Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Observador and TVI, 7–18 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 42.4% 39.9–45.0% 39.2–45.7% 38.6–46.3% 37.4–47.6%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 25.6% 23.5–27.9% 22.8–28.6% 22.3–29.2% 21.3–30.3%
Chega 1.3% 6.8% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.7% 5.1–9.1% 4.6–9.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.4% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.9–7.5% 3.5–8.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.4% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.9–7.5% 3.5–8.2%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6% 3.5–6.9% 3.1–7.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.2% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.5% 1.3–3.7% 1.1–4.2%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.6% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.7% 0.9–2.9% 0.7–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 121 115–131 113–133 111–134 108–138
Partido Social Democrata 79 70 62–76 60–77 59–79 56–83
Chega 1 11 9–14 8–15 7–17 5–19
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 7–11 5–13 4–14 2–16
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 5–13 5–14 5–15 4–16
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 5–10 5–12 4–12 3–14
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–3 0–4 0–4 0–5
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.2% 99.7%  
108 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
109 0.7% 99.1%  
110 0.7% 98%  
111 1.0% 98%  
112 0.9% 97%  
113 1.1% 96%  
114 3% 95%  
115 3% 92%  
116 4% 89% Majority
117 5% 85%  
118 9% 81%  
119 7% 72%  
120 10% 65%  
121 10% 55% Median
122 5% 44%  
123 3% 40%  
124 3% 36%  
125 5% 33%  
126 3% 28%  
127 4% 25%  
128 5% 21%  
129 4% 16%  
130 2% 12%  
131 2% 10%  
132 2% 8%  
133 2% 7%  
134 3% 5%  
135 0.8% 2%  
136 0.3% 1.2%  
137 0.2% 0.9%  
138 0.3% 0.7%  
139 0.1% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 99.5%  
57 0.4% 99.2%  
58 0.9% 98.8%  
59 1.5% 98%  
60 2% 96%  
61 2% 94%  
62 3% 92%  
63 7% 89%  
64 4% 82%  
65 6% 78%  
66 4% 72%  
67 6% 68%  
68 4% 62%  
69 6% 59%  
70 11% 52% Median
71 15% 41%  
72 4% 26%  
73 1.4% 22%  
74 2% 21%  
75 5% 19%  
76 6% 15%  
77 4% 9%  
78 1.2% 5%  
79 1.4% 4% Last Result
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.3% 1.1%  
82 0.2% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 0.3% 99.8%  
6 0.4% 99.4%  
7 2% 99.1%  
8 7% 97%  
9 6% 90%  
10 14% 85%  
11 40% 71% Median
12 8% 31%  
13 6% 22%  
14 11% 16%  
15 2% 5%  
16 0.5% 3%  
17 0.9% 3%  
18 1.0% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.9%  
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 2% 99.4%  
4 2% 98%  
5 3% 96%  
6 1.4% 93%  
7 48% 92% Median
8 12% 44%  
9 5% 32%  
10 6% 27%  
11 13% 21%  
12 2% 8%  
13 3% 6%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.6% 1.2%  
16 0.4% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.9%  
5 13% 99.4%  
6 8% 87%  
7 15% 78%  
8 6% 64%  
9 11% 57% Median
10 29% 47%  
11 4% 18%  
12 2% 14% Last Result
13 3% 11%  
14 4% 8%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.3% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 3% 99.5%  
5 10% 96%  
6 47% 87% Median
7 7% 39%  
8 5% 32%  
9 4% 28%  
10 14% 24%  
11 2% 9%  
12 6% 7%  
13 0.3% 1.0%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 30% 94%  
2 51% 64% Median
3 6% 13%  
4 7% 7% Last Result
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0.1% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Median
1 32% 37%  
2 4% 4%  
3 0.4% 0.5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 138 100% 132–147 130–149 128–150 124–154
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 130 99.6% 124–139 121–142 119–143 116–146
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 129 99.5% 123–139 121–141 119–142 115–146
Partido Socialista 108 121 89% 115–131 113–133 111–134 108–138
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 70 0% 63–77 60–78 59–80 56–83

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.2% 99.7%  
125 0.5% 99.4%  
126 0.5% 98.9%  
127 0.9% 98%  
128 0.7% 98%  
129 1.0% 97%  
130 1.2% 96%  
131 2% 95%  
132 3% 92%  
133 3% 89%  
134 5% 86%  
135 7% 80%  
136 8% 73%  
137 7% 65% Median
138 8% 58%  
139 6% 49% Last Result
140 3% 43%  
141 7% 40%  
142 3% 32%  
143 4% 29%  
144 2% 25%  
145 6% 23%  
146 6% 17%  
147 3% 11%  
148 2% 9%  
149 2% 7%  
150 2% 4%  
151 0.6% 2%  
152 0.8% 2%  
153 0.3% 0.9%  
154 0.2% 0.6%  
155 0.2% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.6% Majority
117 0.7% 99.4%  
118 0.6% 98.8%  
119 1.1% 98%  
120 1.0% 97% Last Result
121 1.4% 96%  
122 2% 95%  
123 1.5% 93%  
124 3% 91%  
125 3% 88%  
126 6% 85%  
127 6% 80%  
128 11% 74%  
129 6% 63%  
130 11% 57% Median
131 5% 46%  
132 5% 41%  
133 4% 36%  
134 5% 32%  
135 2% 27%  
136 4% 25%  
137 3% 21%  
138 5% 18%  
139 5% 13%  
140 2% 9%  
141 2% 7%  
142 2% 5%  
143 1.4% 3%  
144 0.5% 1.5%  
145 0.5% 1.0%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.4%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.3% 99.8%  
116 0.3% 99.5% Majority
117 0.3% 99.2%  
118 0.4% 98.9%  
119 1.3% 98%  
120 0.9% 97%  
121 2% 96%  
122 3% 95%  
123 3% 92%  
124 2% 90%  
125 8% 87%  
126 7% 80%  
127 6% 73% Last Result
128 10% 67% Median
129 9% 57%  
130 4% 48%  
131 7% 44%  
132 4% 37%  
133 3% 33%  
134 4% 30%  
135 4% 26%  
136 5% 21%  
137 3% 16%  
138 3% 14%  
139 1.4% 10%  
140 3% 9%  
141 3% 6%  
142 1.2% 3%  
143 0.4% 2%  
144 0.4% 2%  
145 0.5% 1.2%  
146 0.3% 0.7%  
147 0.1% 0.4%  
148 0.1% 0.3%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.2% 99.7%  
108 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
109 0.7% 99.1%  
110 0.7% 98%  
111 1.0% 98%  
112 0.9% 97%  
113 1.1% 96%  
114 3% 95%  
115 3% 92%  
116 4% 89% Majority
117 5% 85%  
118 9% 81%  
119 7% 72%  
120 10% 65%  
121 10% 55% Median
122 5% 44%  
123 3% 40%  
124 3% 36%  
125 5% 33%  
126 3% 28%  
127 4% 25%  
128 5% 21%  
129 4% 16%  
130 2% 12%  
131 2% 10%  
132 2% 8%  
133 2% 7%  
134 3% 5%  
135 0.8% 2%  
136 0.3% 1.2%  
137 0.2% 0.9%  
138 0.3% 0.7%  
139 0.1% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.6%  
57 0.4% 99.4%  
58 0.8% 99.0%  
59 1.1% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 2% 95%  
62 2% 93%  
63 5% 91%  
64 6% 86%  
65 7% 80%  
66 4% 73%  
67 5% 69%  
68 3% 64%  
69 7% 61%  
70 8% 54% Median
71 13% 46%  
72 7% 33%  
73 3% 26%  
74 2% 23%  
75 5% 20%  
76 5% 15%  
77 5% 11%  
78 2% 6%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.3% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations