Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Observador and TVI, 29 December 2020–10 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 41.3% 38.9–43.9% 38.1–44.6% 37.5–45.2% 36.4–46.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 28.0% 25.8–30.4% 25.1–31.0% 24.6–31.6% 23.6–32.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.2% 6.0–8.6% 5.7–9.1% 5.4–9.4% 4.9–10.2%
Chega 1.3% 5.9% 4.8–7.3% 4.5–7.7% 4.3–8.0% 3.8–8.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.8% 3.6–7.1% 3.2–7.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.0–5.7% 2.8–6.0% 2.5–6.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.2% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.5% 1.3–3.7% 1.1–4.2%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.3% 0.9–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.6–2.5% 0.5–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 114 108–125 107–128 106–130 103–134
Partido Social Democrata 79 76 68–83 65–85 63–86 61–89
Bloco de Esquerda 19 13 9–16 7–18 7–18 7–20
Chega 1 9 6–11 4–12 4–14 3–14
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 5–12 5–13 5–14 3–15
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 4–8 4–9 3–10 3–12
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–3 1–4 0–4 0–5
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 0.5% 99.4%  
105 1.1% 99.0%  
106 2% 98%  
107 4% 96%  
108 5% 92% Last Result
109 5% 87%  
110 5% 83%  
111 9% 78%  
112 7% 69%  
113 7% 63%  
114 6% 55% Median
115 7% 49%  
116 8% 42% Majority
117 5% 34%  
118 4% 30%  
119 3% 25%  
120 3% 22%  
121 2% 20%  
122 2% 17%  
123 2% 15%  
124 1.2% 13%  
125 2% 12%  
126 1.3% 10%  
127 2% 8%  
128 2% 6%  
129 1.2% 4%  
130 0.9% 3%  
131 0.5% 2%  
132 0.8% 2%  
133 0.6% 1.1%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.2% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.6%  
62 0.8% 99.0%  
63 2% 98%  
64 1.3% 97%  
65 1.4% 95%  
66 1.4% 94%  
67 1.5% 92%  
68 2% 91%  
69 2% 89%  
70 3% 87%  
71 3% 84%  
72 3% 81%  
73 3% 78%  
74 7% 75%  
75 8% 68%  
76 12% 60% Median
77 5% 48%  
78 5% 43%  
79 6% 38% Last Result
80 9% 32%  
81 5% 23%  
82 6% 18%  
83 3% 12%  
84 3% 9%  
85 2% 6%  
86 1.4% 4%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.1%  
89 0.2% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 6% 99.9%  
8 4% 94%  
9 4% 91%  
10 6% 86%  
11 16% 80%  
12 8% 65%  
13 16% 56% Median
14 8% 41%  
15 16% 33%  
16 6% 16%  
17 2% 10%  
18 6% 8%  
19 1.3% 2% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 6% 99.5%  
5 2% 93%  
6 5% 91%  
7 4% 86%  
8 30% 82%  
9 9% 52% Median
10 11% 43%  
11 27% 32%  
12 2% 5%  
13 1.1% 4%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.1% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.4% 99.9%  
4 1.0% 99.5%  
5 13% 98%  
6 16% 85%  
7 18% 69%  
8 21% 51% Median
9 7% 31%  
10 10% 23%  
11 3% 13%  
12 3% 11% Last Result
13 4% 7%  
14 2% 4%  
15 1.3% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 19% 95%  
5 15% 76%  
6 44% 61% Median
7 6% 17%  
8 4% 11%  
9 4% 7%  
10 2% 4%  
11 0.6% 2%  
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 29% 95%  
2 50% 67% Median
3 10% 17%  
4 6% 6% Last Result
5 0.3% 0.5%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Median
1 15% 16%  
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 136 100% 128–145 127–148 125–150 122–153
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 99.4% 121–138 120–141 118–143 115–146
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 123 90% 116–132 114–136 113–137 110–141
Partido Socialista 108 114 42% 108–125 107–128 106–130 103–134
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 77 0% 68–83 65–85 63–86 61–89

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0.2% 99.7%  
123 0.6% 99.4%  
124 0.4% 98.8%  
125 1.0% 98%  
126 1.4% 97%  
127 3% 96%  
128 4% 93%  
129 3% 89%  
130 5% 87%  
131 6% 82%  
132 3% 76%  
133 6% 73%  
134 9% 67%  
135 7% 58% Median
136 9% 51%  
137 4% 42%  
138 7% 38%  
139 6% 31% Last Result
140 3% 25%  
141 5% 22%  
142 3% 17%  
143 2% 14%  
144 1.5% 12%  
145 1.1% 10%  
146 2% 9%  
147 1.3% 7%  
148 1.1% 5%  
149 1.5% 4%  
150 1.0% 3%  
151 0.7% 2%  
152 0.3% 1.1%  
153 0.5% 0.8%  
154 0.2% 0.4%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.7%  
116 0.5% 99.4% Majority
117 0.8% 98.9%  
118 1.4% 98%  
119 2% 97%  
120 3% 95%  
121 4% 92%  
122 7% 88%  
123 4% 81%  
124 7% 77%  
125 6% 70%  
126 7% 64%  
127 7% 57% Last Result, Median
128 12% 51%  
129 6% 39%  
130 3% 33%  
131 5% 30%  
132 3% 25%  
133 5% 22%  
134 3% 17%  
135 1.3% 15%  
136 2% 13%  
137 1.4% 11%  
138 2% 10%  
139 2% 8%  
140 1.1% 7%  
141 1.4% 6%  
142 2% 4%  
143 0.7% 3%  
144 0.7% 2%  
145 0.5% 1.4%  
146 0.5% 0.8%  
147 0.2% 0.4%  
148 0% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.3% 99.6%  
111 0.6% 99.3%  
112 1.0% 98.7%  
113 2% 98%  
114 3% 96%  
115 3% 93%  
116 4% 90% Majority
117 6% 86%  
118 2% 80%  
119 9% 77%  
120 5% 68% Last Result
121 4% 63%  
122 5% 59% Median
123 8% 54%  
124 5% 46%  
125 6% 41%  
126 6% 35%  
127 6% 28%  
128 6% 22%  
129 2% 17%  
130 2% 15%  
131 1.3% 12%  
132 2% 11%  
133 2% 10%  
134 1.2% 8%  
135 1.5% 7%  
136 2% 5%  
137 1.2% 4%  
138 0.9% 2%  
139 0.7% 2%  
140 0.3% 0.9%  
141 0.3% 0.6%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 0.5% 99.4%  
105 1.1% 99.0%  
106 2% 98%  
107 4% 96%  
108 5% 92% Last Result
109 5% 87%  
110 5% 83%  
111 9% 78%  
112 7% 69%  
113 7% 63%  
114 6% 55% Median
115 7% 49%  
116 8% 42% Majority
117 5% 34%  
118 4% 30%  
119 3% 25%  
120 3% 22%  
121 2% 20%  
122 2% 17%  
123 2% 15%  
124 1.2% 13%  
125 2% 12%  
126 1.3% 10%  
127 2% 8%  
128 2% 6%  
129 1.2% 4%  
130 0.9% 3%  
131 0.5% 2%  
132 0.8% 2%  
133 0.6% 1.1%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.2% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 0.7% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 1.5% 97%  
65 1.4% 95%  
66 1.2% 94%  
67 2% 93%  
68 2% 91%  
69 2% 89%  
70 3% 87%  
71 3% 84%  
72 3% 81%  
73 3% 78%  
74 6% 75%  
75 8% 69%  
76 11% 61% Median
77 6% 50%  
78 6% 44%  
79 5% 38%  
80 9% 33%  
81 5% 24%  
82 7% 19%  
83 3% 13%  
84 4% 10% Last Result
85 2% 6%  
86 2% 4%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.3%  
89 0.2% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.5%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations