Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal and Sol, 7–10 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.8% 36.9–40.8% 36.4–41.4% 35.9–41.9% 35.0–42.8%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 29.4% 27.6–31.3% 27.1–31.8% 26.7–32.3% 25.8–33.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.2% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.3–9.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Chega 1.3% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.3%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 112 107–119 105–120 103–122 99–124
Partido Social Democrata 79 82 77–88 75–90 74–91 72–95
Bloco de Esquerda 19 14 10–16 10–17 8–18 7–19
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 7–11 6–13 5–13 5–15
Chega 1 8 4–11 4–11 4–11 4–12
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 1–2 1–3 0–4 0–5
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 1–3 0–3 0–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.6%  
100 0.2% 99.5%  
101 0.3% 99.2%  
102 0.3% 99.0%  
103 1.2% 98.6%  
104 0.9% 97%  
105 3% 96%  
106 3% 94%  
107 5% 91%  
108 6% 86% Last Result
109 4% 80%  
110 8% 75%  
111 9% 67%  
112 8% 58% Median
113 6% 50%  
114 9% 44%  
115 7% 34%  
116 5% 28% Majority
117 7% 23%  
118 3% 16%  
119 4% 12%  
120 4% 9%  
121 1.4% 5%  
122 3% 4%  
123 0.3% 1.0%  
124 0.4% 0.7%  
125 0.2% 0.3%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 0.6% 99.3%  
74 2% 98.7%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 95%  
77 4% 92%  
78 6% 87%  
79 5% 82% Last Result
80 7% 76%  
81 11% 69%  
82 9% 59% Median
83 9% 49%  
84 8% 40%  
85 9% 32%  
86 9% 24%  
87 3% 14%  
88 3% 11%  
89 4% 9%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.2% 3%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.2%  
94 0.3% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 3% 99.3%  
9 1.2% 97%  
10 5% 95%  
11 10% 90%  
12 8% 80%  
13 14% 72%  
14 11% 58% Median
15 29% 48%  
16 13% 19%  
17 2% 6%  
18 2% 5%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 6% 97%  
7 25% 91%  
8 26% 66% Median
9 19% 40%  
10 7% 21%  
11 5% 14%  
12 4% 9% Last Result
13 3% 5%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.6% 0.9%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 10% 99.7%  
5 6% 89%  
6 4% 83%  
7 11% 79%  
8 42% 68% Median
9 6% 26%  
10 6% 20%  
11 14% 14%  
12 0.5% 0.7%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 49% 97% Median
2 42% 48%  
3 2% 6%  
4 4% 5%  
5 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 45% 96%  
2 44% 51% Median
3 6% 7%  
4 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 66% 71% Last Result, Median
2 3% 5%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 135 100% 129–141 127–142 126–143 122–145
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 126 98.7% 120–133 119–134 117–135 113–137
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 121 87% 115–128 113–129 112–131 108–132
Partido Socialista 108 112 28% 107–119 105–120 103–122 99–124
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 84 0% 78–90 77–91 76–93 73–96

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.2% 99.7%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.3% 99.4%  
124 0.5% 99.1%  
125 1.0% 98.6%  
126 0.7% 98%  
127 3% 97%  
128 3% 94%  
129 4% 92%  
130 4% 88%  
131 7% 83%  
132 7% 77%  
133 8% 69%  
134 8% 62% Median
135 9% 54%  
136 11% 44%  
137 6% 34%  
138 4% 28%  
139 7% 24% Last Result
140 6% 17%  
141 3% 12%  
142 4% 8%  
143 2% 4%  
144 1.0% 2%  
145 0.8% 1.3%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.2% 99.6%  
114 0.3% 99.4%  
115 0.4% 99.1%  
116 0.6% 98.7% Majority
117 0.6% 98%  
118 2% 97%  
119 2% 95%  
120 4% 94%  
121 3% 89%  
122 4% 86%  
123 11% 82%  
124 6% 71%  
125 6% 65%  
126 11% 59% Median
127 8% 48% Last Result
128 6% 40%  
129 9% 34%  
130 5% 24%  
131 5% 20%  
132 4% 14%  
133 4% 10%  
134 2% 6%  
135 2% 4%  
136 0.8% 2%  
137 0.7% 1.0%  
138 0.2% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.8%  
107 0.1% 99.7%  
108 0.2% 99.6%  
109 0.1% 99.4%  
110 0.3% 99.3%  
111 0.6% 98.9%  
112 1.0% 98%  
113 2% 97%  
114 4% 95%  
115 4% 91%  
116 3% 87% Majority
117 7% 85%  
118 9% 77%  
119 8% 68%  
120 4% 61% Last Result, Median
121 10% 56%  
122 9% 47%  
123 7% 38%  
124 8% 31%  
125 4% 23%  
126 4% 19%  
127 4% 15%  
128 4% 11%  
129 2% 7%  
130 2% 5%  
131 1.2% 3%  
132 1.2% 2%  
133 0.2% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.6%  
100 0.2% 99.5%  
101 0.3% 99.2%  
102 0.3% 99.0%  
103 1.2% 98.6%  
104 0.9% 97%  
105 3% 96%  
106 3% 94%  
107 5% 91%  
108 6% 86% Last Result
109 4% 80%  
110 8% 75%  
111 9% 67%  
112 8% 58% Median
113 6% 50%  
114 9% 44%  
115 7% 34%  
116 5% 28% Majority
117 7% 23%  
118 3% 16%  
119 4% 12%  
120 4% 9%  
121 1.4% 5%  
122 3% 4%  
123 0.3% 1.0%  
124 0.4% 0.7%  
125 0.2% 0.3%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 0.8% 99.0%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 5% 94%  
79 5% 89%  
80 6% 84%  
81 4% 78%  
82 9% 74%  
83 9% 65% Median
84 13% 56% Last Result
85 7% 43%  
86 6% 37%  
87 13% 31%  
88 5% 18%  
89 2% 13%  
90 4% 10%  
91 3% 6%  
92 1.2% 4%  
93 1.0% 3%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.2% 0.9%  
96 0.2% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations