Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Observador and TVI, 17–20 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 40.4% 37.9–42.9% 37.2–43.7% 36.6–44.3% 35.4–45.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 28.5% 26.2–30.8% 25.6–31.5% 25.1–32.1% 24.0–33.3%
Chega 1.3% 8.4% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.5% 6.5–10.9% 5.9–11.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.3% 4.0–7.7% 3.6–8.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.2% 4.3–6.6% 4.0–7.0% 3.8–7.3% 3.3–8.0%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.4% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9% 1.2–4.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.2% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.5% 1.3–3.7% 1.1–4.2%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.7% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.9% 1.0–3.1% 0.8–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 115 107–122 105–123 103–126 99–130
Partido Social Democrata 79 77 70–84 68–87 66–88 63–91
Chega 1 14 11–19 11–21 11–22 9–25
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 7–11 5–13 5–14 3–16
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 5–11 5–13 5–14 4–16
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 1–4 1–5 1–5 1–6
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–3 1–4 0–4 0–5
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.6%  
100 0.2% 99.4%  
101 0.3% 99.2%  
102 0.5% 98.9%  
103 1.2% 98%  
104 0.8% 97%  
105 2% 96%  
106 2% 94%  
107 2% 92%  
108 4% 90% Last Result
109 4% 86%  
110 5% 82%  
111 5% 77%  
112 8% 72%  
113 5% 64%  
114 4% 59%  
115 7% 55% Median
116 4% 48% Majority
117 8% 44%  
118 5% 35%  
119 10% 30%  
120 4% 20%  
121 3% 16%  
122 6% 13%  
123 2% 7%  
124 1.0% 5%  
125 0.8% 4%  
126 1.1% 3%  
127 0.3% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.5%  
129 0.5% 1.0%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.3%  
65 0.6% 98.9%  
66 1.1% 98%  
67 0.9% 97%  
68 2% 96%  
69 3% 94%  
70 2% 91%  
71 2% 89%  
72 4% 87%  
73 6% 83%  
74 8% 77%  
75 8% 70%  
76 9% 61%  
77 5% 52% Median
78 6% 47%  
79 5% 41% Last Result
80 5% 36%  
81 7% 30%  
82 6% 24%  
83 5% 18%  
84 4% 13%  
85 2% 9%  
86 2% 7%  
87 1.3% 5%  
88 1.2% 4%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 0.7% 1.2%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.7%  
10 0.8% 99.3%  
11 15% 98%  
12 9% 83%  
13 13% 74%  
14 21% 61% Median
15 5% 40%  
16 7% 36%  
17 6% 29%  
18 10% 22%  
19 5% 12%  
20 2% 7%  
21 2% 6%  
22 2% 4%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.3% 0.8%  
25 0.2% 0.5%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 1.0% 99.7%  
4 0.7% 98.6%  
5 4% 98%  
6 2% 94%  
7 44% 91% Median
8 7% 48%  
9 10% 41%  
10 6% 31%  
11 15% 25%  
12 3% 10%  
13 2% 6%  
14 2% 4%  
15 1.1% 2%  
16 0.8% 1.0%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.8% 99.8%  
5 11% 99.0%  
6 16% 88%  
7 22% 72% Median
8 12% 50%  
9 10% 38%  
10 15% 28%  
11 4% 13%  
12 2% 9% Last Result
13 3% 7%  
14 3% 4%  
15 1.2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.6%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 11% 99.9% Last Result
2 8% 89%  
3 62% 81% Median
4 13% 19%  
5 4% 5%  
6 1.1% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 26% 95%  
2 52% 69% Median
3 12% 17%  
4 5% 6% Last Result
5 0.6% 0.8%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 38% 48%  
2 9% 9%  
3 0.4% 0.7%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 132 99.6% 124–138 122–140 120–143 116–146
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 124 90% 116–130 113–132 112–134 108–138
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 123 91% 116–130 113–132 111–134 108–138
Partido Socialista 108 115 48% 107–122 105–123 103–126 99–130
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 78 0% 71–85 68–87 67–89 64–92

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.6% Majority
117 0.6% 99.3%  
118 0.3% 98.7%  
119 0.5% 98%  
120 1.4% 98%  
121 1.1% 97%  
122 2% 95%  
123 2% 94%  
124 3% 91%  
125 4% 89%  
126 4% 85%  
127 7% 80%  
128 6% 74%  
129 6% 68% Median
130 5% 62%  
131 7% 57%  
132 7% 50%  
133 3% 43%  
134 4% 40%  
135 5% 36%  
136 12% 30%  
137 5% 19%  
138 4% 14%  
139 3% 9% Last Result
140 2% 6%  
141 0.9% 5%  
142 0.7% 4%  
143 0.8% 3%  
144 0.7% 2%  
145 0.7% 1.4%  
146 0.3% 0.8%  
147 0.1% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.3%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.2% 99.7%  
108 0.4% 99.5%  
109 0.3% 99.2%  
110 0.6% 98.8%  
111 0.4% 98%  
112 1.1% 98%  
113 2% 97%  
114 2% 95%  
115 3% 93%  
116 2% 90% Majority
117 3% 89%  
118 4% 85%  
119 7% 81%  
120 5% 73%  
121 6% 69%  
122 6% 62% Median
123 5% 57%  
124 6% 52%  
125 5% 46%  
126 11% 41%  
127 3% 30% Last Result
128 8% 27%  
129 6% 19%  
130 5% 13%  
131 2% 8%  
132 2% 6%  
133 1.1% 4%  
134 0.8% 3%  
135 0.7% 2%  
136 0.7% 2%  
137 0.2% 0.9%  
138 0.2% 0.6%  
139 0.1% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.2% 99.7%  
108 0.2% 99.5%  
109 0.4% 99.3%  
110 0.9% 98.9%  
111 0.8% 98%  
112 0.9% 97%  
113 2% 96%  
114 2% 95%  
115 2% 93%  
116 5% 91% Majority
117 4% 86%  
118 5% 81%  
119 5% 76%  
120 6% 71% Last Result
121 6% 65%  
122 5% 59% Median
123 5% 54%  
124 7% 49%  
125 5% 42%  
126 4% 37%  
127 11% 33%  
128 4% 22%  
129 6% 18%  
130 3% 12%  
131 3% 9%  
132 2% 6%  
133 1.3% 4%  
134 0.7% 3%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.6% 2%  
137 0.5% 1.2%  
138 0.4% 0.8%  
139 0.1% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.6%  
100 0.2% 99.4%  
101 0.3% 99.2%  
102 0.5% 98.9%  
103 1.2% 98%  
104 0.8% 97%  
105 2% 96%  
106 2% 94%  
107 2% 92%  
108 4% 90% Last Result
109 4% 86%  
110 5% 82%  
111 5% 77%  
112 8% 72%  
113 5% 64%  
114 4% 59%  
115 7% 55% Median
116 4% 48% Majority
117 8% 44%  
118 5% 35%  
119 10% 30%  
120 4% 20%  
121 3% 16%  
122 6% 13%  
123 2% 7%  
124 1.0% 5%  
125 0.8% 4%  
126 1.1% 3%  
127 0.3% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.5%  
129 0.5% 1.0%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 0.5% 99.2%  
66 0.7% 98.6%  
67 1.2% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 2% 95%  
70 2% 93%  
71 3% 91%  
72 3% 88%  
73 4% 85%  
74 9% 81%  
75 5% 72%  
76 11% 67%  
77 6% 56% Median
78 6% 51%  
79 4% 44%  
80 7% 40%  
81 5% 33%  
82 5% 28%  
83 7% 22%  
84 5% 15% Last Result
85 3% 11%  
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.1% 4%  
89 1.1% 3%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.0%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations