Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal and Sol, 11–14 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.0% 37.1–41.0% 36.5–41.5% 36.0–42.0% 35.1–43.0%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.4% 25.3–30.8% 24.5–31.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Chega 1.3% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.8% 3.7–7.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.5%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 116 110–121 108–122 106–123 104–127
Partido Social Democrata 79 79 75–85 74–87 73–88 69–91
Bloco de Esquerda 19 11 8–15 8–16 7–16 7–18
Chega 1 9 7–11 5–11 4–12 4–13
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 7–12 6–13 5–14 5–15
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–3 1–3 1–4 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 1–2 0–3 0–3 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.4% 99.5%  
105 0.4% 99.2%  
106 1.4% 98.8%  
107 1.5% 97%  
108 2% 96% Last Result
109 3% 94%  
110 3% 91%  
111 7% 89%  
112 6% 81%  
113 7% 75%  
114 7% 68%  
115 9% 61%  
116 6% 52% Median, Majority
117 11% 46%  
118 7% 36%  
119 6% 29%  
120 7% 22%  
121 7% 15%  
122 3% 8%  
123 3% 5%  
124 0.9% 2%  
125 0.3% 1.2%  
126 0.3% 0.9%  
127 0.3% 0.7%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.7%  
69 0.2% 99.5%  
70 0.3% 99.3%  
71 0.5% 99.0%  
72 0.8% 98.5%  
73 2% 98%  
74 5% 95%  
75 7% 91%  
76 5% 84%  
77 5% 79%  
78 12% 73%  
79 12% 62% Last Result, Median
80 6% 49%  
81 7% 44%  
82 7% 37%  
83 9% 30%  
84 6% 21%  
85 6% 15%  
86 3% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.4% 4%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 4% 100%  
8 7% 96%  
9 6% 88%  
10 8% 82%  
11 24% 74% Median
12 13% 50%  
13 11% 36%  
14 9% 26%  
15 10% 17%  
16 5% 7%  
17 0.7% 2%  
18 0.7% 0.9%  
19 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 3% 100%  
5 3% 97%  
6 4% 94%  
7 5% 90%  
8 33% 85%  
9 16% 52% Median
10 4% 36%  
11 29% 31%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.7% 1.0%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 5% 97%  
7 27% 92%  
8 17% 65% Median
9 20% 47%  
10 8% 28%  
11 8% 19%  
12 4% 11% Last Result
13 4% 7%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.8% 1.2%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100%  
1 26% 98.5%  
2 59% 72% Median
3 10% 14%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 67% 82% Median
2 14% 15%  
3 0.5% 1.0%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 76% 90% Last Result, Median
2 6% 14%  
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 136 100% 131–142 129–143 127–144 124–148
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 99.4% 122–133 120–134 118–135 115–139
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 124 97% 118–130 117–131 115–133 112–136
Partido Socialista 108 116 52% 110–121 108–122 106–123 104–127
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 81 0% 76–86 75–88 74–89 70–93

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.3% 99.7%  
125 0.5% 99.5%  
126 0.7% 99.0%  
127 1.3% 98%  
128 2% 97%  
129 2% 95%  
130 2% 93%  
131 6% 91%  
132 6% 85%  
133 8% 79%  
134 7% 71%  
135 7% 64% Median
136 8% 57%  
137 6% 49%  
138 12% 43%  
139 6% 30% Last Result
140 7% 24%  
141 6% 18%  
142 5% 11%  
143 3% 7%  
144 0.9% 3%  
145 1.0% 2%  
146 0.3% 1.1%  
147 0.2% 0.9%  
148 0.2% 0.6%  
149 0.2% 0.4%  
150 0% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.3% 99.7%  
116 0.3% 99.4% Majority
117 0.6% 99.1%  
118 1.1% 98%  
119 2% 97%  
120 2% 96%  
121 2% 94%  
122 5% 92%  
123 7% 86%  
124 7% 80%  
125 6% 73%  
126 6% 68%  
127 8% 61% Last Result, Median
128 9% 54%  
129 10% 45%  
130 9% 35%  
131 10% 26%  
132 5% 16%  
133 5% 11%  
134 2% 6%  
135 2% 4%  
136 0.9% 2%  
137 0.5% 1.3%  
138 0.3% 0.8%  
139 0.2% 0.5%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.3% 99.8%  
113 0.3% 99.5%  
114 1.2% 99.2%  
115 1.0% 98%  
116 2% 97% Majority
117 2% 95%  
118 6% 93%  
119 3% 87%  
120 3% 85% Last Result
121 8% 81%  
122 8% 73%  
123 9% 66%  
124 7% 57% Median
125 7% 50%  
126 8% 43%  
127 7% 35%  
128 8% 28%  
129 6% 20%  
130 6% 14%  
131 3% 8%  
132 2% 5%  
133 1.2% 3%  
134 0.6% 2%  
135 0.3% 1.0%  
136 0.2% 0.7%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.4% 99.5%  
105 0.4% 99.2%  
106 1.4% 98.8%  
107 1.5% 97%  
108 2% 96% Last Result
109 3% 94%  
110 3% 91%  
111 7% 89%  
112 6% 81%  
113 7% 75%  
114 7% 68%  
115 9% 61%  
116 6% 52% Median, Majority
117 11% 46%  
118 7% 36%  
119 6% 29%  
120 7% 22%  
121 7% 15%  
122 3% 8%  
123 3% 5%  
124 0.9% 2%  
125 0.3% 1.2%  
126 0.3% 0.9%  
127 0.3% 0.7%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.2% 99.5%  
71 0.4% 99.3%  
72 0.5% 99.0%  
73 0.7% 98%  
74 2% 98%  
75 5% 95%  
76 7% 91%  
77 6% 84%  
78 9% 78%  
79 8% 70%  
80 11% 62% Median
81 8% 51%  
82 5% 43%  
83 7% 38%  
84 11% 31% Last Result
85 4% 20%  
86 7% 15%  
87 4% 9%  
88 2% 5%  
89 1.0% 3%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.2% 0.8%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations