Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Observador and TVI, 17–27 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.7% 37.3–42.3% 36.6–43.0% 36.0–43.6% 34.8–44.9%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 28.0% 25.8–30.4% 25.1–31.0% 24.6–31.6% 23.6–32.8%
Chega 1.3% 9.1% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.2% 7.1–11.6% 6.5–12.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.3% 4.0–7.7% 3.6–8.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.0–5.7% 2.8–6.0% 2.5–6.6%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.1% 1.9–5.6%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.2% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.5% 1.3–3.7% 1.1–4.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 1.7% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.9% 1.0–3.1% 0.8–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 114 107–122 104–123 103–125 99–130
Partido Social Democrata 79 77 70–83 68–86 66–88 63–92
Chega 1 17 13–22 12–23 11–25 11–28
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 7–12 5–13 5–14 3–16
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 5 4–8 3–9 3–10 2–12
Iniciativa Liberal 1 4 3–6 3–6 3–6 2–9
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–4 0–4
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.2% 99.5%  
100 0.3% 99.3%  
101 0.8% 99.0%  
102 0.7% 98%  
103 1.4% 98%  
104 2% 96%  
105 2% 95%  
106 2% 92%  
107 2% 90%  
108 6% 88% Last Result
109 3% 83%  
110 4% 80%  
111 11% 75%  
112 6% 65%  
113 6% 59%  
114 7% 53% Median
115 4% 46%  
116 5% 42% Majority
117 5% 37%  
118 5% 31%  
119 6% 27%  
120 6% 21%  
121 4% 15%  
122 4% 11%  
123 2% 6%  
124 1.2% 4%  
125 1.0% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.4% 1.4%  
128 0.2% 1.0%  
129 0.2% 0.8%  
130 0.2% 0.6%  
131 0.2% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.6%  
64 0.7% 98.8%  
65 0.5% 98%  
66 0.9% 98%  
67 0.7% 97%  
68 2% 96%  
69 3% 94%  
70 2% 91%  
71 4% 89%  
72 3% 85%  
73 7% 82%  
74 6% 75%  
75 7% 69%  
76 8% 62%  
77 10% 54% Median
78 8% 44%  
79 7% 36% Last Result
80 8% 29%  
81 4% 21%  
82 4% 17%  
83 4% 13%  
84 2% 9%  
85 2% 7%  
86 1.3% 5%  
87 1.1% 4%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.9%  
92 0.2% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 5% 99.8%  
12 4% 95%  
13 9% 91%  
14 11% 82%  
15 8% 71%  
16 8% 63%  
17 10% 55% Median
18 15% 46%  
19 9% 31%  
20 4% 22%  
21 4% 18%  
22 5% 14%  
23 4% 9%  
24 2% 4%  
25 0.6% 3%  
26 0.8% 2%  
27 0.5% 1.2%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 1.1% 99.8%  
4 1.0% 98.7%  
5 5% 98%  
6 2% 93%  
7 44% 91% Median
8 7% 48%  
9 5% 41%  
10 7% 36%  
11 16% 29%  
12 6% 13%  
13 3% 7%  
14 2% 4%  
15 0.8% 2%  
16 1.1% 1.3%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 7% 98%  
4 6% 91%  
5 41% 86% Median
6 19% 45%  
7 15% 26%  
8 4% 11%  
9 4% 8%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.4% 1.2%  
12 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
13 0.2% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 0.7% 99.7%  
3 37% 99.0%  
4 23% 62% Median
5 19% 39%  
6 18% 19%  
7 0.5% 2%  
8 0.4% 1.2%  
9 0.6% 0.9%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 51% 78% Median
2 22% 26%  
3 2% 5%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 41% 80% Median
2 36% 40%  
3 2% 3%  
4 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 128 98% 121–136 119–137 116–139 112–144
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 123 89% 115–130 113–132 111–133 107–138
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 120 80% 112–127 110–129 108–131 104–136
Partido Socialista 108 114 42% 107–122 104–123 103–125 99–130
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 78 0% 71–84 69–87 67–89 64–93

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.2% 99.5%  
114 0.4% 99.3%  
115 0.8% 98.9%  
116 0.7% 98% Majority
117 1.3% 97%  
118 0.7% 96%  
119 2% 95%  
120 3% 93%  
121 2% 90%  
122 3% 88%  
123 3% 85%  
124 5% 83%  
125 6% 78%  
126 7% 71% Median
127 8% 64%  
128 7% 57%  
129 7% 50%  
130 6% 43%  
131 7% 38%  
132 4% 31%  
133 6% 26%  
134 5% 21%  
135 5% 15%  
136 2% 10%  
137 3% 8%  
138 2% 5%  
139 1.2% 3% Last Result
140 0.4% 2%  
141 0.4% 2%  
142 0.3% 1.1%  
143 0.3% 0.8%  
144 0.2% 0.6%  
145 0.1% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.7%  
107 0.2% 99.6%  
108 0.3% 99.4%  
109 0.5% 99.0%  
110 0.7% 98.5%  
111 1.1% 98%  
112 2% 97%  
113 2% 95%  
114 2% 94%  
115 3% 92%  
116 3% 89% Majority
117 4% 86%  
118 4% 83%  
119 7% 79%  
120 4% 71%  
121 8% 67% Median
122 7% 59%  
123 5% 52%  
124 10% 47%  
125 4% 37%  
126 5% 33%  
127 5% 28% Last Result
128 7% 23%  
129 4% 16%  
130 3% 11%  
131 2% 8%  
132 1.3% 6%  
133 2% 5%  
134 0.7% 2%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.4% 1.3%  
137 0.3% 0.9%  
138 0.2% 0.6%  
139 0.2% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.7%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 0.3% 99.4%  
106 0.5% 99.2%  
107 0.5% 98.7%  
108 1.2% 98%  
109 2% 97%  
110 2% 95%  
111 1.3% 93%  
112 2% 92%  
113 4% 90%  
114 4% 86%  
115 3% 82%  
116 9% 80% Majority
117 6% 71%  
118 7% 65%  
119 8% 58% Median
120 4% 50% Last Result
121 7% 46%  
122 4% 39%  
123 4% 35%  
124 7% 31%  
125 7% 24%  
126 4% 18%  
127 6% 14%  
128 3% 8%  
129 1.1% 5%  
130 1.1% 4%  
131 1.0% 3%  
132 0.5% 2%  
133 0.3% 1.3%  
134 0.2% 1.0%  
135 0.2% 0.8%  
136 0.2% 0.6%  
137 0.2% 0.3%  
138 0% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.2% 99.5%  
100 0.3% 99.3%  
101 0.8% 99.0%  
102 0.7% 98%  
103 1.4% 98%  
104 2% 96%  
105 2% 95%  
106 2% 92%  
107 2% 90%  
108 6% 88% Last Result
109 3% 83%  
110 4% 80%  
111 11% 75%  
112 6% 65%  
113 6% 59%  
114 7% 53% Median
115 4% 46%  
116 5% 42% Majority
117 5% 37%  
118 5% 31%  
119 6% 27%  
120 6% 21%  
121 4% 15%  
122 4% 11%  
123 2% 6%  
124 1.2% 4%  
125 1.0% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.4% 1.4%  
128 0.2% 1.0%  
129 0.2% 0.8%  
130 0.2% 0.6%  
131 0.2% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.6%  
65 1.0% 99.0%  
66 0.5% 98%  
67 0.6% 98%  
68 1.0% 97%  
69 2% 96%  
70 2% 94%  
71 3% 92%  
72 3% 89%  
73 6% 86%  
74 5% 80%  
75 6% 75%  
76 8% 69%  
77 7% 61%  
78 9% 54% Median
79 7% 45%  
80 8% 38%  
81 7% 30%  
82 4% 23%  
83 5% 19%  
84 4% 14% Last Result
85 2% 10%  
86 3% 8%  
87 1.0% 5%  
88 1.3% 4%  
89 0.9% 3%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.4%  
92 0.4% 1.1%  
93 0.3% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations