 19%  
137 6% 16%  
138 2% 10%  
139 3% 9%  
140 2% 6%  
141 1.0% 4%  
142 2% 3%  
143 0.5% 1.2%  
144 0.3% 0.8%  
145 0.3% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.4% 99.7%  
116 0.3% 99.4% Majority
117 0.3% 99.1%  
118 0.7% 98.7%  
119 1.0% 98%  
120 2% 97% Last Result
121 3% 95%  
122 3% 92%  
123 4% 89%  
124 3% 85%  
125 4% 82%  
126 6% 78%  
127 10% 72%  
128 14% 62%  
129 9% 48% Median
130 9% 39%  
131 5% 31%  
132 7% 26%  
133 5% 19%  
134 3% 14%  
135 2% 11%  
136 2% 10%  
137 1.3% 8%  
138 3% 7%  
139 1.3% 4%  
140 1.4% 3%  
141 0.4% 1.3%  
142 0.4% 0.9%  
143 0.2% 0.4%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0.1% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.7% 99.6%  
104 0.5% 98.9%  
105 0.9% 98%  
106 2% 98%  
107 2% 96%  
108 4% 93% Last Result
109 4% 89%  
110 4% 85%  
111 6% 81%  
112 10% 75%  
113 6% 66%  
114 5% 59%  
115 9% 54% Median
116 8% 45% Majority
117 7% 37%  
118 6% 30%  
119 5% 23%  
120 4% 18%  
121 4% 14%  
122 2% 10%  
123 2% 8%  
124 2% 7%  
125 1.3% 5%  
126 2% 4%  
127 0.5% 2%  
128 0.5% 1.2%  
129 0.2% 0.6%  
130 0.3% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.1% 99.6%  
59 0.3% 99.5%  
60 1.1% 99.2%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 3% 94%  
64 2% 91%  
65 2% 89%  
66 3% 87%  
67 5% 84%  
68 14% 79%  
69 11% 65%  
70 9% 54% Median
71 9% 46%  
72 7% 37%  
73 4% 29%  
74 4% 25%  
75 6% 21%  
76 4% 16%  
77 5% 12%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 0.4% 1.3%  
82 0.3% 0.9%  
83 0.1% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations