Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Observador and TVI, 10–13 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 42.0% 39.5–44.5% 38.8–45.3% 38.2–45.9% 37.0–47.1%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 26.1% 23.9–28.4% 23.3–29.1% 22.8–29.6% 21.8–30.8%
Chega 1.3% 8.3% 7.0–9.8% 6.7–10.3% 6.4–10.7% 5.8–11.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.7% 5.5–8.1% 5.2–8.6% 5.0–8.9% 4.5–9.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.4% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.9–7.5% 3.5–8.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.2% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.5% 1.3–3.7% 1.1–4.2%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.9% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.3% 0.9–3.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.4% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.7% 0.6–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 119 111–127 110–130 108–133 105–136
Partido Social Democrata 79 71 63–78 61–80 59–81 56–85
Chega 1 14 11–18 11–20 11–22 8–24
Bloco de Esquerda 19 11 7–16 7–16 7–17 7–19
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 6–13 5–14 5–15 4–16
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–3 1–4 0–4 0–5
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 1–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.7%  
106 0.5% 99.4%  
107 0.6% 98.8%  
108 1.2% 98% Last Result
109 2% 97%  
110 3% 95%  
111 3% 93%  
112 2% 89%  
113 2% 87%  
114 7% 85%  
115 4% 78%  
116 6% 73% Majority
117 9% 68%  
118 7% 58%  
119 7% 51% Median
120 10% 45%  
121 6% 34%  
122 5% 29%  
123 3% 23%  
124 4% 21%  
125 3% 17%  
126 2% 14%  
127 2% 12%  
128 3% 10%  
129 0.7% 7%  
130 2% 6%  
131 0.7% 4%  
132 0.8% 4%  
133 0.8% 3%  
134 0.6% 2%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.6% 1.0%  
137 0.2% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.6%  
57 0.4% 99.1%  
58 0.7% 98.7%  
59 0.7% 98%  
60 0.5% 97%  
61 2% 97%  
62 2% 95%  
63 4% 93%  
64 3% 89%  
65 4% 86%  
66 3% 81%  
67 2% 78%  
68 11% 76%  
69 5% 66%  
70 6% 60%  
71 7% 55% Median
72 8% 48%  
73 5% 40%  
74 5% 35%  
75 7% 30%  
76 5% 23%  
77 6% 18%  
78 3% 12%  
79 3% 9% Last Result
80 2% 5%  
81 1.5% 4%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.3%  
84 0.3% 0.9%  
85 0.3% 0.6%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.8% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.2%  
10 0.6% 98.8%  
11 16% 98%  
12 8% 82%  
13 12% 75%  
14 27% 62% Median
15 5% 35%  
16 5% 30%  
17 10% 25%  
18 6% 14%  
19 2% 9%  
20 2% 6%  
21 2% 4%  
22 1.3% 3%  
23 0.7% 1.3%  
24 0.2% 0.6%  
25 0.2% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 99.9%  
6 0.2% 99.7%  
7 12% 99.6%  
8 4% 87%  
9 5% 83%  
10 15% 78%  
11 24% 64% Median
12 7% 39%  
13 6% 33%  
14 5% 26%  
15 8% 21%  
16 10% 13%  
17 1.4% 4%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.9%  
5 9% 99.4%  
6 7% 91%  
7 27% 84%  
8 3% 57%  
9 12% 53% Median
10 21% 42%  
11 5% 21%  
12 4% 16% Last Result
13 6% 12%  
14 3% 6%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.8% 1.3%  
17 0.2% 0.5%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 28% 95%  
2 52% 67% Median
3 10% 15%  
4 4% 5% Last Result
5 0.6% 0.9%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 41% 55% Median
2 13% 14%  
3 1.2% 2%  
4 0.5% 0.6%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 42% 90% Last Result, Median
2 25% 48%  
3 23% 24%  
4 0.5% 0.7%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 139 100% 132–147 130–150 128–152 125–155
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 130 99.7% 124–138 122–142 120–145 116–148
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 128 98% 120–137 118–139 117–141 113–144
Partido Socialista 108 119 73% 111–127 110–130 108–133 105–136
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 72 0% 64–79 62–80 60–82 56–86

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.3% 99.7%  
126 0.5% 99.4%  
127 1.1% 98.8%  
128 1.5% 98%  
129 0.6% 96%  
130 0.7% 96%  
131 2% 95%  
132 4% 93%  
133 3% 89%  
134 5% 86%  
135 7% 81%  
136 6% 74%  
137 8% 68%  
138 6% 61%  
139 9% 54% Last Result, Median
140 8% 46%  
141 5% 38%  
142 4% 33%  
143 7% 29%  
144 4% 22%  
145 3% 18%  
146 2% 15%  
147 3% 13%  
148 2% 10%  
149 1.0% 8%  
150 3% 7%  
151 1.0% 4%  
152 1.2% 3%  
153 0.8% 2%  
154 0.6% 1.4%  
155 0.3% 0.8%  
156 0.2% 0.5%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7% Majority
117 0.4% 99.5%  
118 0.8% 99.1%  
119 0.5% 98%  
120 1.0% 98%  
121 2% 97%  
122 1.3% 95%  
123 3% 94%  
124 3% 91%  
125 7% 88%  
126 7% 81%  
127 5% 74% Last Result
128 5% 69%  
129 4% 63%  
130 11% 59% Median
131 8% 48%  
132 10% 39%  
133 6% 29%  
134 2% 23%  
135 2% 21%  
136 3% 19%  
137 3% 16%  
138 4% 13%  
139 1.3% 9%  
140 2% 8%  
141 1.1% 6%  
142 1.1% 5%  
143 0.6% 4%  
144 0.7% 3%  
145 1.0% 3%  
146 0.5% 2%  
147 0.4% 1.1%  
148 0.3% 0.8%  
149 0.3% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.2% 99.8%  
113 0.2% 99.6%  
114 0.3% 99.3%  
115 0.6% 99.0%  
116 0.9% 98% Majority
117 1.2% 98%  
118 2% 96%  
119 3% 94%  
120 2% 91% Last Result
121 5% 89%  
122 3% 85%  
123 4% 82%  
124 7% 78%  
125 5% 70%  
126 6% 65%  
127 8% 59%  
128 9% 51% Median
129 7% 43%  
130 7% 36%  
131 3% 29%  
132 3% 26%  
133 4% 23%  
134 5% 19%  
135 2% 14%  
136 2% 12%  
137 3% 10%  
138 2% 7%  
139 1.2% 5%  
140 1.2% 4%  
141 0.8% 3%  
142 0.7% 2%  
143 0.9% 1.4%  
144 0.2% 0.6%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.7%  
106 0.5% 99.4%  
107 0.6% 98.8%  
108 1.2% 98% Last Result
109 2% 97%  
110 3% 95%  
111 3% 93%  
112 2% 89%  
113 2% 87%  
114 7% 85%  
115 4% 78%  
116 6% 73% Majority
117 9% 68%  
118 7% 58%  
119 7% 51% Median
120 10% 45%  
121 6% 34%  
122 5% 29%  
123 3% 23%  
124 4% 21%  
125 3% 17%  
126 2% 14%  
127 2% 12%  
128 3% 10%  
129 0.7% 7%  
130 2% 6%  
131 0.7% 4%  
132 0.8% 4%  
133 0.8% 3%  
134 0.6% 2%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.6% 1.0%  
137 0.2% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.4%  
58 0.9% 99.2%  
59 0.4% 98%  
60 0.6% 98%  
61 1.5% 97%  
62 2% 96%  
63 2% 94%  
64 3% 92%  
65 3% 88%  
66 5% 85%  
67 3% 81%  
68 5% 78%  
69 6% 72%  
70 6% 66%  
71 9% 59%  
72 7% 51% Median
73 5% 44%  
74 6% 39%  
75 4% 33%  
76 9% 29%  
77 4% 21%  
78 6% 17%  
79 3% 11%  
80 3% 8%  
81 1.5% 4%  
82 1.1% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.3% Last Result
85 0.3% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations