Opinion Poll by Aximage, 23–26 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.2% 34.9–39.7% 34.2–40.4% 33.6–41.0% 32.5–42.2%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 24.0% 21.9–26.2% 21.3–26.8% 20.8–27.4% 19.9–28.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.9% 6.7–9.4% 6.3–9.8% 6.1–10.2% 5.5–11.0%
Chega 1.3% 7.6% 6.4–9.1% 6.1–9.5% 5.8–9.9% 5.3–10.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 6.5% 5.4–7.9% 5.1–8.3% 4.8–8.7% 4.4–9.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.5–7.6% 4.3–8.0% 3.9–8.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.2% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.4% 1.3–3.6% 1.1–4.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 0.9% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.0% 0.3–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 110 103–117 101–119 100–121 96–125
Partido Social Democrata 79 67 60–74 58–76 57–77 53–81
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 12–19 11–20 10–21 7–22
Chega 1 13 11–16 10–18 8–19 8–23
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 11 8–14 7–15 6–15 6–17
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 7–13 6–14 6–16 5–18
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 1–4 1–4 1–5 1–5
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.2% 99.6%  
97 0.4% 99.4%  
98 0.3% 99.0%  
99 0.8% 98.7%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 4% 95%  
103 2% 91%  
104 4% 89%  
105 6% 85%  
106 6% 79%  
107 8% 73%  
108 5% 65% Last Result
109 8% 60%  
110 11% 52% Median
111 9% 42%  
112 7% 32%  
113 5% 26%  
114 3% 20%  
115 3% 17%  
116 3% 14% Majority
117 2% 11%  
118 2% 9%  
119 2% 7%  
120 2% 5%  
121 1.1% 3%  
122 0.4% 2%  
123 0.3% 2%  
124 0.6% 2%  
125 0.4% 0.9%  
126 0.1% 0.5%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 0.2% 99.4%  
55 0.3% 99.2%  
56 0.7% 98.8%  
57 3% 98%  
58 3% 95%  
59 2% 93%  
60 1.3% 91%  
61 2% 89%  
62 3% 88%  
63 6% 84%  
64 7% 78%  
65 5% 72%  
66 11% 67%  
67 9% 56% Median
68 11% 47%  
69 10% 36%  
70 6% 26%  
71 4% 20%  
72 5% 16%  
73 1.4% 11%  
74 3% 10%  
75 1.4% 7%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.4% 3%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.1% Last Result
80 0.2% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.1% 100%  
8 0.6% 98.9%  
9 0.5% 98%  
10 0.9% 98%  
11 7% 97%  
12 8% 90%  
13 9% 82%  
14 8% 74%  
15 9% 65%  
16 23% 57% Median
17 8% 34%  
18 14% 26%  
19 5% 12% Last Result
20 3% 7%  
21 2% 4%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.8%  
9 2% 97%  
10 3% 95%  
11 30% 92%  
12 7% 62%  
13 11% 54% Median
14 26% 43%  
15 4% 17%  
16 5% 13%  
17 3% 8%  
18 2% 5%  
19 1.1% 3%  
20 0.5% 2%  
21 0.8% 2%  
22 0.5% 1.0%  
23 0.2% 0.5%  
24 0.2% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 0.4% 99.9%  
6 3% 99.5%  
7 2% 96%  
8 5% 95%  
9 12% 90%  
10 5% 78%  
11 39% 73% Median
12 14% 34%  
13 8% 20%  
14 4% 11%  
15 5% 7%  
16 1.1% 2%  
17 0.6% 1.0%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.9% 99.8%  
6 5% 98.9%  
7 14% 94%  
8 8% 80%  
9 7% 71%  
10 29% 65% Median
11 4% 36%  
12 6% 32% Last Result
13 18% 26%  
14 4% 8%  
15 1.1% 4%  
16 1.1% 3%  
17 0.6% 2%  
18 1.0% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 16% 99.8% Last Result
2 18% 83%  
3 55% 65% Median
4 8% 11%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 135 100% 129–143 127–145 125–147 121–150
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 125 96% 119–133 116–135 115–137 111–141
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 120 79% 113–127 112–130 109–132 105–135
Partido Socialista 108 110 14% 103–117 101–119 100–121 96–125
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 67 0% 60–74 58–76 57–77 53–81

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.1% 99.7%  
121 0.2% 99.6%  
122 0.4% 99.3%  
123 0.5% 98.9%  
124 0.6% 98%  
125 0.9% 98%  
126 1.4% 97%  
127 2% 95%  
128 3% 93%  
129 3% 90%  
130 3% 87%  
131 5% 84%  
132 10% 79%  
133 10% 69%  
134 5% 59%  
135 5% 54%  
136 7% 49% Median
137 10% 42%  
138 7% 32%  
139 4% 25% Last Result
140 4% 21%  
141 5% 17%  
142 2% 13%  
143 3% 11%  
144 2% 8%  
145 0.9% 6%  
146 2% 5%  
147 1.3% 3%  
148 0.8% 2%  
149 0.5% 1.2%  
150 0.3% 0.8%  
151 0.2% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.6%  
112 0.4% 99.5%  
113 0.7% 99.1%  
114 0.7% 98%  
115 1.3% 98%  
116 2% 96% Majority
117 2% 95%  
118 2% 93%  
119 3% 91%  
120 4% 88%  
121 5% 83%  
122 9% 78%  
123 10% 69%  
124 7% 59%  
125 8% 52%  
126 6% 45% Median
127 9% 39% Last Result
128 7% 30%  
129 2% 23%  
130 5% 21%  
131 3% 15%  
132 2% 12%  
133 3% 10%  
134 2% 7%  
135 2% 6%  
136 1.0% 4%  
137 1.0% 3%  
138 0.7% 2%  
139 0.7% 1.5%  
140 0.3% 0.8%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0.1% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.2% 99.5%  
107 0.5% 99.3%  
108 0.6% 98.7%  
109 0.7% 98%  
110 0.8% 97%  
111 2% 97%  
112 4% 95%  
113 2% 92%  
114 4% 90%  
115 6% 85%  
116 5% 79% Majority
117 9% 73%  
118 5% 65%  
119 9% 59%  
120 4% 50% Last Result, Median
121 10% 46%  
122 8% 36%  
123 4% 28%  
124 2% 23%  
125 4% 21%  
126 4% 16%  
127 3% 12%  
128 2% 9%  
129 2% 8%  
130 2% 5%  
131 1.0% 4%  
132 0.7% 3%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 0.5% 1.4%  
135 0.4% 0.9%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.2% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.2% 99.6%  
97 0.4% 99.4%  
98 0.3% 99.0%  
99 0.8% 98.7%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 4% 95%  
103 2% 91%  
104 4% 89%  
105 6% 85%  
106 6% 79%  
107 8% 73%  
108 5% 65% Last Result
109 8% 60%  
110 11% 52% Median
111 9% 42%  
112 7% 32%  
113 5% 26%  
114 3% 20%  
115 3% 17%  
116 3% 14% Majority
117 2% 11%  
118 2% 9%  
119 2% 7%  
120 2% 5%  
121 1.1% 3%  
122 0.4% 2%  
123 0.3% 2%  
124 0.6% 2%  
125 0.4% 0.9%  
126 0.1% 0.5%  
127 0.2% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 0.2% 99.4%  
55 0.3% 99.2%  
56 0.7% 98.9%  
57 3% 98%  
58 3% 95%  
59 2% 93%  
60 1.3% 91%  
61 2% 89%  
62 3% 88%  
63 6% 85%  
64 6% 78%  
65 5% 72%  
66 11% 67%  
67 9% 57% Median
68 12% 48%  
69 10% 36%  
70 6% 26%  
71 4% 21%  
72 5% 16%  
73 1.4% 12%  
74 3% 10%  
75 1.4% 7%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.4% 3%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.1%  
80 0.2% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations