Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Público and RTP, 4–11 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.0% 35.3–38.8% 34.9–39.3% 34.5–39.7% 33.7–40.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 30.0% 28.5–31.7% 28.0–32.2% 27.6–32.6% 26.9–33.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.5% 5.4–9.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.5% 5.4–9.0%
Chega 1.3% 6.0% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.4% 4.5–7.9%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.6–6.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 103 97–108 95–110 93–111 90–114
Partido Social Democrata 79 81 76–87 75–89 74–90 71–93
Bloco de Esquerda 19 12 8–14 7–15 7–16 7–18
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 13 9–15 8–15 8–16 7–18
Chega 1 10 7–11 7–11 6–11 4–13
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 6–9 5–10 5–10 4–12
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–5
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 2–4 2–4 1–4 1–5

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.5% 99.5%  
92 0.5% 99.0%  
93 1.1% 98%  
94 1.3% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 3% 95%  
97 5% 92%  
98 9% 87%  
99 9% 78%  
100 4% 69%  
101 5% 66%  
102 8% 61%  
103 13% 53% Median
104 7% 40%  
105 9% 33%  
106 4% 23%  
107 5% 19%  
108 6% 14% Last Result
109 3% 8%  
110 3% 5%  
111 1.3% 3%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.4% 0.9%  
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.1% Majority
117 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 0.6% 99.5%  
73 0.9% 98.9%  
74 2% 98%  
75 4% 96%  
76 6% 92%  
77 10% 87%  
78 7% 77%  
79 8% 70% Last Result
80 9% 62%  
81 4% 53% Median
82 5% 49%  
83 4% 44%  
84 6% 40%  
85 12% 34%  
86 10% 22%  
87 4% 11%  
88 2% 7%  
89 1.2% 5%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.4%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0.1% 0.4%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 6% 100%  
8 4% 94%  
9 5% 89%  
10 8% 85%  
11 25% 77%  
12 14% 52% Median
13 17% 38%  
14 11% 21%  
15 6% 10%  
16 1.2% 3%  
17 1.0% 2%  
18 1.3% 1.3%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.6% 99.9%  
8 5% 99.4%  
9 10% 95%  
10 5% 85%  
11 4% 80%  
12 8% 76% Last Result
13 20% 68% Median
14 19% 48%  
15 25% 29%  
16 2% 4%  
17 0.8% 2%  
18 0.5% 0.9%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.3% 100%  
5 1.2% 98.7%  
6 2% 98%  
7 6% 95%  
8 24% 89%  
9 10% 65%  
10 36% 55% Median
11 18% 19%  
12 0.5% 1.0%  
13 0.3% 0.5%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.2% 100%  
5 5% 98.8%  
6 60% 94% Median
7 10% 33%  
8 10% 24%  
9 6% 14%  
10 6% 8%  
11 0.6% 2%  
12 1.2% 1.3%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 40% 99.9%  
2 31% 60% Median
3 24% 29%  
4 3% 5%  
5 2% 2% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 57% 97% Median
3 19% 40%  
4 21% 21% Last Result
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0.1% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 127 99.2% 121–133 120–135 118–136 114–138
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 115 46% 109–122 108–122 106–124 103–126
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 115 42% 108–121 106–122 105–123 102–126
Partido Socialista 108 103 0.1% 97–108 95–110 93–111 90–114
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 83 0% 77–89 76–90 76–92 73–95

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.3% 99.8%  
115 0.3% 99.5%  
116 0.5% 99.2% Majority
117 0.9% 98.7%  
118 1.2% 98%  
119 0.9% 97%  
120 3% 96%  
121 5% 92%  
122 4% 87%  
123 13% 83%  
124 6% 70%  
125 6% 64%  
126 7% 58%  
127 4% 52%  
128 7% 47% Median
129 6% 40%  
130 9% 34%  
131 5% 25%  
132 5% 20%  
133 6% 15%  
134 2% 9%  
135 4% 7%  
136 2% 4%  
137 0.8% 1.4%  
138 0.3% 0.6%  
139 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.5% 99.6%  
104 0.7% 99.1%  
105 0.5% 98%  
106 0.8% 98%  
107 2% 97%  
108 2% 95%  
109 4% 94%  
110 4% 90%  
111 6% 86%  
112 11% 80%  
113 7% 69%  
114 8% 62%  
115 8% 54%  
116 4% 46% Median, Majority
117 9% 42%  
118 8% 34%  
119 5% 25%  
120 7% 20% Last Result
121 4% 14%  
122 5% 10%  
123 2% 5%  
124 0.7% 3%  
125 1.3% 2%  
126 0.5% 0.9%  
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.6%  
103 0.8% 99.3%  
104 0.6% 98.5%  
105 1.0% 98%  
106 3% 97%  
107 2% 94%  
108 6% 92%  
109 5% 86%  
110 9% 81%  
111 5% 72%  
112 5% 67%  
113 6% 62%  
114 5% 56%  
115 10% 51% Median
116 8% 42% Majority
117 7% 33%  
118 7% 26%  
119 5% 19%  
120 5% 15%  
121 5% 10%  
122 2% 5%  
123 1.2% 3%  
124 0.7% 2%  
125 0.4% 0.9%  
126 0.3% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.5% 99.5%  
92 0.5% 99.0%  
93 1.1% 98%  
94 1.3% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 3% 95%  
97 5% 92%  
98 9% 87%  
99 9% 78%  
100 4% 69%  
101 5% 66%  
102 8% 61%  
103 13% 53% Median
104 7% 40%  
105 9% 33%  
106 4% 23%  
107 5% 19%  
108 6% 14% Last Result
109 3% 8%  
110 3% 5%  
111 1.3% 3%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.4% 0.9%  
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.1% Majority
117 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 1.0% 99.0%  
76 4% 98%  
77 5% 94%  
78 5% 90%  
79 6% 84%  
80 7% 78%  
81 7% 72%  
82 7% 64%  
83 9% 58% Median
84 3% 48% Last Result
85 5% 45%  
86 11% 40%  
87 9% 28%  
88 9% 20%  
89 4% 11%  
90 2% 7%  
91 2% 5%  
92 0.6% 3%  
93 1.2% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.2%  
95 0.2% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations